Sam Querrey to win Farmers

[Snowball]

+150
good size bet.

[PharaohUB]

Start an open parley, and just bet him to win next 3 games in it. He is -180 today. If he is -400 in the semis and finals. It pays +150. I have a feeling he won't be quite that large of a favorite. You will prob end up with a +250 payout instead. Unless someone retires before a set is completed I guess is your only risk.

[Snowball]

can't do that.

[PharaohUB]

can't do that.

I do it at 5 dimes all the time. Is that not where you play?

[PharaohUB]

I just don't see any value in +150 when he is only a -180 favorite today and will have two matches left. Not saying he won't win it... I like the pick. I just think you can maximize the payoff just by rolling your bets forward each match rather than taking this line.

[MagicDiceFlow]

This will be his toughest opponent so if he beats Malisse today, he's got a good chance as you mentioned.

[Snowball]

i thought you meant set up a parlay with blank future spots.
what you're talking about is just adding winnings and original wager amount.
there is no parlay multiple.
if Sam wins tonight, he's going to be a larger favorite in
the next match, vs. Ram or L.Mayer. probably -250 or higher.
and he'll also be favored in finals.
i would not be surprised to see him -300 vs Ram or L.Mayer.
you only get +250 if he is around -175 to -200 in both matches
and then you are laying more funds on top wagering more
on the bets. with the future i can hedge out at probably over
+200 at some point. so if i'm shooting to win 300 on 200 i can
hedge for 100 bucks making it win/win.

[PharaohUB]

If he is -300 in both remaining matches still pays off +175. And I've done this with an open parley before. I was just simplifying it because you said you couldn't do it that way. To each his own. Just making a suggestion.

[nycyellow9]

I got him at the start +275 to win, definitely saw this Malisse match as the toughest he'll get this tournament, hopefully he can get through this.

[Snowball]

it's not an open parlay. there is no parlay multiple.
yes you would make +175 if he is -300 in semis and finals.
but you're always risking the parent wager amount on each match.
this way I only have to risk the original funds on one match
because i can profitably hedge out after that. if you win the -180
tonight, the 100 only wins 55. then, you have to make another bet
at say -300 in semis. so you have to risk 155. i don't have to risk
anything but 100 and can hedge out either in semis or finals.

[Snowball]

also i'm going to cover Malisse +650, Russell +1200 and Mato +1500
all together they only cost $28. to cover $100 original
so winning would be $150 minus $28. still +122 for Querrey
and breakeven if Malisse, Russell or Mato.
my actual bets are larger, the 100 is just for math.

[PharaohUB]

it's not an open parlay. there is no parlay multiple.
yes you would make +175 if he is -300 in semis and finals.
but you're always risking the parent wager amount on each match.
this way I only have to risk the original funds on one match
because i can profitably hedge out after that. if you win the -180
tonight, the 100 only wins 55. then, you have to make another bet
at say -300 in semis. so you have to risk 155. i don't have to risk
anything but 100 and can hedge out either in semis or finals.

The 155 is still the 100 you started with. If you start with $100 on a future and I put $100 on Querrey to win. If I bet the winnings on the next game I'm not really risking anymore than you. Your future is now essentially worth $155 except your money is tied up and mine isn't. I wouldn't be risking risking anymore than you are starting with 100 on a future. And if you aren't tied up in a future you have way more "hedging" options and can use the reduced lines to your advantage as well. By hedging out against a future you will be paying the juice on the entire stake. If you just roll over your bets, you hedge out by just choosing not to roll over the entire bet. It's much much cheaper on your part. Sometimes futures are good bets. I just don't think the way things shape up that +150 is the most value you can get out of this bet, especially if you plan to hedge.

I respect your ability to pick winners, but you're talking to a Statistics guy .

[PharaohUB]

I'll ride with you on this bet except I will roll my bets over and we'll see whose pays off more!

[Snowball]

Querrey is (-365)

[Snowball]

(-390)
i actually just put 390 to win 100
because Sam is loose as a goose.
after tonight if he wins i will just ride the future.
i don't think Ram's volleys can shut Sam down at all.

update: (-420).

[Sawyer]

I got TB yes in this one. Lets hope Sam wins 7-6, 7-6

[Snowball]

I got TB yes in this one. Lets hope Sam wins 7-6, 7-6

what were the odds on that, must be high.
i do not like your chaces there.

[GoBlue77]

-485

[Snowball]

-270 as of now for finals
sure to go higher.

[Sawyer]

what were the odds on that, must be high.
i do not like your chaces there.

It was +175.

[Snowball]

nice hit Sawyer. everyone was surprised there was a tiebreaker
in Set 2.

[Snowball]