Anna Lena Friedsam to beat Kathrin Woerle (Aschaffenburg, ITF)

[Pinocchio]

Obscure ITF tourney. Not many books offer this match, but Friedsam should win in two.
She's paying 1.66 for the W. I like.

I will put her in a parlay with Ferrer who happens to be 10-0 lifetime against Almagro to make the odds 2:1, though I must say Ferrer is paying nada and at these odds I see value in Almagro. I just don't think the latter can win, though...

[gregm]

Thanks for posting this. I love finding these obscure tourneys. Why do you say Ferrer is playing poorly, I have seen a few people say that as well. He dropped one set this whole tourney and that was to a guy like Robredo who has been in incredible form on the challenger circuit lately and Ferrer still ended up crushing Robredo in the third. He ended up beating Bolleli, Robredo and Dimitrov all pretty easily here in Sweden and none of these guys are top tier players but they arent slouches either. Ferrer is probably the hottest tennis player on the tour right now, going for his 5th title this year, one on grass and one on hard court as well.

He has only lost to the big 3 this year outside of one tourney in Monte Carlo where he was injured and he should have beat Murray at Wimbledon, overall this guy has been absolutely phenomenal this year.

Good luck with this itf match tomorrow, I am looking around for this to put something down on it if I can. Cheers

[Pinocchio]

Ferrer is not playing poorly, he's playing great. But he's paying zilch. Why risk your money? There are better bets out there waiting to be made... Almagro is usually competitive against Ferrer and a couple of times in the past, he almost beat him. I still think Ferrer takes this, but Almagro has better than one in four chances of winning in my opinion...
But like I said, I think Ferrer will prevail.