Boner_18's Tennis Picks and Tracking Thread - 2012

beefcake · 12-29-11, 05:17 PM

Looking forward to it! Got any qualie picks tonight?

Boner_18 · 12-29-11, 06:24 PM

gonna wait for main draws for now... mostly b/c work wont allow me time to work on handicapping until this weekend. thanks for the interest.

shari91 · 12-30-11, 12:24 AM

Good luck Boner!

Boner_18 · 12-30-11, 07:29 AM

I should add that this is going to be ATP only (maybe some mens challenger). I'm sure y'all make good $$ on WTA I simply don't have time to devote to another class of sport.

Boner_18 · 12-30-11, 02:48 PM

2012 ATP World Tour Is Here! 12/30/11

The time of year draws near where everyone takes stock of the past twelve months, reflects on success and failures, makes promises of betterment in the year to come, and then proceeds to drink themselves silly. Inevitable personal failures aside, this time of year is also an exciting time for sports fans, most prominently GAMBLERS! It is the apex of the NFL post season race, Bowl season for NCAAF, hot stove season for MLB followers and this year the beginning of a shortened NBA season. However, today I am excited about something entirely different and oft overlooked in the sports gambling community, something I get exited about every year, something I enjoy equally as a sports fanatic and gambler. I an speaking of course about the 2012 ATP World Tour.

In a bit of resolving of my own, I have declared to myself that I will handicap daily with write-ups for each play, track my win/loss and profit/loss and that I will attend as many events this year (in addition to the US Open which is local to me), and mostly that I will enjoy the unmatched drama that will inevitably unfold on courts across the globe on virtually a daily basis.

So without further ado I present my 2012 ATP Outlook:

Top 10
Using the ATP rankings to stratify players, despite a firm belief that the rankings are seriously flawed particularly in relation to handicapping needs, I believe that most of the top 10 will repeat their performance of 2011, with a few notable exceptions.

Rafael Nadal will face increasing difficulty stemming primarily from injuries. It is no secret that Nadal's style of play is unsustainable. Between his knees, his shoulder and his injured ego from 2011, I feel that Nadal will suffer further setbacks in 2012. I expect more tactical (opposed to 100% every point style) play, perhaps more selective play in terms of tournaments entered and overall a more vulnerable version of the Spaniard as we have ever seen.
Andy Murray will be a potent performer in select spots. If you have ever followed any of my tennis handicapping you probably noticed that I am not a huge Murray fan. In fact its a toss up between Murray and Blake for who I like least. However, in doing my prep work for this season I noticed that Great Britain's only hope greatly improved on his greatest criticism from seasons past, his serve. While he is flush with weaknesses and I'm not at all prepared to pick him to win his first Slam, I do think he can build on successes from last year more than others in the top 10.

Players To Watch

Obviously it is difficult (foolish?) to pick players you expect to experience pops or drops before the season even starts but foot-in-mouth be damned. Here goes.

I expect Andy Roddick to have yet another disappointing season. This guy can't seem to get ahead. He still sports a dominating service game, improved backhand and probably the best tiebreak game on tour. However his pay is stagnant, he is constantly frustrated with his inability to (re) breakthrough, and it seems to me at this point he is simply mailing it in.
I LOVE Marin Cilic this year. After suffering what can fairly be called a setback from his breakout season, Cilic has quietly settled in right behind the big dogs in the rankings. Last season he consistently beat lesser ranked talent and constantly progressed deep into tournaments. I don't know if he will start to upset faves but I expect to see this young player to constantly compete at a high level.
Two players I am excited to watch develop are Earnst Gulbis and Sam Querry, for different reasons. Querry could be due for a serious rebound season after falling into relative obscurity due to injury, resulting in elbow surgery last summer. Gulbis it seems to me is a decent return game (and maybe 2nd serve improvement) away from winning some serious matches. His young age coupled with the coaching changed he made after Wimbledon (Canas) bode well for the Latvian.

One thing is certain this season and that is we will be surprised, we will be disappointed, we will sit at the edge of our seats. Enjoy and good luck!

Demonata · 12-30-11, 03:45 PM

Good Luck man. Looking forward to your picks.

beefcake · 12-31-11, 08:58 AM

Great stuff..Keep it coming!

Boner_18 · 01-02-12, 01:46 PM

And So It Begins
1/3/12

As many people know, early season tennis betting can be dangerous. Off season work (or lack thereof) can really change a players performance, injuries both known and unknown can recover or worsen, and most obvious some players may not give 100% using lesser tournaments add "warm ups" to the Australian Open. However, there are opportunities... But tread lightly.

