Raonic -675

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  • Hangoverblack
    SBR MVP
    • 01-27-12
    • 1900
    #1
    Raonic -675
    I know Hidalgo probably has a house made out of Red Clay, but that doesn't change the fact that he has about a 1% chance to win today.

    Is there "value" in -675?

    I am thinking of emptying the mother ship into Rayonic moneyline. I am not doing this for attention. I know this strategy lands you broke eventually.

    Does anyone know of a reason not to back Milos here?

    TIA
    Tags: None
    • ParlayininHTown
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 06-27-10
      • 7561
      #2
      If you truly believe that Hidalgo only wins this match one out of every 100 times, you should be willing to lay as much as 100-to-1 odds on Raonic. That moneyline is less than 7-to-1, so by your math, yes, it's a great value.

      With that said, I would suggest that you stay the F away from this one. Hidalgo has come up with some great first-round upsets before, and Raonic's ML is reflective of that. I think Raonic wins and could get deep in this tournament, but I can't fade Hidalgo knowing what he has accomplished in the first round of the FO in previous years.

      If anything, make a smaller play on this. This isn't solid enough for you to go "all-in." Save those crazy bets for a game where the talent differential is astronomical, such as an early season matchup in college football. Some team will be around a 15-to-1 favorite, but they'll win 56-10, and you'll never have to worry about losing your money.
        Comment
        • Hangoverblack
          SBR MVP
          • 01-27-12
          • 1900
          #3
          You know, that is sort of what the ML is reflecting , isn't it? I actually think it is suggesting a very tough match. The V. Williams line yesterday was right here and also refused to move from this range, and she snuck by at the very end.

          Good advice. THX.
            Comment
            • Dmoneytx
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-09-12
              • 6450
              #4
              I have Raonic in all of my parlays today, all be it only two. And he was at -900 on Bovada. I thought it was worth the 11% on both of my plays. BOL to us
                Comment
                • Hangoverblack
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-27-12
                  • 1900
                  #5
                  I had already placed my bet prior to receiving ParlayininHtown's advice. So I am glad that Raonic is entering ground and pound stage.

                  I thought Raonic has the type of mentality that he will not quit. I believe he has 2012 slated for his coming out party, and has shown a committment to clay early this year to prepare for today. Hidalgo is a challenger level bread winner. Raonic's FO future suggested this match was a foregone conclusion.

                  All these things considered, I put a bet to win 8.5 units at -675. So yes, I am very glad.
                    Comment
                    • Pride
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-12-10
                      • 4238
                      #6
                      Originally posted by Hangoverblack
                      I had already placed my bet prior to receiving ParlayininHtown's advice. So I am glad that Raonic is entering ground and pound stage.

                      I thought Raonic has the type of mentality that he will not quit. I believe he has 2012 slated for his coming out party, and has shown a committment to clay early this year to prepare for today. Hidalgo is a challenger level bread winner. Raonic's FO future suggested this match was a foregone conclusion.

                      All these things considered, I put a bet to win 8.5 units at -675. So yes, I am very glad.

                        Comment
                        • Hangoverblack
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-27-12
                          • 1900
                          #7
                          Internet / -1 Ticket #: 25000810
                          May 28 11:30 AM                          		 MU STRAIGHT BET
                          [4120] M RAONIC -675
                          (R HIDALGO vrs M RAONIC)                          		 5400 / 800 800 WIN
                          WIN                          		 05/28/2012 09:48 AM
                          Internet / -1 Ticket #: 25000813
                          May 28 11:30 AM                          		 MU STRAIGHT BET
                          [4120] M RAONIC -675
                          (R HIDALGO vrs M RAONIC)                          		 402 / 59 59 WIN
                          WIN                          		 05/28/2012 09:51 AM
                            Comment
                            • ParlayininHTown
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 06-27-10
                              • 7561
                              #8
                              Glad you had already placed that bet instead listening to my dumb ***, because it was an easy winner
                                Comment
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