Rosol beat Nadal but is +140 vs Philipp Kohlschreiber

[Snowball]

no respect

[good2go2mexico]

Kohlschreiber beat Nadal 2 weeks ago. Really think Kohlschreiber will roll him. Look at history these huge longshots always flame out the next round.

[yisman]

kohlschreiber is better than Rosol. He should be at least -160. I'd actually bet him higher.

[Hangoverblack]

I honestly thought he would be +240-300.

This is a gift for Kohl backers.

[Blax0r]

I agree with the sentiments of the responders to this thread; Kohlscreiber is definitely (and rightfully) the favorite.

[good2go2mexico]

I expect it to go lower. I think the bookmakers are banking on the general public thinking oh wow this guy just beat Nadal what a great price. If this happens, I'm looking for Kohl to drop to the -140 to -150 range and will unload on him.

[Snowball]

i only put 20 bucks on Rosol
he's the hot hand
maybe he can get to the next level

[benrama]

I decided to have a quick look at guys that beat Nadal and what they did the following game:

- Kohlscreiber: next game lost to Tommy Haas @ $1.61
- Verdasco: next game lost to Berdych at $3.09
- Monfils: next game lost to Tsonga at $2.13
- F Mayer: next game lost to F Lopez at $1.87
- Fish: next game lost to Murray at $2.02
- Dodig: next game lost to Tipsy at $2.24

I didn't believe in the "let down" factor until I did this research - looks like beating Nadal is the sure fire way to get beaten the following game

[good2go2mexico]

I decided to have a quick look at guys that beat Nadal and what they did the following game:

- Kohlscreiber: next game lost to Tommy Haas @ $1.61
- Verdasco: next game lost to Berdych at $3.09
- Monfils: next game lost to Tsonga at $2.13
- F Mayer: next game lost to F Lopez at $1.87
- Fish: next game lost to Murray at $2.02
- Dodig: next game lost to Tipsy at $2.24

I didn't believe in the "let down" factor until I did this research - looks like beating Nadal is the sure fire way to get beaten the following game

That's great info. Appreciate you letting us know.

[wtt0315]

i had 2 futures with kohl and randwanski winning it all
hopefully nadal losing is really good for me

[good2go2mexico]

Wow I was way off people are hitting Kohlschreiber hard all the way up to -265 now, what a jump. I'll have to just parlay him now no value with that kind of chalk.

[PharaohUB]

Why is kohl 135-1 to win wimbledon and rosol 45-1 even though rosol is +220 under dog.

[maletaja]

I think it is more VALUABLE to bet Kohl future 1-135
not single match againt Rosol

[zilchy]

I decided to have a quick look at guys that beat Nadal and what they did the following game:

- Kohlscreiber: next game lost to Tommy Haas @ $1.61
- Verdasco: next game lost to Berdych at $3.09
- Monfils: next game lost to Tsonga at $2.13
- F Mayer: next game lost to F Lopez at $1.87
- Fish: next game lost to Murray at $2.02
- Dodig: next game lost to Tipsy at $2.24

I didn't believe in the "let down" factor until I did this research - looks like beating Nadal is the sure fire way to get beaten the following game

Yep Kohlschreiber looks like the obvious play here but none of those losses came in a slam though. This was Nadal trying his hardest and losing to a big dog.

The only comparable result in my mind is when Söderling beat Nadal early at Roland Garros and went on to play great again and again only to lose to Federer in the final, absolutely destroying Davydenko on the way who was still very good back then. Granted, that was on clay so it was a (much) bigger accomplishment and Rosol is unproven whereas Söderling was already pretty successful before that.

It's definitely the smallest of sample sizes but I kind of like Rosol to go on a bit of a tear as well before losing to a top player like Tsonga/Murray/Del Potro.

[Zacharrr]

I decided to have a quick look at guys that beat Nadal and what they did the following game:

- Kohlscreiber: next game lost to Tommy Haas @ $1.61
- Verdasco: next game lost to Berdych at $3.09
- Monfils: next game lost to Tsonga at $2.13
- F Mayer: next game lost to F Lopez at $1.87
- Fish: next game lost to Murray at $2.02
- Dodig: next game lost to Tipsy at $2.24

I didn't believe in the "let down" factor until I did this research - looks like beating Nadal is the sure fire way to get beaten the following game

that is WAY too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions. you might as well look at moon constellations when nadal lost his games.

[GunShard]

I decided to have a quick look at guys that beat Nadal and what they did the following game:

- Kohlscreiber: next game lost to Tommy Haas @ $1.61
- Verdasco: next game lost to Berdych at $3.09
- Monfils: next game lost to Tsonga at $2.13
- F Mayer: next game lost to F Lopez at $1.87
- Fish: next game lost to Murray at $2.02
- Dodig: next game lost to Tipsy at $2.24

I didn't believe in the "let down" factor until I did this research - looks like beating Nadal is the sure fire way to get beaten the following game

Nice trend. Sometimes trends can be broken though.

[yisman]

wow very foolish of me not to be kohl

[good2go2mexico]

wow very foolish of me not to be kohl

I parlayed him because he got too high to bet straight up. I am really, really, really kicking myself for not hitting him at -160. Mine own fault for being greedy thought it might drop assuming the public had gone on Rosol.

[yisman]

I thought it was too low but I got too busy with other stuff on friday and forgot to bet tennis.

I wasn't online sat. morning.