Brisbane

Philipp Petzschner (+155) v. Jurgen Melzer (-175)

I was surprised to learn that Jurgen Melzer is 30 years old. He has had a satisfying career amassing nearly 7mm in earnings with 3 total titles. Contrast that with 27 year-old Petzschner who had earned about half as much (2.8mm) with one title win. The two share a very similar W-L record from last year. In style of play Petzschner holds a stronger serve while Melzer sports better return stats. The weight that tips the scale for me is the head to head record, 2-0 in favor of Petzy. Lump in the fact that Melzer should be holding something back in advance of the AO and I think you gotta take the German.

Petzschner (+155) - $280 to win $434

Chennai

Sam Querrey (-266) v. Victor Hanescu (+231)

In my opening article I noted that I interested in watching Querrey potentially rebound from an injurious season in 2011. His first challenge comes against an aging Hanescu, like Querrey ranked 90+ to start 2012. The two share remarkably similar stats from last year, both on serve and return. How do I know Querrey us back on the up and up? Simply put, I don't. I'm completely taking a shot here. Querrey is young, has had sufficient time to rehab his elbow and even at 75% he wins this match. He has 6 total titles at age 24 compared to Hanescu's 1 in the twilight of his career. Take the big American at perhaps what will be the best price he will get all season.. If he is healthy.

Querrey (-266) - $1290 to win $460

Boner_18 · 01-03-12, 07:29 AM

Petzy wins. Querrey down a set and a break... Rut ro.

Boner_18 · 01-03-12, 05:48 PM

1-1 $9144

EaglesPhan36 · 01-03-12, 05:51 PM

I like your preview was in the process doing one as well.

Boner_18 · 01-03-12, 05:52 PM

Moving Along Like a Large Pink Bunny Rabbit

1/4/12

Early season action continues across Asia and Australia while US fans burn the midnight oil to watch/get results. Perhaps the most disenfranchised group of tennis enthusiasts are working gamblers who either have to fit handicapping into their busy work day or struggle to crunch the numbers in the evening. I prefer the former, it cuts my boring day and passes the hours with something other than starring at a cubical wall or computer monitor.

Brisbane

Igor Andreev (+185) v. Alexandr Dolgopolov (-225)

What we have here appears to be a story of two ships passing in the night. Dolgo really made strides last season launching from a rank of 48 to the top 20 (15), helped along with the winning of his first title. Andreev on the other hand continued a fall that began in 2009, ending outside the top 100. Tack on the fact that Andreev is truly a clay specialist and this one looks like it could be a rout. Additionally, Dolgo beat up on Andreev the only other time they met, last year here at Brisbane.

Dolgopolov (-225) - $1028 to win 452

tevari · 01-03-12, 05:52 PM

I would never ever bet that much on dolgopolov. GL though.

Boner_18 · 01-03-12, 07:23 PM

Its a hypothetical bankroll based on fixed 5% edge Kelly stakes. Not really betting that much, my real bankroll is so much smaller that I use flat stakes. Thanks for the well wishing though! GL with your plays too, im interested to follow the thread!

Demonata · 01-04-12, 12:31 AM

Dolgopolov always scares me.

Boner_18 · 01-04-12, 11:01 AM

2-1 $9596

May change my staking to 1/2 Kelly, reduced fixed edge (currently 5%), or both. Gotta lower my risk of going bust. Ill announce a concrete adjustment before betting with it so there is no ??'s about it later.

Boner_18 · 01-04-12, 06:41 PM

Chennai

Andreas Beck (-165) v. David Goffin (+145)

This battle of lowly ranked German Andreas Beck (98) and even lower ranked Belgian David Goffin (174) is going to look like a David and Goliath with the 6'3" Beck towering over his 5'4" opponent. However, like many times in life (so my gf says) in tennis size doesn't always matter. Just look at the recent match between Karlovic and Youzhney in Doha. Both of these players have had success on this surface in addition to clay at the Challenger and Futures levels. Also, both players won their opening round matches winning just over 50% of points played (as opposed to blowouts). The difference is that Goffin beat a much more difficult opponent AND it wouldn't have been so close if his opponent hadn't saved 9/13 break points. Given that Goffin has beaten players ranked below him, including several last year here in Chennai, I don't see why he can't do it again today.

Goffin (+145) - $331 to win $480

Boner_18 · 01-04-12, 06:42 PM

Unfortunately this line has come in a lot from when I wrote it up around 9am est. I have not bet it yet, prolly will at +$. Since the whole thread/staking is hypothetical im leaving it as is here.

MatI · 01-05-12, 07:28 AM

Boner, what is the point of using hypothetical amounts?

