Polona Hercog +160 Sat. Swedish Open

[Snowball]

ok so Barthel(41) just learned she is going to the Olympics
and will play Singles for Germany. She's going to be the one with jitters,
not Hercog(86), who has known she's going for a very long time,
being little Slovenia's top tennis player.
Hercog has beaten Pironkova(62) and Georges(24) in her last 2 matches
at Swedish Open. Barthel beat Bondarenko(87 who has a losing record
on Clay) and Bertens(72).
The books have Barthel as the favorite, why ? Only because she
ranks higher than Hercog. But Hercog has beaten stiffer competition
in this tournament. No H2H. First match. Both 21/22 yrs old.
Clay is by far Hercog's best surface. She is a whopping 107-48
on Clay but a terrible 28-42 on Hard, and 2-5 on Grass.
She rules on Clay and drools on all others.
Barthel is a more balanced player who is mostly equal on all surfaces
and is only 34-24 on Clay.
Here's the kicker. Hercog is the defending champion. She beat Sweden's
own Johanna Larsson in last year's finals and we could see a rematch.
Are linesmakers only looking at the rankings to determine the lines ?
Has the sharp action not hit yet ?

Polona Hercog +160

[GoBlue77]

good info snowy. GL

[jbart28]

Sounds like a nice play on a dog who should be a pick'em.

I'm on it for fiddy bol and thanks

[makman]

.......
Hercog has beaten Pironkova(62) and Georges(24) in her last 2 matches
at Swedish Open. Barthel beat Bondarenko(87 who has a losing record
on Clay) and Bertens(72).
The books have Barthel as the favorite, why ? Only because she
ranks higher than Hercog. ....

Thanks for the information and sharing your thoughts with us. Good for this forum here.

You are reasoning your prediction by ranking of the opponents passed in the previous rounds, but questioning the lines of the sportbooks because they are based on ranking. That s a contradiction bro.

I am sure you are also aware tennis is not that simple, Women tennis is higly not simple, as we all know

Women tennis is very unstable and unpredictable.

But imo these two players are some of the most predictable and stable players of WTA.

I think Barthel will win. I have been backing Hercog in both matches against Goerges and Pironkova.
Goerges played like shitt, which usually she makes, and she was physically weaker compared to Hercog, and yes she is usually weak physically. Pironkova is a weaponless player.

But Barthel is different. She is a good player on almost all surfaces as you mentioned. In overall better tennis player than Hercog, has weapons, and will use against Hercog. Mentally stronger than Hercog. In the previous rounds, i noticed that Hercog has difficulties in maintaining her mental strength

Lines are low Barthel but i will be backing Barthel

She will win today, and will win probably in the final

GL

[Snowball]

well, makman, anytime we pick a dog
who is still +160 there's always going to be a legitimate
argument for the other side.
Right now Johansson is upsetting Larsson.

[Hangoverblack]

Here is another situation where a higher ranked player (Barthel) is assigned as a slight favorite by the books. Even more so in the WTA than the ATP, these situations make me cringe.

I wonder if we tracked the rate at which these -130 to -190 favorites hit, if it would be anywhere near 50%. I feel like the + odds dog wins at least half the time.

[Snowball]

uncork the champagne boys

[ParlayininHTown]

Hercog looking to make it back-to-back Swedish Open titles

[Hangoverblack]

Great win here! I think your first point about the Olympics was a strong one, too. Barthel lacked focus it seemed.

[Snowball]

since she is playing Johansson and not Larsson rematch
in the Finals, the line may be high, we will see.

[jbart28]

Thanks for the insight and pick! I is always nice to wake up and see the cha Ching !!!

[Snowball]

Hercog is -205 to repeat the Swedish Open championship
tomorrow.
I am adding this with Bartoli tonight. Parlayed, it's about -110 area.