Big bet on Federer?

[degenerate bum]

Hey fellas, I've never bet tennis before and really don't know anything about tennis. I'm seriously considering putting a large wager on Federer, I'm just taking him because of the name. Just wondering if any of you think it isn't worth placing the bet @ -550 against Giles Simon.

Any and all input is appreciated!

[griffdog]

Don't do it.

The head-to-head doesn't always tell the story, considering that it can reflect matches from years and years ago, but Simon is 2-1 against Federer.

More telling than the head-to-head is how much of a hard time Federer has when he goes up against Simon. In the two Simon wins in '08, Federer won the first set, and Simon rallied to take the last two to win. This year, they faced off in the second round of the Australian Open...Federer won the first two sets, Simon won the next two to force a decisive fifth set, which Federer won 6-3.

Federer's made pretty easy work of his opponents in Miami, while Simon has had a couple of matches that went the distance, but the fact that he's rallied from a set down in both of those indicates that he's not going to wilt against Fed.

Federer SHOULD win, but 'should' isn't nearly enough to throw down -550 on. If anything, your best bet is to take Federer to win in three sets, or if that's not offered at your book, just take Simon.

[reformed]

simon had big trouble with cuevas and tipso so no way is he beating fed(very unlikely). Pointless to lay juice like this unless you are betting on god. You have to play the handicap in this match if you are going to play, which side is up to you.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hey fellas, I've never bet tennis before and really don't know anything about tennis.

Why would you even think about betting a match then?

[gators0708]

Simon will win imo.. Were all anticipating a Rafa-Roger semi final so one of the 2 will lose lol

[Tsonga]

Not worth putting a huge amount on it. Simon plays Federer quite well and an upset would not be that unexpected. That being said I really want a fed/Rafa semi.

[JNic]

don't do it...

[swiss88]

Exactly, Simon has the game to beat Federer and you can see that in the h2h match-up.. Not worth it to go big on Roger at -550 for such a small return IMO

[reformed]

i think a federer/nadal/djokovic parlay has value at -190 if you want to take that route

[steviec27]

Im taking the match to go to 3 sets at odds of 3.2 in this one.
Thats the value imo.

You can get Federer 2-1 @ 4.4 or Simon 2-1 @ 8.5!! But although Fed's should win I think it goes 3 sets and then its anyones.

[moses millsap]

i think fed will end up spraying his forehand everywhere and lose

[iMpega]

Take O 2.5 Sets. Pays +275