Paris ATP Masters Plays

[benrama]

Been doing OK at tennis and thought that this isn't right - so I should start a thread on SBR to jinx myself and ensure I go on an epic cold streak

Or is this a reverse reverse jinx and I'll run hot as a muther fker?

Either way - tail at your own peril.

All plays for one unit.

Day 2

Monaco @ +102 and Granollers @ +110 - will happily wager that two players, stronger mentally than their opponents, and in form can beat their respective opponents (Young and Chardy). Yes I believe in let-downs but usually when it's from a bigger tournament to a smaller one, not the other way around. As long as one of these two plays wins I'm in the positive.

Isner @ +139 - Wawrinka has been a fade for me for some time. So he did well in his home town - to be expected. Combine with Isner losing his last game this has given good value odds on Isner, the same Isner who made the semi finals of the US Open - I'll bite.

Nishikori -1.5 sets @ +128 - Nishikori is finally starting to live up to his potential, is in career best form, and Stakhovsky has lost in 2 straight sets to Lacko, Berrer, Bachinger and Youzhny in recent indoor hard court matches. I'll take the +odds that Nishikori can repeat that here.

[brandoc]

Isner didn't make no semis at the US...

[showtiime]

Isner didn't make no semis at the US...

[benrama]

Quarter finals - whatever! Got anything useful to add?

[adamo1018]

Quarter finals - whatever! Got anything useful to add?

Love it!

[benrama]

Late addition:

Lopez +130
Llodra hasn't played Lopez recently on hard courts and the one time they played on indoors was 2008 which is too long ago to be relevant but ended up a 35 game three setter. Llodra has been playing like shit in the last few months - yes he won a challenger tournament recently but that was playing weak opposition; Lopez has recently beaten Mayer, Berdych, Tipsarevic on hard courts so I feel the value is all with him. Line is only in Llodra's favour due to home town advantage and performance in Paris last year - I'll take current form over what happened 12 months ago.

[benrama]

3-2 with two dogs of +130 and +139 makes for a good enough day. Back at it in 8 hours time or so for tonights plays, likely to be only one or two, ugly looking card.

[Goat Milk]

careful with end of the year tournys. gl

[benrama]

Two plays for today, posting from iPhone so no time for write-ups:

Tipsarevic -3.5 @ -134
Fish ML @ -121

BOL all

[benrama]

Damn - did I say Tipsy -3.5 games? I meant -10.5 games

Wish they all came that easy.

I'm thinking I'm going to regret this bet, and I hate, hate, hate betting on crazy Russians and Ukranians, but I can't pass up the value on Dolgopolov, he has a habit of saving his best for the big tournaments - when the prize money outweighs the Russian mafia gambling kickbacks.

Dolgopolov @ +143 (was +150 at the time I entered the bet, but went down in between entering my bet and pressing submit)

[benrama]

Final play for the day:


Lopez +1.5 sets @ -121

Lopez is a tough competitor, has won their previous meeting on a hard court in 2010, and Monfils has a tendency to go into the Monfils "wild zone" for at least one passage of every match, so I'll take the bet that Lopez can at least win one set in this match at these odds.

[benrama]

4-0 on the day including a nice +143 win on Dolgo, was going to take Lopez straight up but went the safer route - not to worry a win is a win is a win.

Paris Masters record:

7-2, +6.1 units

Most of the value matches are gone now, so I'm going to have to be selective from here on in. Nothing jumps out yet for the next round of matches, likely to take Tipsy and the Isner/Lopez over, but just leans at the moment.

[benrama]

Tipsy @ -120
Murray -4 @ -137

[benrama]

Tipsy shit the bed after that promising start.

Dolgo +4 @ -103

[benrama]

Ferrer will take this one easily, capped that one poorly - after what looked like a promising day ends up a unit or so down, will call it quits for the day:

Paris Masters record:

8-4, +4.9 units