Live Bet on Tsonga???

good2go2mexico · 07-02-12, 01:09 PM

I don't trust Tsonga as far as I can throw him.

Vaughany · 07-02-12, 01:41 PM

Fish at plus money a set up is the value if u ask me

Semper Fidelis · 07-02-12, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Fish at plus money a set up is the value if u ask me

I was wondering if that was still good as well. I have Tsonga in a few parlays, perhaps I should hedge with Fish while the ml is still + ?

MrGambler · 07-02-12, 02:11 PM

Fish is the play. If u look at the match so far, Fish is the better player.

benandjerry · 07-02-12, 02:26 PM

Fish played out of his mind, I put some on Fish ML live after the interuption at +125, mostly as a hedge to my Tsonga future though. He may come back, its not like he's getting blown out, but it certainly would help him if this break takes Fish off his game a bit (I wouldnt put $ on Tsonga at current price the way Fish was playing).

ParlayininHTown · 07-02-12, 02:46 PM

Stay away ... There are better things to bet on if you look hard enough.

good2go2mexico · 07-02-12, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by MrGambler

Fish is the play. If u look at the match so far, Fish is the better player.

I would play Tsonga for tomorrow. The rain delay saved him same way it saved him against Wawrinka at the French. He will come out more focused tomorrow.

MrGambler · 07-02-12, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by good2go2mexico

I would play Tsonga for tomorrow. The rain delay saved him same way it saved him against Wawrinka at the French. He will come out more focused tomorrow.

I appreciate your thoughts, however, I do think Fish will be focused as well. I will hang on to my bet - if Fish starts to make a lot of UE, I will most likely withdraw with a small loss....but as the bet is placed and I can win a lot, I rather stay on it! Fish has been strong so far and nothing shows different - not even a rain delay.

good2go2mexico · 07-02-12, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by MrGambler

I appreciate your thoughts, however, I do think Fish will be focused as well. I will hang on to my bet - if Fish starts to make a lot of UE, I will most likely withdraw with a small loss....but as the bet is placed and I can win a lot, I rather stay on it! Fish has been strong so far and nothing shows different - not even a rain delay.

I'm not going to play it myself because I mostly feel that Tsonga has little to no mental tenacity. This circumstance just reminds me so much of the Wawrinka match at The French though. I'll pull for you either way since I'll just be watching as a fan.

MrGambler · 07-02-12, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by good2go2mexico

I'm not going to play it myself because I mostly feel that Tsonga has little to no mental tenacity. This circumstance just reminds me so much of the Wawrinka match at The French though. I'll pull for you either way since I'll just be watching as a fan.

Thanks. Keep in mind. Tsonga is a beast on Clay and on home soil. This is another story. Fish loves this fast surface with his serve

EaglesPhan36 · 07-02-12, 10:31 PM

Tsonga ain't no beast on clay. That was his best showing @ Roland Garros, he usually loses to the first solid player he faces there. He's better on the quicker surfaces like hard courts and has proven his mettle on grass quite well.

This was probably a great scenario for him to wake him out of his funk, but he's also dangerously close to dropping behind a break in the 2nd and is under immediate pressure @ deuce on his serve.

Luca Fury · 07-03-12, 01:01 AM

Players don't serving first after a delay, and unfortunately for Tsonga, he's serving at 40-40. He very easily could be down a break in the second set and then go on to lose it.

If Tsonga is down 0-2, it's hard to imagine a mentally weak player like him to come back from it. If the match didn't get delayed and he was down 0-2 in one session, he could conceivably out-play a tired Fish, but since they are already 1.5 sets through, fatigue won't be nearly as big of a factor.

I had a tiny parlay with Tsonga, but hedged out of it to break even either way after he lost the first set. Then, with the way the second set when, followed by the suspension, I bet Fish at +150 in live betting.

Considering the way Fish has been playing, Tsonga's flakiness/front-runner mentality, and the fact that he is serving down 1 set and now 2-2/40-40 in the second set, it seems to me that the line should be even money at worst for Fish. So, there's is definitive value in Fish at +150, IMO.

MrGambler · 07-03-12, 03:02 AM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

Players don't serving first after a delay, and unfortunately for Tsonga, he's serving at 40-40. He very easily could be down a break in the second set and then go on to lose it.

If Tsonga is down 0-2, it's hard to imagine a mentally weak player like him to come back from it. If the match didn't get delayed and he was down 0-2 in one session, he could conceivably out-play a tired Fish, but since they are already 1.5 sets through, fatigue won't be nearly as big of a factor.

I had a tiny parlay with Tsonga, but hedged out of it to break even either way after he lost the first set. Then, with the way the second set when, followed by the suspension, I bet Fish at +150 in live betting.

Considering the way Fish has been playing, Tsonga's flakiness/front-runner mentality, and the fact that he is serving down 1 set and now 2-2/40-40 in the second set, it seems to me that the line should be even money at worst for Fish. So, there's is definitive value in Fish at +150, IMO.

