why is the line on benneteau so low?

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  • tevari
    SBR MVP
    • 02-02-07
    • 4959

    #1
    why is the line on benneteau so low?
    he's playing Lu tomorrow morning, who had an impressive run last week beating Tipsarevic, etc, but given the amount of tennis he played and the fact that he had to retire against Cilic in the second set, I was expecting to see Benny @ around -250 or so, he's at -185 right now. TI is tipping Benneteau 16-2. Anything I should be aware of before using him for parlay fodder?
  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #2
    Uncertainty. No leaked info about Lu. Not sure why it would be higher because if Lu was just gassed last week and not injured, it's more of a 50-50 match. TI's majority tips were garbage today, keep that in mind. At least the ones I recall.
    Comment
    • tevari
      SBR MVP
      • 02-02-07
      • 4959

      #3
      They were. Something ilke 24-2 on Dodig who clearly was tired from the last tourney and lost to Lorenzi in straights of all people, as a -500 fave. Erakovic too, 20-0 or something and got trounced by an out of form Paszek.
      Comment
      • ParlayininHTown
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 06-27-10
        • 7561

        #4
        This is a great week to fade a lot of TI picks, tevari. Favorites will go down left and right with Wimbledon starting next week.
        Comment
        • tevari
          SBR MVP
          • 02-02-07
          • 4959

          #5
          Believe me, I'm all about fading TI when the time is right. But more often than not, they get it right. I guess I'll pass on this match.
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #6
            I think the 13-5 on Llodra is a joke too. Guy has been trash for months. Even the price is set a bit to reflect that. Llodra -155. If he was in good form on Grass, he'd be closer to -200 I think. I still think Istomin has a shot for the upset.
            Comment
            • tevari
              SBR MVP
              • 02-02-07
              • 4959

              #7
              I'd probably play the over in that match. Ebden 8-3 vs Sela is kinda meh too. Guy is wildly inconsistent.
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #8
                One I don't get at all is their love for Zakapalova over Zheng. Zheng was solid in Birmingham and she's +100? This is probably why I don't bet WTA, that seems like a no brainer to try Zheng.
                Comment
                • tevari
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-02-07
                  • 4959

                  #9
                  don't understand that either. i thought zheng would take the whole thing, actually. probably some love for her showing at the french, taking a set off 'pova.
                  Comment
                  • tevari
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-02-07
                    • 4959

                    #10
                    Fukk it. Benneteau/Safarova/Cibulkova locked in @+119.
                    Comment
                    • BrianLaverty
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-02-07
                      • 2183

                      #11
                      Originally posted by tevari
                      Believe me, I'm all about fading TI when the time is right. But more often than not, they get it right. I guess I'll pass on this match.
                      I really beg to differ there..... If you faded all the plays that were 90% or higher on there, you would be + Units.
                      Comment
                      • tevari
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-02-07
                        • 4959

                        #12
                        90% or higher, yea. Woke up hoping to see something like 20-8 Benny-Lu but saw 25-2 and knew I'd be in trouble. Lu taking it to him.
                        Comment
                        • tevari
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-02-07
                          • 4959

                          #13
                          Looks like they are possibly going 3. Hopefully Lu's injury starts nagging him.
                          Comment
                          • tevari
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-02-07
                            • 4959

                            #14
                            Nvm. Lu saves 5 break points in that game and breaks Benneteau.
                            Comment
                            • tevari
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-02-07
                              • 4959

                              #15
                              nothing but frustration watching the benneteau/lu scoreboard. benny breaks in the 3rd for a 2-0 lead, gets broken back. 2-1 benny. Lu on serve, 15-40, dodges 2 break points and holds. wouldn't be surprised if lu wins 3 straight games as I expect benneteau to get broken here
                              Comment
                              • tevari
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-02-07
                                • 4959

                                #16
                                here comes the benneteau choke job. 5-3 serving for the match about to get broken
                                Comment
                                • GoldRush7
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-27-09
                                  • 2014

                                  #17
                                  How many match points can you blow? unreal.
                                  Comment
                                  • tevari
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-02-07
                                    • 4959

                                    #18
                                    turning this shit off. lu saves 2 match points and breaks.
                                    Comment
                                    • tevari
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-02-07
                                      • 4959

                                      #19
                                      the score stopped updating. stuck on adv. lu. wouldn't surprise me if benneteau broke his leg or something and retires.
                                      Comment
                                      • tevari
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-02-07
                                        • 4959

                                        #20
                                        pretty sick shit. finish the choke job by losing 5-7 in the third, please.
                                        Comment
                                        • GoldRush7
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-27-09
                                          • 2014

                                          #21
                                          Such is my fukin luck lately
                                          Comment
                                          • tevari
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-02-07
                                            • 4959

                                            #22
                                            Shit on in the breaker. Ugh.
                                            Comment
                                            • rumple
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-19-07
                                              • 2499

                                              #23
                                              Great heart by the asian LU.
                                              Comment
                                              • tevari
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-02-07
                                                • 4959

                                                #24
                                                3 match points saved. Derp
                                                Comment
                                                • MagicDiceFlow
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-15-12
                                                  • 4585

                                                  #25
                                                  Benny is a joke nowadays unless he's playing in a tourney with a heavy homecrowd. I wouldnt back this guy with a freeplay.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JNic
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-03-10
                                                    • 4272

                                                    #26
                                                    Wow amazing how strong Lu is on grass... Lu/Harrison seems almost to be a pick'em?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • beefcake
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 11-26-09
                                                      • 14029

                                                      #27
                                                      Yes its a pick.Early action on Harrison.Dont know why, I would back Lu..
                                                      Comment
                                                      • tevari
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-02-07
                                                        • 4959

                                                        #28
                                                        IMO Lu really should've lost today. Benny up 5-2 40-30 and a couple advantages ...
                                                        Comment
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