Raonic/Hewitt - Check in and discuss!

beefcake · 01-19-12, 06:56 PM

Raonic has proven to me with 2 ATP 250 titles already that he does not fold under pressure, if not for an injury late last year he would be even higher ranked. No friggin way hewitt can handle his serve.With his serve he can play shitty and still pull out games due to that.

benrama · 01-19-12, 07:14 PM

Hewitt is a scrappy player with no weapons - Raonic should be able to hold serve comfortably and pick his spots to break. Home court advantage can't make up for a lack of talent - however Raonic at those odds has no value, except perhaps in a parlay.

dj_destroyer · 01-19-12, 08:07 PM

No value? You don't think Raonic wins 3 out of 4 times?

benrama · 01-19-12, 08:34 PM

Well the odds are now -305 on Raonic so it's more like 4 times out of 5, but even at the starting odds I'd say yes he wins 3 out of 4 on a neutral court but borderline on Hewitt's home court.

Raonic lost to guy called Amir Weintraub on hard court in the last 6 months - have you heard of him? I haven't either. Now I think Raonic brings his A game here, but no way I could take him at -300 style odds. However - I am still looking at using him in a parlay tomorrow.

tevari · 01-19-12, 09:23 PM

People will make it more complicated than it should be. Raonic in straight sets.

benrama · 01-19-12, 09:40 PM

If that's your play, you'll probably get Raonic in 3 sets at +150 or better

Beason5209 · 01-19-12, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by benrama

Well the odds are now -305 on Raonic so it's more like 4 times out of 5, but even at the starting odds I'd say yes he wins 3 out of 4 on a neutral court but borderline on Hewitt's home court.

Raonic lost to guy called Amir Weintraub on hard court in the last 6 months - have you heard of him? I haven't either. Now I think Raonic brings his A game here, but no way I could take him at -300 style odds. However - I am still looking at using him in a parlay tomorrow.

I wouldn't worry too much about that match unless you think that the wild Israeli crowd got to him in Davis Cup action. That was Raonic's first match from his hip injury and he was suffering from Food poisoning that made him miss his next match, and was replaced by Peter Polansky.

If you are worried about Raonic, it should be because he looked really bad last match and his serve was completely off. He had a lot of trouble moving forward and Hewitt should take advantage of that with a ton of crafty stuff.

dj_destroyer · 01-19-12, 11:26 PM

Well if you believe Pinny to be sharp then [-280] was a steal...

Raonic did look pretty shaky last match but I think he rolls... Can't take him at -305 though when -280 was available to me. The reason I asked is I have some futures on him:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

benrama · 01-20-12, 12:54 AM

Don't get me wrong I think Raonic rolls here, I just personally don't think he has much value here, and I never play -300 type lines straight up - ever. But with his serve he's always a chance, so good luck with those futures

dj_destroyer · 01-20-12, 01:51 AM

I find people are scared of heavy favourites too much...

The real money isn't made in the trenches (-125 to +125). Sure, that's where you grind out your profits day-to-day but you take your big shots on the big dogs and heavy favourites. At least that's where I find my biggest edges.

face · 01-20-12, 02:15 AM

layton playing doubles right now, right this instant against the bryan brothers, wasting his energy

horja1 · 01-20-12, 02:29 AM

Raonic in 3-4 sets

dj_destroyer · 01-21-12, 02:37 PM

baskets · 01-22-12, 09:08 PM

-300 odds on a tennis player not even in the top 20?

-300 on any player in ATP is never a guarantee.... and is even scarier when outside of the big 4 studs (well, maybe excluding Murray b/c he has a vagina)

you've got mugs such as Troicki, Wawa-sinka, Mayer, Monfils, Simon, etc... all ranked higher than Raonic...

Well if you believe Pinny to be sharp then [-280] was a steal...

Raonic did look pretty shaky last match but I think he rolls... Can't take him at -305 though when -280 was available to me. The reason I asked is I have some futures on him:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

so wrong on so many levels

baskets · 01-22-12, 09:09 PM

$1 on Raonic to win the AO is like $1 on JayZ to win the Spelling Bee..... not in a million years