20/06 - Muller vs Falla

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  • loufunk
    SBR Sharp
    • 06-19-12
    • 270
    #1
    20/06 - Muller vs Falla
    In my opinion, odds on Muller are too low.
    Falla is quite good on grass and still has a H2H = 2-0 vs Muller

    2.58 on BF is juicy so I will try a small trading
    back 2.58
    lay 1.60

    My rating is:
    Muller - 98.08 pts
    Falla - 117.91 pts


    GL
    Tags: None
    • Blax0r
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-13-10
      • 688
      #2
      I'm on Falla as well, although it is a very risky play in my opinion. Good luck to us!
        Comment
        • Hangoverblack
          SBR MVP
          • 01-27-12
          • 1900
          #3
          Wow I am in trouble then.

          Have a big play on Muller. How can you back Falla on grass in this spot? Does your rating on Falla consider the surface?
            Comment
            • tevari
              SBR MVP
              • 02-02-07
              • 4959
              #4
              I can see it coming down to two tiebreaks. Muller has been pretty dreadful with his return game but as usual, his serve is nothing to laugh at.
                Comment
                • Blax0r
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-13-10
                  • 688
                  #5
                  well I'll start chalking this as a loss; Falla's getting dominated. Looking very good for Muller backers.
                    Comment
                    • Hangoverblack
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-27-12
                      • 1900
                      #6
                      Sorry you lost, and always appreciate your plays.

                      Booked Muller last night and added large to him this morning-was my biggest tennis play in awhile. I thought these odds were way off simply giving Falla too much credit here for recent strong play on clay, which I felt wouldn't translate to grass against that serve of Muller's.

                      Sure didn't expect a bagel; Falla must have a plane to London to catch.

                      Good luck to you
                        Comment
                        • loufunk
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 06-19-12
                          • 270
                          #7
                          Originally posted by Hangoverblack
                          Sorry you lost, and always appreciate your plays.

                          Booked Muller last night and added large to him this morning-was my biggest tennis play in awhile. I thought these odds were way off simply giving Falla too much credit here for recent strong play on clay, which I felt wouldn't translate to grass against that serve of Muller's.

                          Sure didn't expect a bagel; Falla must have a plane to London to catch.

                          Good luck to you
                          Nothing to add, your analysis is right, but what I saw is a player not really focused on the match, like he was just training.

                          Falla on clay is 63,15% win, on grass is 58,73% (since 2002)
                          My rating considers obviously the surface, giving an edge if the player showed up some improvements since last years on each surface we consider.

                          But, at the end, it remains a tough sport to predict and it's also the exciting part of this, the fact that every match is a challenge

                          So, good to you Hangoverblack
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