Freshguy's Tennis plays

[freshguy222]

Ill be posting my tennis plays, ATP and WTA here from now on, all plays 1 unit unless otherwise indicated.

Kvitova -4 -118
I see her winning this one pretty easily in two sets, she will give Stosur a hard time on serve with her hard returns. If she can keep the rallies short and get away with an early lead maybe I see a blowout because she will gain even more confidence then. Also I think that Stosur is overrated from yesterdays win and the court suits Kvitova way better.

Lay the points with Kvitova winning in a 6-4 6-2 win here.

[freshguy222]

its a push but how can kvitova lead in 3rd set with 5-0 and not get the job done? she gave away many 40:0 chances, that one backhand in the first set cost us an easy winner
no play on the second match

[freshguy222]

Del Potro -2 +125
I feel like hes the superior player and Tsonga wont be able to make him run and thats basically the only chance you got against Delpo except for Djoker and Federer and Murray. He also served lights out during the tournament.

[freshguy222]

Kvitova -2 +104
Going against her on indoor hardcourts would just be outright stupid, I think. She could have beaten the crap out of Stosur yesterday, but one backhand cost her to win the first set easily when she was up 40:0. She is the better player and if she can put up a 'complete' game shes better than anyone at the moment. Her hard returns will give Azarenka trouble. Stosur got lots of free points with her kick serve but Azarenkas isnt as good. Kvitova served pretty well yesterday so that she got into good field position, but yesterday she didnt convert those easy ones.

[freshguy222]

Record: +0,04 units
looking at some plays in Basel but you never know how fed, djoko and murray will come out, first two might be a little rusty

[Liam]

Basically the only chance you got against Delpo except for Djoker and Federer and Murray and i am very crazy that Federer will win.

[freshguy222]

you need to mix it up against him get im out of his comfort zone because he commits errors then

[freshguy222]

Stepanek +3 -104
Mayer +111
Haase +3 +100

Mayer is pretty hot and ljubicic can always choke
i always love to fade roddick and i think stepanek will be able to handle the serve and his mixed up game will give roddick trouble
and i feel like wawrinka jsut sucks and haase got a pretty good serve and wawrinka is as inconsistent as it gets

[goblue12]

Like the Mayer play. Took him at +120.

[freshguy222]

+1,15u in total
probably backing mayer again tomorrow, he got the stuff to beat wawrinka

[freshguy222]

until now in each of my plays my player has won the first set???

[freshguy222]

mayer +112 2units
mayer is still not getting any respect here he should be the favourite, hes playing great atm and in my mind is in the top 15 of all players
wawrinkas game should suit him very well and if his serve is a consistent he will get the job done
he really is a player to watch as hes improving his game rapidly right now

[Bbr]

mayer +112 2units mayer is still not getting any respect here he should be the favourite, hes playing great atm and in my mind is in the top 15 of all players wawrinkas game should suit him very well and if his serve is a consistent he will get the job done he really is a player to watch as hes improving his game rapidly right now

!
Mayer is the favourite now. Hope its a winner for ya. Like the play myself but not enough to play it though. GL

[freshguy222]

well i think thats what youre supposed to get when you beat the closer^^
for today i got:
Fish -1,5 -115 2u
Mahut +4 +100 2u
Dodig +4,5 -110

very important match for fish and mayer might choke and you get the way better player here
mahut impressed against ferrero already and will be able to keep it close in front of his home crowd
and dodig might win outright, djokovic retires or dodig keeps it close, this is what the price indicates

[freshguy222]

i will probably play federer against nadal and fade nadal probably a lot during the tournament, the surface doesnt suit him especially against tsonga and fish, im not seeing any real upsets in round 1, myabe berdych against djoker but not sure yet

[freshguy222]

Tsonga +4,5 -118
i like the matchup here for tsonga, if he can take it to one tiebreaker which he could do in paris on a slower surface and pretty fatigued, he should do it today too and then i like my chances. were getting some value because of the 6-1 set in their last encounter. bottom line, if tsongas serve is clutch today he should be able to make it close.

[freshguy222]

biggest play of the year, unfortunately had not time to really cap the games, but i shouldve faded nadal as i wanted to.
Tsonga -132 3u
Tsonga -2 +100 2u
Tsonga -1,5 Sets +171 1u

Total mismatch here. Nadal is hurt (stomach and shoulder) and i wouldnt be too suprised if he retires at some point. Tsonga on the other hand is totally in fire. His serve will give Nadal problems, look for many service winners as well as easy net winners. From the baseline he will overpower Nadal. Nadals serve on the other hand is the worst in about 4 years, have never seen him serve so badly. The surface favors Tsonga of course. Look for Nadal to not get a break and have lots of issues on serve, especially when he gets hard and long returns (see Us Open final against Djokovic). Roll with Tsonga here.