U.S. Open - Dissect The Men's Draw

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-08, 02:23 PM

2nd Quarter

FERRER, David ESP [4]
VASSALLO ARGUELLO, Martin ARG

QUALIFIER, (Q)
ISNER, John USA

QUALIFIER, (Q)
KARANUSIC, Roko CRO

NISHIKORI, Kei JPN
MONACO, Juan ARG [29]

DEL POTRO, Juan Martin ARG [17]
CANAS, Guillermo ARG

HERNANDEZ, Oscar ESP
BELLUCCI, Thomaz BRA

BERRER, Michael GER
ACASUSO, Jose ARG

GRANOLLERS, Marcel ESP
SIMON, Gilles FRA [16]

WAWRINKA, Stanislas SUI [10]
BOLELLI, Simone ITA

ODESNIK, Wayne USA
FOGNINI, Fabio ITA

LAPENTTI, Nicolas ECU
LU, Yen-Hsun TPE

QUALIFIER, (Q)
YOUZHNY, Mikhail RUS [21]

LOPEZ, Feliciano ESP [27]
MELZER, Jurgen AUT

VANEK, Jiri CZE
QUALIFIER, (Q)

GABASHVILI, Teimuraz RUS
LLODRA, Michael FRA

ROITMAN, Sergio ARG
MURRAY, Andy GBR

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-08, 02:25 PM

3rd Quarter

RODDICK, Andy USA [8]
SANTORO, Fabrice FRA

GULBIS, Ernests LAT
JOHANSSON, Thomas SWE

GARCIA-LOPEZ, Guillermo ESP
HRBATY, Dominik SVK

LEE, Hyung-Taik KOR
SEPPI, Andreas ITA [31]

KIEFER, Nicolas GER [20]
MINAR, Ivo CZE

JENKINS, Scoville USA (W)
NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN

REYNOLDS, Bobby USA
QUALIFIER, (Q)

NAVARRO, Ivan ESP
GONZALEZ, Fernando CHI [11]

ROBREDO, Tommy ESP [15]
ZVEREV, Mischa GER

SPADEA, Vincent USA
SAFIN, Marat RUS

QUALIFIER, (Q)
MOYA, Carlos ESP

VENTURA, Santiago ESP
TSONGA, Jo-Wilfried FRA [19]

CILIC, Marin CRO [30]
BENNETEAU, Julien FRA

GINEPRI, Robby USA
DELIC, Amer USA (W)

QUALIFIER, (Q)
MAHUT, Nicolas FRA

CLEMENT, Arnaud FRA
DJOKOVIC, Novak SRB [3]

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-08, 02:26 PM

4th Quarter

DAVYDENKO, Nikolay RUS
Sela, Dudi ISR

KRAJICEK, Austin USA (W)
CALLERI, Agustin ARG

MONTANES, Albert ESP
HANESCU, Victor ROU

SCHWANK, Eduardo ARG
TURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS [26]

ALMAGRO, Nicolas ESP [18]
DANCEVIC, Frank CAN

WARBURG, Sam USA (W)
TIPSAREVIC, Janko SRB

RECOUDERC, Laurent FRA (W)
QUALIFIER, (Q)

HAAS, Tommy GER
GASQUET, Richard FRA [12]

VERDASCO, Fernando ESP [13]
KUNITSYN, Igor RUS

QUALIFIER, (Q)
QUALIFIER, (Q)

GIL, Frederico POR
CHARDY, Jeremy FRA

GICQUEL, Marc FRA
ANDREEV, Igor RUS [23]

STEPANEK, Radek CZE [28]
STARACE, Potito ITA

LEVINE, Jesse USA (W)
GUCCIONE, Chris AUS

QUALIFIER, (Q)
QUALIFIER, (Q)

GONZALEZ, Maximo ARG
FEDERER, Roger SUI

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-21-08, 03:56 PM

A quick look-see to me & Nadal seems like he has a pretty easy path if he shows up determined. I don't really see anyone up in his part of the bracket that can beat him.

I think the 2nd bracket with Ferrer & Murray [Youzhny??] is where you could see a surprise semifinalist. Also could happen in Djokovic's bracket where he might have the toughest road of the top 4 seeds to get to the semis IMO. Although I think Davydenko got a nice draw in his portion.

