Offering Murray Wins The US Open - (+550)

[Boner_18]

I am looking to get short andy murray and don't want to pay the juice at poster books so let's play no (or negative!) Juice.

YYou are betting Andy Murray to win the US Open (+550)

Ill take up to 125pts must post up points to me here for action. This is based on the 700 points I currently have. I reserve the right to cut off action by posting "closed" in this thread anytime until tourney start on monday.

[wikkidinsane]

you want me to take murray?

[yisman]

yes he wants you to take murray

I'm not biting because price isn't good enough for me.

[Boner_18]

Still offering (+550) for anyone who wants it, up to 125pts. Pinny has moved to (+502) so despite Yisman's standards its a better than market price.

[Glitch]

+550 is what bodog is offering aswell, which is the best price ive seen so far. id be careful with this one boner.

in my opinion, he has a top 5 best chance to win this thing.

[Boner_18]

Bah, looks like there are no takers anyway. Will hold it open until 11am (start of play) tomorrow, 8/29.

[yisman]

10, so you have action.

[Boner_18]

Sounds good Yisser. TYVM. Got you for 10 to win 55.

Closing it now, price has come in a lot so I migh just lay it at Thadds or Mexis.

[yisman]

heh, that was fast

[Boner_18]

Might reopen this as the tournament progrsses. If you like murray to win, stay tuned...

[wikkidinsane]

22 here. Murray or djokovix winning this 1

[Boner_18]

Wikkid, sorry but I closed this as play has already began. In the last post I say that I MIGHT open this back up but will only do so at the end of rounds of play (so I get a more accurate number).

If it does reopen the number will likely be worse than thee 550 I previously offered. Sorry, but im shipping your points back. Stay tuned tho as I will post asap should I open it back up.

[wikkidinsane]

iight lol ship it

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'll go 22 as well

[Boner_18]

Ok boys, opening this again until the start of play (11:00am EDT or 3hrs, 46mins from this post):

You are betting:
Murray to win it all (+500)

That is slightly better than pinny is offering right now. Ship the points by close for action. Up to 200pts total action taken before close.

[Boner_18]

In for 26 wikid

26 to win 130.

[gti175]

im in for 10 for that mental case...

[Boner_18]

Got you 10 to win 50 gti.

[Boner_18]

Closed again. May open it for more after play today/tonight... stay tuned.

[yisman]

So why did the odds get worse?

[Boner_18]

Im just following pinny yisser. I assume the odds come in each round b/c players are eliminated. For example if the next highest seed in murrays half, quarter or even on the other side the odds (for murray bettors) will likely come in a lot, as it will be more likely he wins.

[yisman]

Yes, that would cause the odds to change, but nothing happened. No upsets in Murray's quarter.

[Boner_18]

Well there were upsets in the draw, and odds to win iit all surely don't just take into aaccount the challenges presented in a players quarter. It makes sense I guess, but again im just following the oddsmakers.

[Boner_18]

Its interesting to think about, and I guess the few minor upsets were enough to knock $.50 off for pinny. I wonder what djok/fed/nadal are worth. At least $1-2/ea.

[yisman]

Looking at the entire men's draw, Troicki was the only "contender" to lose, and he was the 15th seed with a poor track record at the US Open.

Basically, nothing has happened to drop Murray's price by that much.

The next biggest upset in terms of odds was Nishikori losing, and he certainly is not a contender.

The top 15 in odds are all still alive, I believe.

[Boner_18]

I don't disagree wiith you about no contenders being upset. But obviously the pinny linesmakers do. They believe that andy murray making it through a draw with falla instead of troicki, cipolla instead of nishikori, etc. Etc. All the way down to bubka instead of haider-maurer iis slightly (500 vvs 550) more likely.

Also, it had already come in from the 550 I was offering by sunday, think I saw it at 502 early monday morn. It was 480 when I offered 500 this morning, so those upsets were worth 22 and not 50. Stll they think they are worth something. Barring a nadal upset tonight I bet it comes in anther 20-30.

Im not saying this is correct or wrong (well I kinda am by betting it) but just that it is.

[yisman]

just weird to me. It doesn't seem to me that Murray is any more likely to win now than before the tournament started.

[Boner_18]

No I totally agree... think it could ever go way up once the tourney started? Maybe a shitty schedule (back to back play b/c oof weather), obviously

[Boner_18]

A potential injury..

[yisman]

yeah, guess these odds do tend to go down, although you wouldn't expect much movement aside from three things happening:

1)The player winning a match (obviously. Murray hasn't played yet, though)
2)Word getting out that the player may be nursing some kind of injury.
3)One or more of the top contenders (in terms of odds) losing. If the top contender happens to be in the player's quarter, then of course that is magnified.

[Boner_18]

It went up to 495! Not opening it up anymore, just gonna bet against him in later rounds...

[SRBI]

I'll take it for 10.

[Boner_18]

Sorry SRBI but im not taking any more action here. Stay tuned for bumps, I may take more as the tournament progresses.

[Boner_18]

Still closed but it moved to 610 at pinny b/c of the 5 setter.

[Boner_18]

Thanks for playing folks.