Boner_18 · 01-05-12, 09:08 AM

Its a good question mati. I'm using a hypothetical bankroll to test my handicapping, and perhaps more importantly my money management skills (Kelly staking). My real bankroll is magnitudes less than 10000 and I use flat betting stakes that are not ideal. In reality I gamble a lot on many different sports and even stupid things just to have action. This hypothetical roll serves to keep my tennis plays separate and disciplined. Perhaps it is a self affirming exercise, but I hope some people gain insight from the thread regardless.

Boner_18 · 01-08-12, 11:35 AM

Switching to 1/2 Kelly at 5% fixed edge to hopefully reduce the risk of bust. Gonna get back on the horse with some picks today.

Boner_18 · 01-08-12, 11:36 AM

3-1 ($10,076)

Boner_18 · 01-08-12, 01:58 PM

Pre-AO Action Down Under (Plus A Kiwi or Two)
1/9/12

Two more AO warm up tournaments enter the main draw today and again we see several players in action for the first time in the 2012 season. Keeping in mind that there are several novel factors at work in the beginning tournaments, we should pick carefully.

Sydney

Florian Mayer (-145) v. Giles Muller (+125)

Middle aged (in tennis years) German Florian Mayer really had a career year last year making a career high ranking within the top 20 (18) and winning his first title at Bucharest, at age 28. Equally aged and from Luxembourg, Giles Muller also made a career high ranking at 42. Some might say that Mayer is a clay player, and to be sure it is his strongest surface. He won his first title on clay and unlike his ATP hard court record he has a winning record on Clay. Muller by contrast, is slightly more adept on hard court. However, if you look at the record of Mayer’s season one will notice that he was on a trajectory of winning despite the surface. Following Mayer’s win on Clay in mid-September, he proceeded to perform soundly on hard court winning 5 matches against players in the top 5 (one retirement) including a straight set rout of World #2 Rafael Nadal. In this match I want to stick with trend.

Florian Mayer (-145) - $340 to win $234

Jarko Nieminen (-476) v. James Duckworth (+380)

Jarko never really seemed to recover over the last few seasons when he was sidelined from an injury and he dropped out of the top 100 to a virtually 10-year low. Today, at age 30 he sits ranked at 77. Duckworth is a 19-year-old Aussie up and comer who has barely even stopped to accumulate experience at the Challenger level. Like many Futures players he won many of his matches (and titles) on clay but he is not alien to winning on hard court. In Brisbane, Duckworth soundly beat Frenchman, Nicolas Mahut in the first round and didn’t completely roll over to his second round opponent, #2 seed Giles Simon. Duckworth has a strong service game and he is at home here in Australia against a traveling opponent. For this price, I’ll take a shot at the young Aussie.

Duckworth (+380) - $59 to win $224

Auckland

Thomaz Bellucci (-278) v. Rui Machado (+235)

Both of these players clearly do their best work on clay. Both of them have numerous Challenger titles on dirt and Bellucci has two at the World Tour level. Indeed, Bellucci is an impressive 61.2% on the surface at the highest level of the pros. However, this tournament is not on clay so you might ask how we can determine how two players will fare on a surface they don’t excel on? Well, the one deciding stat is that Bellucci is 27/46 on hard court for a win percentage of 37% while Machado is a paltry 2/12, a win percentage of 14.3%. Between being the better of the two on this surface AND their preferred surface this should be a quick win for the Brazilian.

Bellucci (-278) - $687 to win $247

Boner_18 · 01-09-12, 07:48 AM

4-2 ($10264)

Mayer match canceled.

Boner_18 · 01-09-12, 03:16 PM

Sydney

Andreas Seppi (-145) v. Julian Benneteau (+125)

Consummate top 50 player Andreas Seppi takes the more varying Frenchman Julian Benneteau. Both players have achieved career high rankings around 20-30, Benneteau more recently in 2010. These two are very evenly matched and both are fairly adept on all surfaces, slightly favoring clay. Whatever slight surface advantage the Frenchman might have, 47.7% win vs. 41.1% is nullified by the Italian's 2-0 record versus Benneteau, both on hard court. Both of these players have already played this season. Seppi is 2-1 losing to Federer and Benneteau is 0-1 in a three set loss to the hot handed Tomic. Looking at the stats from these opening matches it is clear that Benneteau has work to do, 12 double faults (to 14 aces) and only 38% win of second serve points. On the other hand Seppi is firing on all cylinders, 15 aces (to 1 double), 54% of second serve points won on serve and 60% on return (compared to 41% on return for Benneteau). Should be tight and maybe a three set match, but I'm sticking with the Italian.

Seppi (-145) - $374 to win $258

JNic · 01-09-12, 07:05 PM

Nice pick with Bellucci, I was confident in him too. Interesting to see someone back Seppi here, from what I'm seeing everyone seems to be on Benneteau. Seppi is at a good place in his career right now, definitely a solid pick