what to do

beefcake · 09-06-12, 08:14 AM

Hmmm..Nice pick up on Errani..Yes looks like the only hope is live betting since serena is such a massive fav(rightly so).If Sara breaks early you might have your opp.Obviously if she wins the first set I would pull the trigger.Maybe bet Serena to win -1.5 sets.If sara wins one you can hedge off your -1.5

Good luck!

h3da · 09-06-12, 08:26 AM

Use betfair and lay errani

maletaja · 09-06-12, 10:03 AM

Use betfair and lay errani

Its not so easy. Because i need probably 25k cash to lay Errani(Errani bet was 50 bucks)
Secondly betafir takes 5% commision. Third there are chance that bookie wont pay me 25k and i am in debts...
I hoped that Errani would be 1:15 semis, but market money is on Serena

I probably try live bet, if Serena Chokes

Its very hard to monitize your future...

EaglesPhan36 · 09-06-12, 10:17 AM

If your Errani bet was $50, I'd say go take Serena @ -290 or so to win the Open. If Errani shocks, then you're obviously still golden with your original future with a little chunk shaved off for Serena's future. But if Serena wins - which is pretty likely I think we all believe - then you can manipulate things in the final to find a way to profit off of that still and not just have tossed $50 on a longer shot who eventually lost.

As most have said, very tough to hedge something like this when they are going to run into the #1 player en route to the title match where the ML is going to be superbly high.

maletaja · 09-06-12, 10:32 AM

If your Errani bet was $50, I'd say go take Serena @ -290 or so to win the Open. If Errani shocks, then you're obviously still golden with your original future with a little chunk shaved off for Serena's future.

I Azarenka wins Sharapova 6060, and Serena has match, Serena future could go even worse

Errani future was 1:40 before Vinci game, now is 1:70...