Tuesday Picks Wimbledon

gregm · 06-28-11, 02:31 AM

Adding Bartoli -115 betonline

cappingsports · 06-28-11, 04:26 AM

I quite like Azarenka -5.5 -126. She has had a tougher draw than her opponent and, in my opinion, is a far better player. She's never made a grand slam semi-final before so I'm sure she'll be fired up and ready to play at her best.

benrama · 06-28-11, 05:04 AM

Greg, had a long reply I had written that become victim to the forum post munching monster.

So I'll repeat again succintly.

Nick Bollettieri - conservative is the word for him, but a good reference and the set predictions hit at a pretty good rate. Unfortunately Pinnacle doesn't offer anything but 3-0 Yes/No options in early rounds.

My fav QF parlay is Federer/Djokovic/Kvitova paying -125.

Agree re: Pironkova, I watched all the Venus match (an hour or so of my life I'll never get back!) and Venus lost it. Pironkova is like Woz, quite defensive and with no major weapons. I think Kvitova should roll here, but can't bring myself to lay the -4.5

For laughs and giggles I'm also going to parlay ALL the big favourites (Murray/Nadal/Federer/Djokovic/Sharpova/Kvitova/Azarenka) paying +230

Mostly worried about Sharapova to be honest given her ability to start piling on the UE's and double faults. When she's on her game she's on and when she's not she can capitulate. Story of the WTA really, which is why I'm staying away from Azarenka (I don't on principle even parlay a WTA player above -500) for any other parlays.

Like Bartoli/Lisicki over as both girls are serving fantastically - could even go over in two sets.

BOL with all your plays today, it's a good looking card.

gregm · 06-28-11, 11:16 AM

Good luck today guys. Ben , you are right, Bollettieri is very conservative.

If you are not watching , turn on and watch Kvitova, she is going to be number 1 one day if she continues to play the way she has been playing this year. Totally dominant today.

angels · 06-28-11, 04:37 PM

Bartoli added.
Bad choice.
GL next

koscheckbaby · 06-28-11, 04:57 PM

Nice and easy day for bettors, unless you took Bartoli. I saw a lot of people on the Bartoli/Lisicki over. Honestly, that shouldn't have covered. Lisicki choked in the second set, but it did.

benrama · 06-28-11, 05:21 PM

Excellent day again, and if Murray and Djokovic take him home today (which they almost certainly will) you've got yourself a pretty damn impressive couple of days of Wimbledon betting.

Should have tailed on Kvitova, just had a feeling this was going to be a classic "win-first-set-lose-second" womens match, which it ended up being but Kvitova still covered easily. Didn't watch the game but sounds like she should have taken it in two. Kvitova is still +300 to win Wimbledon, do you think that is worth a bet Greg?

As for today, I think I'm just riding with my parlay. I might also play Djokovic to win 3-0 at -130, I think Tomic gets his wake up call.

gregm · 06-28-11, 06:19 PM

Thanks Ben and I love Kvitova, I think she is one of the best young players on the tour. Having a server in the wta is great, she has an awesome forehand and just needs to work on foot coordination and a little more finesse on the court and I think she will be in the top 5 soon.

I actually have Kvitova losing in the final to Sharapova in the contest here on sbr and another contest so I definitely like her to advance.I have a pretty nice size futures wager on Sharapova so I am not going to play Kvitova to win wimbledon but I think thats a great number.

I agree with the Tomic wager, I would love to see another young player really rise to prominence on the tour, so many young players like Oudin, Raonic ,Dimitrov and Harrison have potential but are not playing to it yet. I just see too many faults in his game.That serve is great but its one dimensional and Djokovic is a fantastic returner. Djokovic looked unstoppable against Llodra.

I am definitely taking the prop of Djokovic 3-0 and the -7 games, I dont see Djokovic dropping a set here if he plays like he did last match. I am definitely looking at the over in the Federer / Tsonga match, the -6.5 murray and the under 35.5 in the Murray match.

Good luck guys , you too Koscheck, you are a very good poster when you are calm. Good luck tomorrow guys

koscheckbaby · 06-28-11, 07:03 PM

You like Kvitova over Azarenka? I hope so. I really want a Sharapova-Kvitova final. Something tells me Azarenka will spoil the party. She looked really good tonight and I worry about Petra being an unforced error machine like she was in the 2nd set against Pironskova. She gave that set away and missed some really easy balls. That could kill her against Azarenka.

gregm · 06-28-11, 08:53 PM

Koscheck, I wouldnt be shocked to see Azarenka beat Kvitova but my money will be on the over in that game for sure. Kvitova basically gave away that second set but I never thought she was in any serious trouble. I love these lefties on grass and I love watching her play.

I would have to go back to when I was young and Navratilova won wimbledon in the 1990s to remember really any great left handed women players on the tour. Maybe Monica Seles. There have been plenty lefties on the mens tour like Connors , McEnroe all the away back to Laver.

I love watching lefties play like Nadal and she is fun to watch especially when her serve is on.

She is tall and her movement is not always the greatest, but if she has that seve working, can keep down the unforced errors like another leftie like Safarova does all the time, and brings out that big forehand, she matches up well with Azarenka.

She is really the only "up and coming" star I really like from the young crowd who is consistent this year. Harrison, Young, Raonic, Dimitrov, Oudin, have all had their moments over the past year ,year and a half, but she really deserves to be in the top 10. Its been a fantastic year and she seems to be only getting better.

benrama · 06-28-11, 10:41 PM

Agreed, Tomic is very one-dimensional. He was lucky to escape against Andreev, who kind of imploded, especially in the 5th set, and couldn't capitalise on his break chances. Soderling was sick so I don't really read much into that game. Malisse was sick also - in the head - so I don't count that either

Tomic's game is predicated on his serve, and getting 1st serve % in at around 70%; however what I expect to see happen in this game is for Djokovic to get more 1st serves back than Tomic has been used to, and he will have to start to push for the lines, and you'll see that % drop. If he drops below 60% the match will become a whitewash.

I agree with what Bollettieri said too, with Tomic being Djokovic's hitting partner, there will be no surprises here.

My concern with taking -7 is that I think Tomic can force at least one tiebreaker so you are relying on a 6-2 type set against a big server. If only you could "buy games" in tennis betting and parlay, I'd love to have a Djokovic -4/5 type line to utilise.

For Tsonga I would give him a much better chance if this was a 3 set match, but in 5 sets I think he just won't be able to hold it together mentally, avoid his serve dropping off and UE's.

He loves playing on grass and has some weapons, so I think I will place a small amount on Federer to win 3-1 or 3-2 - effectively an "over 3" sets bet parlayed with Fed on the ML. If you place 1/2 unit on 3-1 @ +250 and 1/4 unit on 3-2 @ +650 you get effective odds of something around +140.

Not liking any bets for the Murray match, but may play -6.5 also.

Gaskan · 06-28-11, 10:58 PM

Can't believe Bartoli lost that match after her comeback.