Gonna dissect this through the weekend and make my futures picks on Sunday night. Chat it up gurus!

**Tchocky** · 08-21-08, 11:24 PM

Top quarter: Nadal has a pretty tough draw. Berdych, Karlovic, Blake and Nalbandian could all give Rafa trouble.
2nd quarter: Murray and Del Potro would have to be the favorites to come through that side.
3rd quarter: Djokovic is the prohibitive favorite to get to the semis.
Bottom quarter: Roger has a pretty easy draw and should meet Novak in the semis.

**mikey470** · 08-22-08, 03:21 AM

I really think Nadal might fizzle out from here on out. People forget he's really not meant to play on hard with his style. We'll see him win at RG, not before in another major.

BTW, new here.

**jgm1967** · 08-22-08, 09:35 AM

I love del potros chances to make it deep into the tourney.looks like ferrer and wawrinka and murray are the main obstacles in the beginning ..I am big on the usual top 3 of djokovic,nadal,federer, but my big hope is del potro.If he doesnt win that 2nd grouping then I would go with murray

In the womens dementieva is a playing great tennis and could surprise with a victory and I love safina to come off her disappointing loss in the olympics and the double fault debacle and right back into excellent form.Tough to wager against safina right now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-22-08, 06:58 PM

Alright let's get this discussion going. Only two days till we start! Here' who I see for the Final 4 in each part of the draw.

1st Quarter
NADAL: He should have an easy route to the Round of 16. Kohlschreiber or Troicki could win a set at their best, but Rafa lshould be on relative cruise control to the Round of 16.

BERDYCH: He's been a mainstay in the Round of 15 at hard court majors, making it to this round at the Aussie & US Opens for the last two tries. A win over Karlovic on the hard surface in recent weeks should give him confidence in this part of the draw where he'll face big serves in Querrey & Karlovic.

BLAKE : This is the trickiest part of this draw IMO. You've got plenty of talent, but plenty of mental issues with Blake, Fish & Mathieu here. Blake had a great run in Beijing after an up&down summer on hard courts. He also loves the NY stage, going to the Round of 16 or further for 3 of the last 5 US Opens, losing to the #2 & #1 seeds in Round of 32 the other two non-16 finishes. Mathieu is probably the next hottest in this bracket, but he's 3-7 at the Open & just doesn't seem to play well here. Don't be surprised with Blake-Fish Round of 32 match-up. The two have never played & if Blake falters, Fish could surprise.

SODERLING : Nalbandian certainly has the most talent in this part of the draw, but his wild inconsistency makes him a risky proposition. Without much hard court prep this summer, I don't expect a deep run. Monfils has the benefit of beating Nalbandian in Beijing if that match-up occurs, but what Monfils shows up? At full health, he can beat just about anyone - but he's withdrawn from two tourneys out of his last 4. Soderling is my guy here. He's beaten some capable players on hard court in '08: inclduing Gasquet, Baghdatis, Roddick, Stepanek & Wawrinka. Health was an issue early, but he seems healthy now & I think capable of upsetting the apple cart. Getting past Korolev & Monfils won't be easy, but I think he can do it.

2nd Quarter
FERRER: It's been a hugely disappointing summer for David Ferrer, but the US Open brought the best out of him last year in a similar spot where he had little momentum coming in. After a solid clay court year, Ferrer has struggled to find his game on grass & hard courts. Luckily, he doesn't face much here. Isner can dominate with his serve, but I don't see him being able to be a multi-faceted threat. Monaco is the only other seed here and he isn't much to write about on hard courts. If by default, Ferrer should squeak thru.

DEL POTRO: A couple of hot hard courters could do battle in the Round of 32 with Gilles Simon & red hot Juan Martin Del Potro. I don't anticipate either should have much trouble in their 1st two matches - save for Michael Berrer who could cause Simon a trouble for a set. Del Potro taking a rest from New Haven should help him get thru here with his serve & size too much for Simon.

