Favio Cipolla +130

[Snowball]

you have to go back about 20 weeks, but Flavio Cipolla
can play very well on Hard. scroll down:

http://tennis.matchstat.com/Player/Flavio%20Cipolla

i realize Sock has been playing a lot lately but he hasn't beaten
the class of players whom Cipolla has.
Take a look at the last long drought where Cipolla did not play
on a hard surface, it was before 30/2011. He still managed to win his
first four matches upon returning and went on to win against big names.
He has a 66-42 Hard record since 2008. Sock is only a marginally ATP player
who ranks 326 to Cipolla's 95. Cipolla is actually better on Hard than Clay.

*Flavio

[dangerfish]

Flip side of that is Cipolla has lost 6 straight and 9 of last ten matches. Struggling right now obviously. Sock's ranking really does not factor in. I think the line is about right, at the open there was value in Sock at around 1.88 imo.

[EaglesPhan36]

If Sock serves like he did in ATL, he'll beat Cipolla. I'd take a guy in decent form on the surface over a guy who is having to transition surfaces just about any time you get a reasonable price like this. I don't really see anything at all to like about Cipolla other than Sock is still young and still prone to being inconsistent - so he may struggle going back-2-back weeks when he hasn't done it in a while. Other than that, I'd take Sock ten times out of ten in this set-up personally.

[Snowball]

yeah, you both make good counterpoints, but the line is small, Cipolla is only +125 now.
Sock has recent form, but he's far from established. I backed him
in the win vs Johnson, which it took him 2 tiebreakers to accomplish,
and Johnson is another low level newb.
Cipolla's last match saw him take Marin Cilic to 3-6,4-6.
Not too shabby. Now I know you'll just say Sock fought Isner hard.
it's only a standard size bet for me.

[dangerfish]

yeah, you both make good counterpoints, but the line is small, Cipolla is only +125 now.
Sock has recent form, but he's far from established. I backed him
in the win vs Johnson, which it took him 2 tiebreakers to accomplish,
and Johnson is another low level newb.
Cipolla's last match saw him take Marin Cilic to 3-6,4-6.
Not too shabby. Now I know you'll just say Sock fought Isner hard.
it's only a standard size bet for me.

I don't know how to say this without coming off like condescending , but if you think Johson is another low level newb you might want to reconsider whatever methods you use to draw those conclusions.

[Snowball]

I don't know how to say this without coming off like condescending , but if you think Johson is another low level newb you might want to reconsider whatever methods you use to draw those conclusions.

Johnson has a record of 7-16 on Hard in ATP games.
That's dog chit.

http://tennis.matchstat.com/Player/Steve%20Johnson

[BrianLaverty]

Keep in mind la plays a lot slower then the other us hard courts..... definitely gives cipolla an advantage.... on the same play.

[dangerfish]

Johnson has a record of 7-16 on Hard in ATP games.
That's dog chit.
http://tennis.matchstat.com/Player/Steve%20Johnson

Ok, you win. Johnson is horrible. I didn't realize you were able to access stats. I guess you have an easy value play with Sjis.

[Snowball]

Keep in mind la plays a lot slower then the other us hard courts..... definitely gives cipolla an advantage.... on the same play.

i added a little @ +140 here but we all know it's not a match to go big on
regardless. Thanks for the insight about the court.. Cipolla's my pick
but let's face it this is nothing but degenerate action.

[wtt0315]

I watch sock play johnson in atlanta and he served and brian is right that court was super fast. Even though cipolla has playing like dog shit i think he gets it done tonight. If he can get into longer ralleys he has the advantage. I like the price

[brandoc]

Sock with a couple of wins under his belt is the play for me.

[Thurgood]

Is this match on TV?

[JNic]

Is this match on TV?

http://lsh.lshunter.tv/static/popups/102981349297560.html

I'm on Cipolla but Sock showing real signs of confidence.. 2 successive love games

[MagicDiceFlow]

There's a reason why Sock is #326 ....the dude's groundstrokes sucks. He hits like 20 unforced errors per set. Doesnt matter if he's got a decent serve or if this is hard court .....all that means zilch if you cant even finish a 3 stroke rally.

Good pick

[Snowball]

Cipolla cruised thru Set 6-3.

halfway there

[The Bet Master]

Cipolla quickly learned the return game on him it seems.

[BrianLaverty]

Well... actually the reason Sock is ranked whatever it is hes ranked is cause he's 19 and has been hurt for a few months.... This time next year he'll definitely be top 100.

[Snowball]

watch out for savvy Italian vets.

[HOT WINGS]

I liked Sock in this match but Cipolla is really out playing him so far.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Cipolla's playing the exact way he does on clay...consistent. Not overpowering or flashy, just gets the ball back into play and lets Sock make all the mistakes.

[Hangoverblack]

Keep em coming snowball. Great read here.

[HOT WINGS]

Nice call

[BrianLaverty]

This court is playing just like I thought...very slow. Almost playing like a clay court at this point... very high bounces. Good court for Cipolla.... bad court for the Americans.

[Thurgood]

Flavio!!! Made my night! My book is going to go bonkers because I went 3 units on this guy

[Lakey]

Great call Snowball.

[dangerfish]

nice read on Cipolla, give you credit for that one. I thought Sock gets it done there.