who has the greater chance of losing - tipsarevic or cilic? - HEDGING advice

good2go2mexico · 06-14-12, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by tevari

Wager Type : Parlay (4 team)
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 200.00 / 652.02(USD)
Accepted : 6/14/2012 3:41AM - PST

#1) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : Tennis Other Sports / Game
Selection : M. Cilic
Time : 6/14/2012 8:30:01AM - (PST)
Line : -700
Game Notes : A full set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid. If a full set is not completed, all money line wagers will be canceled.
#2) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : Tennis Other Sports / Game
Selection : J. Tipsarevic
Time : 6/14/2012 8:30:01AM - (PST)
Line : -950
Game Notes : A full set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid. If a full set is not completed, all money line wagers will be canceled.
#3) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : Tennis Other Sports / Game
Selection : J. Zheng
Time : 6/14/2012 4:30:01AM - (PST)
Line : -155
Game Notes : A full set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid. If a full set is not completed, all money line wagers will be canceled.
#4) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : Tennis Other Sports / Game
Selection : M. Oudin
Time : 6/14/2012 4:00:01AM - (PST)
Line : +105
Game Notes : A full set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid. If a full set is not completed, all money line wagers will be canceled.

i don't really see either having too hard of a time against Lu and Rosol, respectively. Tipsarevic fell from the ridiculous overnight price of -950 to now -705. Thinking about putting a hundy on Lu as a safety net. Thoughts?

Tip doesn't have a great history at AEGON but even with that said I can't see either him or Cilic losing. I think you should be fine without hedging.

Blax0r · 06-14-12, 09:32 AM

I'm on Lu actually; if I remember correctly, Tipsy was still the favorite, not -700 level favorite (I think my model spit out something closer to -150).

So given the above statement, I would say Tipsy has a higher chance of losing, but he and Cilic remain favorites.

tevari · 06-14-12, 09:34 AM

im going to put a hundy on Lu. anytime you get taken into a tiebreak by ryan sweeting suggests bad form or lack of motivation.

good2go2mexico · 06-14-12, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by Blax0r

I'm on Lu actually; if I remember correctly, Tipsy was still the favorite, not -700 level favorite (I think my model spit out something closer to -150).

So given the above statement, I would say Tipsy has a higher chance of losing, but he and Cilic remain favorites.

Interesting. Lu did kill me last round in a parlay. Maybe I'll throw something on the moneyline for a little action.

beefcake · 06-14-12, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by tevari

im going to put a hundy on Lu. anytime you get taken into a tiebreak by ryan sweeting suggests bad form or lack of motivation.

Totally 100% agree with THIS..

MUHerd37 · 06-14-12, 09:44 AM

Tipsy more likely to lose

tevari · 06-14-12, 10:12 AM

Get these 4 queens off these courts so my matches can start!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-14-12, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by tevari

im going to put a hundy on Lu. anytime you get taken into a tiebreak by ryan sweeting suggests bad form or lack of motivation.

It was Tipsarevic's first match on grass and Sweeting had played qualis here + a main draw match. Happens all the time in first-ups where a guy may not dominate the entire match. Look at Nadal today. His result w/Lacko was about the same as Tips w/Sweeting.

Tipsarevic wins IMO. Cilic should too, but I don't know much about Rosol on this surface other than he beat Baghdatis - but who doesn't beat Baghdatis.

tevari · 06-14-12, 10:57 AM

Of course, Cilic gets broken. Derp

tevari · 06-14-12, 11:05 AM

Looks like I hedged the wrong match.

good2go2mexico · 06-14-12, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by tevari

Looks like I hedged the wrong match.

Still early, I'm pulling for ya.

tevari · 06-14-12, 11:34 AM

Cilic looking better.

Blax0r · 06-14-12, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by tevari

Looks like I hedged the wrong match.

Hopefully, this will turn out to be some kind of reverse-jinx.

tevari · 06-14-12, 11:41 AM

Lu shitting on Tips.

