Some great tennis picks from time to time

[Karim]

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) – Fabio Fognini (ITA)



Fognini win this 8-9 of 10 times

odds with 1,6 are a real present. confidence 4/5

he is a very well sand player and had good matches so far, won twice 3:0

lopez had really big troubles against 2 bad players and had to go over 4 and 5 sets, not a lot of Aces , trouble with serve.. many doublemistakes.. all that stuff
he is also not specalised on sand like fognini is

i dont see lopez winning today. good lucl

[Reds_FAN]

good luck man.

[hutennis]

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) – Fabio Fognini (ITA)



Fognini win this 8-9 of 10 times

odds with 1,6 are a real present. confidence 4/5

he is a very well sand player and had good matches so far, won twice 3:0

lopez had really big troubles against 2 bad players and had to go over 4 and 5 sets, not a lot of Aces , trouble with serve.. many doublemistakes.. all that stuff
he is also not specalised on sand like fognini is

i dont see lopez winning today. good lucl

This type of "incredibly insightful" analysis that are present in practical every thread just keep on baffle every time.

Is not all these are well known facts that did not come unnoticed by oddsmakers?
Are not those some of many reasons why rank 49 is priced as favorite over rank 33?????

[face]

i think it's a good play, thanks karim

[Karim]

This type of "incredibly insightful" analysis that are present in practical every thread just keep on baffle every time.

Is not all these are well known facts that did not come unnoticed by oddsmakers?
Are not those some of many reasons why rank 49 is priced as favorite over rank 33?????

i know like 10 other important facts i could tell about this game why i think fognini will win , but i cant write half hour analysises, since there are so many tennis and soccer picks to go through ! i´m just very sure that he will win , because right now he has soo many advanteges over lopez

[kdoub]

Good pick, thought the over was looking good too but Lopez kind of collapsed. Oh well, still a win.

[Karim]

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) – Fabio Fognini (ITA)



Fognini win this 8-9 of 10 times

odds with 1,6 are a real present. confidence 4/5

he is a very well sand player and had good matches so far, won twice 3:0

lopez had really big troubles against 2 bad players and had to go over 4 and 5 sets, not a lot of Aces , trouble with serve.. many doublemistakes.. all that stuff
he is also not specalised on sand like fognini is

i dont see lopez winning today. good lucl

after a tough 4:6 in first set(falling behind 0:4 within 10 minutes) fognini finished lopez with 6:3 6:3 6:1 of

[hutennis]

i know like 10 other important facts i could tell about this game why i think fognini will win , but i cant write half hour analysises, since there are so many tennis and soccer picks to go through ! i´m just very sure that he will win , because right now he has soo many advanteges over lopez

I don't think you are getting my point.

I does not really mater how many "important facts" you can come up with to support your pick.
The only important thing is how many of those facts ARE NOT PRICED IN already in a current odds.

Because if your reasons are all universally known it would be extremely foolish to think that you are the only person in a sportsbetting world who are smart enough to consider all that important information.

Every time you lthink of some argument ask yourself a question:" Am I the only one who knows about it?". And if answer is "No", you can safely dismiss this argument as useless.

I mean, bunch of arguments like that can make an entertaining discussion on public forum but as far as getting any kind of edge we all need to overcome commission we pay... No chance.

Why do you think handicappers spend all that time and effort on building mathematical models that suppose to help them to discover some hidden value in a sea of stats and information if all they would need is a few trivial facts about recent performance?

Why do you think 99% of bettors are losing money if all they need to make some is a few trivial facts about recent performance?

I mean, congrats on your win (witch was the most likely outcome, btw), but so what...?

[Karim]

I don't think you are getting my point.

I does not really mater how many "important facts" you can come up with to support your pick.
The only important thing is how many of those facts ARE NOT PRICED IN already in a current odds.

Because if your reasons are all universally known it would be extremely foolish to think that you are the only person in a sportsbetting world who are smart enough to consider all that important information.

Every time you lthink of some argument ask yourself a question:" Am I the only one who knows about it?". And if answer is "No", you can safely dismiss this argument as useless.

I mean, bunch of arguments like that can make an entertaining discussion on public forum but as far as getting any kind of edge we all need to overcome commission we pay... No chance.

Why do you think handicappers spend all that time and effort on building mathematical models that suppose to help them to discover some hidden value in a see of stats and information if all they would need is a few trivial facts about recent performance?

Why do you think 99% of bettors are losing money if all they need to make some is a few trivial facts about recent performance?

I mean, congrats on your win (witch was the most likely outcome, btw), but so what...?

all that ur talking about is a good idea of course when ur betting very big, but since i´m only 19 and no highroller yet, i can´t put like 10 hours into one pick , when i´m only betting 50$ on it.. it will take me 50 years to get wherever i want. I have to pick as much as i can , hold my 106% Return of investment (over 5k picks in a year now) and if i see solid value on someone and i´m confident that a pick will go through more often than the odds are showing , i play it. Today i was like at least 80% sure Fognini will only lose this , if he has his worst day of the yearor gets injured or Lopez has his best day in this year. So the odds had very good Value.

[BathingApe]

Why you gotta hate for? The guy made a pick, it won. Just STFU, why even be on this site anyway to get analysis if the oddsmakers already know EVERYTHING?

[JNic]

hutennis you don't gotta start bashing the guy, he made a winning pick and he took some time to back it up... just relax

[hutennis]

I did not bash this guy and I hate nobody. I just pointed out that approach is kinda dubious. That's all.
But I guess you guys are right. STFU would be the best thing to do. On so many levels.

Peace out.

P.S. I would appreciated it a lot though if someone could point out one thing out of any "analysis" that is/was unknown to oddsmakers and thus is not/was not discounted