Agree 100%. Lets hope Fish can break him first thing after this weather break. He will definitely hold is own serve and Fish will have 3-1. The odds will drop to @1.70....

EaglesPhan36 · 07-03-12, 05:17 AM

Dont forget it was Tsonga who fired back from 0-2 against Federer last year. If there is one tournament he might believe he could do that, Wimbledon is it.

MrGambler · 07-03-12, 05:31 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Dont forget it was Tsonga who fired back from 0-2 against Federer last year. If there is one tournament he might believe he could do that, Wimbledon is it.

EaglesPhan36 - trust me, Fish take this one..load your money in this play!

Vaughany · 07-03-12, 05:48 AM

Thinking of loading up on Mayer and Fish. Both at plus odds and a set up...surely one of them will go on to win?

EaglesPhan36 · 07-03-12, 05:54 AM

Originally posted by MrGambler

EaglesPhan36 - trust me, Fish take this one..load your money in this play!

I am not loading up on anyone coming back from a delay. There are so many variables at play there. I hedged on my Tsonga future by taking Fish at +130 to cover it. I think Fish would have rolled him yesterday if they kept going. Now, second chances abound. We shall see how it pans out.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-03-12, 06:09 AM

And now we got a match. Break Tsonga.

MrGambler · 07-03-12, 07:15 AM

I think the break was great for Fish. He serves much better now...

MrGambler · 07-03-12, 07:18 AM

and Fish breaks back.....LOL! I just love Fish...amazing player...

nycyellow9 · 07-03-12, 07:55 AM

prick move by tsonga MTO after the set, take it on your serve sir. was never a fan of that

EaglesPhan36 · 07-03-12, 07:55 AM

Tsonga gaining control. This again why I did not advocate going big on anyone off the break. Momentum swings all over the place.

benandjerry · 07-03-12, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I am not loading up on anyone coming back from a delay. There are so many variables at play there. I hedged on my Tsonga future by taking Fish at +130 to cover it. I think Fish would have rolled him yesterday if they kept going. Now, second chances abound. We shall see how it pans out.

I did exactly the same, didnt want to hedge any this early, thought he'd handle Fish pretty well but felt forced to after that start. What number did you get your future at? I took mine before the draw and unfortunately got a pretty bad number at +2400.

That 2nd set tiebreak was mighty impressive by Tsonga.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-03-12, 08:58 AM

I got him @ +1500. That was after the 2nd round when nadal got the boot. Tsonga has this now. I doubt I will hedge next round. Kohlschreiber in his first Slam quarter likely to show some nerves and I Tsonga is superior as long as he shows up to start.

benandjerry · 07-03-12, 09:24 AM

I really dont like the idea of hedging vs Kohl either, but he's been impressing as of late as well... might put a little on Kohl if he gets any meningful +games spread pre game.

Vaughany · 07-03-12, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Thinking of loading up on Mayer and Fish. Both at plus odds and a set up...surely one of them will go on to win?

Only put 100 on Mayer in the end

EaglesPhan36 · 07-03-12, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by benandjerry

I really dont like the idea of hedging vs Kohl either, but he's been impressing as of late as well... might put a little on Kohl if he gets any meningful +games spread pre game.

I'm not worried about Kohlschreiber, maybe I am a fool but there is a reason this is his best Wimbledon ... cake ass draw. Haas was the toughest thing he had on his schedule since Rafa lost and he was able to pull that out - but Jaziri, Rosol coming off the Nadal win & then Baker? That's a pretty simple way to get to a quarter. Tsonga has already handled him twice this year on two different surfaces. I think Kohli is pleased to get his first Slam QF and I expect some nervous play from him. He's good enough to take a set, maybe even push it to five if Tsonga is playing like a dipshit ... but in the end, I expect Tsonga to advance. Once he gets to the semis than obviously, it'll be decision time. An option would be to take Murray or Ferrer as a future to off-set a potential loss, but damned if I can tell you who will win that one. They are pretty even, even if Murray is probably better on the surface.

benandjerry · 07-03-12, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I'm not worried about Kohlschreiber, maybe I am a fool but there is a reason this is his best Wimbledon ... cake ass draw. Haas was the toughest thing he had on his schedule since Rafa lost and he was able to pull that out - but Jaziri, Rosol coming off the Nadal win & then Baker? That's a pretty simple way to get to a quarter. Tsonga has already handled him twice this year on two different surfaces. I think Kohli is pleased to get his first Slam QF and I expect some nervous play from him. He's good enough to take a set, maybe even push it to five if Tsonga is playing like a dipshit ... but in the end, I expect Tsonga to advance. Once he gets to the semis than obviously, it'll be decision time. An option would be to take Murray or Ferrer as a future to off-set a potential loss, but damned if I can tell you who will win that one. They are pretty even, even if Murray is probably better on the surface.

I'd think he should handle Kohl as well, but I thought he'd handle Fish relatively easily too. I agree that Kohl's draw has been pretty soft, but he still has been playing impressively. Lets hope you are right. A Murray future does sound like a good idea, I'd certainly lean him over Ferrer at grass.