ParlayininHTown · 06-14-12, 11:42 AM

Wish I hadn't been working earlier and could've replied to this. Lu (by far) is the one with whom you should've hedge. OP made the correct decision IMO.

I would've been stunned if Cilic lost, whereas Tipsy doesn't normally go deep in this tourney. Plus, Lu is an underrtaed grass-courter who probably feels more comfy on the surface this early in the grass-court season.

Best of luck tevari. I actually have Cilic in a parlay with Malisse and Spain. Decided to put that one together after Kohlschreiber cashed early this morning. Nothing better than a house-money parlay. haha.

good2go2mexico · 06-14-12, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by Blax0r

I'm on Lu actually; if I remember correctly, Tipsy was still the favorite, not -700 level favorite (I think my model spit out something closer to -150).

So given the above statement, I would say Tipsy has a higher chance of losing, but he and Cilic remain favorites.

When did Lu get good again? He was on a real losing streak before this tournament.

Blax0r · 06-14-12, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by good2go2mexico

When did Lu get good again? He was on a real losing streak before this tournament.

Well the match isn't over yet, and Lu can still get blown out.

However, his grass performance history is impressive (relative to other +700 dogs), and should be given more credit. Plus, taking out Karlovic on this surface recently is pretty cool.

good2go2mexico · 06-14-12, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by Blax0r

Well the match isn't over yet, and Lu can still get blown out.

However, his grass performance history is impressive (relative to other +700 dogs), and should be given more credit. Plus, taking out Karlovic on this surface recently is pretty cool.

That was the match I lost on a 5 teamer parlay so not cool for me lol. I did tail you on this though and put $50 on the +500 moneyline so you seem like you have a lot of good insight.

tevari · 06-14-12, 11:55 AM

Well. Cilic will close it out. Got Lu at +525. Tips winning would net me 250.00 more.

good2go2mexico · 06-14-12, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by tevari

Well. Cilic will close it out. Got Lu at +525. Tips winning would net me 250.00 more.

Lu looks better than I would have ever imagined.

tevari · 06-14-12, 12:05 PM

Great. Rain.

MUHerd37 · 06-14-12, 12:30 PM

Raining in England. Imagine that.

Demonata · 06-14-12, 12:31 PM

The matches going to be canceled till tomorrow?

tevari · 06-14-12, 12:33 PM

Hope not. Weather.com calls for 70% showers until late tonight. So, probably.

good2go2mexico · 06-14-12, 12:35 PM

I imagine they'll be able to get the rest of this match in. Really doubt that Nalbandian gets in though.

good2go2mexico · 06-14-12, 12:38 PM

Nevermind: Unfortunately play has been abandoned for the day here at the #AEGONChampionships. Play will resume tomorrow at 11am.

Demonata · 06-14-12, 12:38 PM

Ok thanks guys.

tevari · 06-14-12, 12:43 PM

Aids.

good2go2mexico · 06-14-12, 02:41 PM

Early start tomorrow with more rain forecast. 6 AM EST tomorrow announced.

tevari · 06-14-12, 03:20 PM

Hoping Lu comes out flat, but at least i have guaranteed profit w the hedge.

Blax0r · 06-14-12, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by tevari

Hoping Lu comes out flat, but at least i have guaranteed profit w the hedge.

Books should have a cash out option available in your situation; the guaranteed portion of your winnings is basically tied up until the match resolves.

Actually, does something like this exist on Betfair, Pinnacle, or some of the other US-avoiding books?

Demonata · 06-14-12, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by good2go2mexico

Early start tomorrow with more rain forecast. 6 AM EST tomorrow announced.

Where you see that?

tevari · 06-14-12, 03:33 PM

Atp app says 11am start. They are 5 hrs ahead of us on the east=6am est

moshi · 06-14-12, 11:16 PM

Dude...I was just posting in another thread about hedging Tipsy. Only thing is, hedging would cut about half the profit I would make if Tipsy ends up winning. What to do.....