Hedging advice for Errani +12500

[Blax0r]

You can skip the first 3 paragraphs; it's a long-winded read.

So, when I did Shari's contest, I fed the women's draw into my model and got my projections/picks for the bracket. One name, Sara Errani, really stood out; my model projected that she would go as far as the final, which was a big surprise back then since she was in Ivanovic's quarter, and Azarenka's half. After determining that my model didn't have any errors, I went ahead w/ my picks, and threw 1/4 of a unit on her (very small obviously).

Fast forward to now, and I am in a good position to make a nice chunk of cash. I can hedge out now and make a small profit by allocating funds on futures for the other 3 semifinalists.

However, I strongly believe I would be better served if I do a "two-stage" hedge. I would first put some money on Stosur straight up and wait for the result. If Errani still wins, I would perform the second stage of the hedge and put some cash on the other finalist.

My question is, what do you guys think would be the odds on the final (for both possible cases: Errani/Kvitova, Errani/Sharapova)?

I imagine it'd be similar to the current semifinal w/ Stosur (1.488), but would really appreciate the opinion of the tennis buffs here.

Thanks in advance.

[moses millsap]

I'd expect Sharapova or Kvitova to be both much larger favorites than Stosur's current price. -300 at least imho.

[EaglesPhan36]

Just go grab Stosur for about +210 to Win the FO and don't sweat it. You're guaranteed a finalist and then you can figure out how much you want to wager against a potential win on whichever one is in the final.

[maletaja]

I think Errani can easly win Stosur, but not Sharapova
Final would be i think 1:4 vs Errani-Sharapova not lower


I would do 2 stage hedge. I put money on the Stousur. And afterwards Sharapova/Kvitova. Bad thing is that the last bet should be very high to ensure your hedge
Second option is to lay betfair

[Blax0r]

I appreciate the help, thanks a lot guys. I've decided to monitor this semi and live-hedge out if I feel necessary.

The consensus seems that Errani's odds will be much worse in the finals, so my initial guess of ~-200 is off.

Anyhow, gooo Errani!

[beefcake]

Nice catch on that future!

[Blax0r]

Thanks beefcake, although it was really my model doing the picking (I actually have very little qualitative knowledge of women's tennis).

So I put roughly 2 units on Stosur during the match, luckily that didn't win since it would've been far less than my expected payout (pre-match).

I'll likely ask for more advice in this thread once the finals odds come out; will (again) compensate for solid thoughts.

[Pinocchio]

Whoever plays Errani in the final will win in straights. That's what I think.

[plankton43]

I have Errani $10/$700 to win the French Open. I am not sure how I can hedge if at all. The best I can hope for is to hedge on Sharapova in game, if Errani takes the first set. She's made it this far, I can only hope for the best.

[Blax0r]

I have Errani $10/$700 to win the French Open. I am not sure how I can hedge if at all. The best I can hope for is to hedge on Sharapova in game, if Errani takes the first set. She's made it this far, I can only hope for the best.

Assuming 1.274 odds on Sharapova, you can put about $63 on Maria to guarantee a ~$7 dollar profit.

I wish I could say Errani has a chance, but it's looking pretty bad.

[MexicanStallion]

Congrats on the pick. I'm not sure what money you have invested currently, but definitely hedge out here and try to split it up 50/50 if possible. Good call though.