Bens Tennis Plays 2011

[benrama]

Starting a thread for my own tracking purposes, let's see how it goes. All plays are for 1 UNIT unless stated otherwise. 1 UNIT for me is 1% of my bankroll

6th May
Llodra +7.5 @ -116
Soderling @ +183
Bellucci @ +198
Ferrer @ +302
Goerges @ +108
Mattek-sands @ +165

And one BIG future play.

15 UNITS @ -325, Djokovic not to win the Madrid Open

On the last play, despite the high juice, I see Ferrer as an excellent chance to beat Djokovic, he is 3-0 against Djokovic on clay, admittedly these were in 2004, 2007, 2009 - and with Djokovic now in the form of his life. If Djokovic beats Ferrer, we Rafa as a back up in the final and Djokovic has never beaten Nadal on clay, and I don't see it happening in Nadals home country.

The main risk I see to this is Nadal getting injured before the final, but I'm happy to take that risk.

These type of plays only come along so often and I only recommend playing them if you have the bankroll to absorb them.

[Pew Pew]

What book do you use so I can get that future bet too?

[benrama]

Pinnacle has the future. I expect Djokovic to be +180 or more if he does make the final versus Nadal so there's options there to reduce the exposure.

Personally though I think that Djokovic has a 1/3 chance at best of beating Nadal here, so having Ferrer with an extra chance to win is just a bonus. Even Bellucci or Berdych could be a headache if they bring their A game.

The weekend is forecast to be 23-25 degrees and sunny so this helps Djokovics opponents also.

[benrama]

Bellucci @ +198
Goerges @ +108

Hope the day/night finishes like it's started.

[benrama]

Llodra +7.5 @ -116
Soderling @ +183
Bellucci @ +198
Ferrer @ +302
Goerges @ +108
Mattek-sands @ +165

2-4 for -1.1 UNITS. Llodra just couldn't get that one extra game, Ferrer ran out of steam in the 3rd and BMS challenged - though truth be told didn't look like that good a chance of winning. At least takings dogs on the tennis tour you never get buried.

[benrama]

Getting these plays in now as I'm out most of the weekend:

Goerges +3.5 @ +100
Na Li @ +125

Goerges still not getting the respect from the books - she's playing fantastically on clay and I like her chances to take a set here and keep the whole match close.

Li vs Kvitova is a coin flip in my opinion, and I'll happily take the positive odds on the girl I think will fight harder to win - Li never quits.

[benrama]

Current Record: 2-7, -18.1 UNITS

This thread has started on fire! Always sucks to lose a 15 UNIT play, but I guess I just underestimated the extent to which Djokovic has become the dominant world player right now.

Not to worry, I'm up for the year on tennis, and am well aware of the usual curse when you start posting plays in your own thread. I had a profitable Aussie Open and always look forward to the slams as you can play parlays and rely on players giving 100%. Unless they are French or in the WTA that is

Onto today.

Monday 23 May

3 UNITS Bellucci/Raonic/Hanescu @ $1.92
3 UNITS Petzschner/Hanescu/Peng @ $1.95
3 UNITS Petzschner/Raonic/Berlocq @ $1.89
1 UNIT Llodra/Gasquet/Peng @ $2.2
1 UNIT Karlovic +7 @ $1.95


Despite what I said above I am still betting on French players and WTA players - I must be a sucker for punishment.

BOL everyone with their plays.

[benrama]

Monday 23 May: 2-3, -3.2 UNITS
Current Record: 4-10, -21.4 UNITS

Well, that's frustrating. Raonic loses to kill two of my big parlays, changing what would have been a nearly 9 UNIT in the positive day to being down 3 UNITS.

Tuesday 24 May
3 UNITS Anderson/Volandri/Melzer @ 2.28
3 UNITS Kohlshcriber/Malisse/Melzer @ 2.17
2 UNITS Giraldo @ 2.1
1 UNIT Monaco @ 2.5