YOUZHNY: I love this part of the draw. Some under-rated players will showcase their talent. Wawrinka fizzled in Beijing, but showed some hard court moxy - taking out a red hot Safin in Toronto & bageling Andy Murray in Toronto before losing in 3. He has made the Round of 32 in 3 straight Opens & should make it there this year. Youzhny is my wildcard at the Open this year. I love the Russian's battling style. He's been good, but not great on hard courts. But has a nice draw. Wawrinka & Youzhny look poised for a showdown in the Round of 32 & I like the Russian to battle thru.

MURRAY: The best thing to happen to Andy Murray might have been the early exit from Beijing. After a rousing win in Toronto over Djokovic, Murray could have been getting a big head. The humbling loss though should refocus him. If he's as good as his summer hard court form, no one beats him before the Round of 16.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-24-08, 01:46 PM

3rd Quarter
RODDICK: While Roddick does have some potential stumbling blocks earlier, he has usually geared it up for the US Open. Only one dud in the last five years. Otherwise, he's been a good bet to get to the quarters. Gulbis make take AR to the brink in Round 2, but if he survives there - I think he gets to the Round of 16. Could be a bit shaky at times though.

F.GONZALEZ: Before Beijing, you might have questioned whether Ferando Gonzalez was ready to roll in the US Open. Not so now after a silver medal finish. Gonzo is playing his best tennis in months & even though he has lacked results at the Open, his draw is fairly easy and should see him through to the Round of 16.

MOYA: This part of the draw is a toss-up. Robredo, Safin, Tsonga & even Moya could make it through to the Round of 16. So we go by subtraction. Robredo could lose in the 1st to Zverev who nearly beat him in Australia. Robredo has also been in poor form. Safin. Since Wimbledon, we've seen the "old" Marat surface. Hot headed & now potential injury concerns after withdrawing in Washington. 86 him. Moya? He's shown a little in his past two tourneys, scalping Davydenko & taking Murray to 3 sets. He made the quarters here last year with similar run-up, so it's not out of the question. And then Tsonga, the big X factor. Talented enough to be seeded in the top 20 even though he hasn't played since MAY! His Aussie Open final appearance shows he can play the hard courts in slams. Is he healthy though? I go with Moya, but think TSONGA is the one to watch here.

DJOKOVIC: I've seen alot of experts/talk that Djoko has an easy draw. I'm not in that frame of mind. I see Clement in Round 1, Ginepri or Cilic potentially in Round 3 as tough tasks. Still, he has looked good in his last two tournies - losing only twice to Nadal and to a red hot Andy Murray. He should make it to the 4th round.

4th Quarter
DAVYDENKO: Davydenko has made the semis two years running here, but I am a little concerned about his form heading into the Open. He hasn't had much hard court time since the Spring & that could factor in. Still the draw favors him where Tursonov & his 1st round opponent Dudi Sela might be the biggest risks.

GASQUET:This part of the draw for me comes down to who wins in Round 1 - Haas or Gasquet? Both are fully capable of a deep run. Both are capable of losing in straight sets. Haas may have some confidence after running to the semis in DC before Dol Potro squashed him. Haas loves this court too. Quarters in 3 of the last 4 years. Gasquet has made it to the 4th round, 2 of the last 3 years & comes in rested having not played since July. Gun to the head, I'll take the guy who might be more fit in Gasquet. Do watch Almagro here - if anyone falters, he could pick up the pieces.

ANDREEV: A real crap part of the draw here to me. I just don't trust Verdasco on hard courts as evidenced with Mardy Fish punishing him in New Haven in 3 sets. He's never done much at the US Open either. Andreev has never progressed far at the Open, but that has alot to do with draw. As he lost to F.Lopez & James Blake in the 2nd rounds of '07 & '06. Getting past Gicquel may be tough. The rest of the draw is full of inexperience, although de Voest from Russia could surprise.

FEDERER: This part of the draw looks like Stepanek & Federer all the way. Stepanek beat Federer on clay earlier this year, but Fed has beaten him on hard courts the two times they played. Stepanek has little form in the lead-up to the Open & generally has been quiet at hard court slams. Expect Federer to struggle perhaps, but get the job done.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-25-08, 09:47 AM

Haha. So I made my futures bets today. Couldn't resist. Youzhny at +8500 and Davydenko at +1000. I went for super value at only half a unit each. Nadal's price kept me from going there and hey they're Russians, they could be in on the fix!