Diamond`s Semifinal GIFT

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-05-08, 01:52 AM

Why are you surprised? The five time defending champion of any tournament is not going to be an underdog - unless he's playing #1 (Even then might not be). The price is based mostly I think on where the public is going to jump in on the betting. Set it too high or too low & you get less action. Where it is now, sets it just about right. Fed backers don't think it's too rich, Djokovic backers think they're getting a bargain. Be interesting to see how much stock people put in the Roddick match. Djokovic played his best match of the tournament, but that wasn't saying much - while Roddick played his worst.

I disagree some with your analysis. Djokovic had been fairly ordinary in his matches before the one with Roddick. He did look alot more alert on returns vs. Roddick, but I think that is because he knew he had to or he was going to get blown apart. Roddick also helped tremendously by serving under 50% on 1st serve in those 1st two sets. And Fed has been going to net ALOT in the last two rounds, so I don't know that the baseline is going to be as large a factor as you think. Fed seems to have figured out that whatever his deal is this year - he had to change something. Going to net is part of that.

Just my two cents. Should be a fun one to watch. GL with your play!

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-05-08, 09:59 AM

Not sure where you the saw that opening price either, but at Bookmaker it's now EVEN for Djokovic & -130 for Federer.

**bettilimbroke999** · 09-05-08, 10:25 AM

This match is far from a gift, very little value either way, if you can get Djoker at good plus odds like +140 (+120 MINIMUM to bet on Djoker imo) you should take it but even money is just pure gambling. Odds on this match are right around 50/50 with slight favor leaning towards Federer only b/c he's been so dominant at the US Open (even though this year he is garbage) and the fact that Djoker is playing mediocre lately after losing the finals in Cincinnatti vs Murray (though he was likely tired from defeating Federer in the SF of that tourney) and struggling with the overhyped amateur Roddick in his last match after predictably annihilating him the first 2 sets (though most of that was the terrible crowd behavior or else he would've likely sent Roddy packin in straight sets)

**Gorzy** · 09-05-08, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Not sure where you the saw that opening price either, but at Bookmaker it's now EVEN for Djokovic & -130 for Federer.

CRIS = DSI = BOOKMAKER

If Djokovic plays to his potential he takes this in 3/4 sets

I believe that the matchup is in Djokovic's favour, he has been the better player overall this year and even here at US Open.

Federer to win would have to up his game immensely or Djoker to bottle it

I think Djoko would have been no bigger than evens odds pre-match

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**HeeeHAWWWW** · 09-06-08, 07:53 AM

This is tough tough tough. Federer has been shaky this tournament, as most of the year, and his inability to lift his game at the Olympics was a really bad sign for him (he doesn't care about Masters these days, but the Olympics and the US Open were supposed to be his comeback).

On the other hand, Djoko has been a little off colour recently too, and his fitness hasn't looked too good. If it goes to 5 sets, he'll lose. I hope he wins, because I have a big bet on him to win the tournament at +400 from a while back, but this is dodgy.