thoughts

**hawley** · 10-06-10, 01:04 AM

looks real good now mate

**Goat Milk** · 10-06-10, 01:52 AM

yeah made a little. this davy/cilic line is phony i think davy might be the play.

**Mikail** · 10-06-10, 01:57 AM

Hey Goat, who is this Michael Berrer guy. Hey beat Berdych 2 nights ago now he is on his way to probably beating Simon in 3 sets. He is ranked 51 in the world I think. He is costing me a pretty penny last few days.

**shari91** · 10-06-10, 01:58 AM

BOL Goatie

**Jrod124** · 10-06-10, 01:59 AM

Berrer has made a huge jump in the rankings in 2010, he has made a ATP Final this year and can be a tricky player when he is playing well. I still like Simon to win this clash however

**Mikail** · 10-06-10, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by Jrod124

Berrer has made a huge jump in the rankings in 2010, he has made a ATP Final this year and can be a tricky player when he is playing well. I still like Simon to win this clash however

I hope so. I Berrer wins this one against Simon. He will have cost me over 5 units in 3 days. Betting against him.

**Goat Milk** · 10-06-10, 02:03 AM

Mikail don't worry Simon will win.

Shari what do you think of that Davy/Cilic line. I think Cilic is the sharp play but he's 3-0 against Davy and 2-0 here and Davy opens as a bigger fav

**shari91** · 10-06-10, 02:10 AM

I think the line is a trap. No other way to explain it unless they did it on Davy's 10% better hardcourt record this year. Cilic has a better ranking, H2H is all Cilic, 90% first serve against Bellucci. No reason for the line to open that way.

BUT... I think if someone was going to take Cilic and they haven't already they've missed the boat and should pass now that the line has moved in his favour. Too close to call this one. They're both mugs.

**Gee** · 10-06-10, 02:55 AM

I got cilic at -110. wish i jumped on when he opened as a dog.

what do we think about gimeno-traver tonight?

I've already taken ivanovic... but every fvcking time i play her she loses :/

Also got djoko as last leg in a multi tonight. i'll be filthy if he loses.

end of baseball season = me paying attention to tennis. usually tennis fvcks me, but its the only thing saving me from NBA pre-season and yesterday MNF debacles atm.

**Mikail** · 10-06-10, 03:18 AM

Parlay- Simon, Peer, Isner and Wozniaki looking golden. Should I hedge Woz? I don't think it's is warranted. Thoughts?

**Gee** · 10-06-10, 03:32 AM

Originally posted by Mikail

Parlay- Simon, Peer, Isner and Wozniaki looking golden. Should I hedge Woz? I don't think it's is warranted. Thoughts?

I got Simon, Peer and Djoko. i'm tempted to hedge... what do you think i should do?

don't think you'll have any problems though mate, but a small hedge to just get your stake back at +744 can't hurt (and can't be for much).

lets face it, the -900 didn't really improve your parlay much and you risk losing it all now...

**Mikail** · 10-06-10, 03:43 AM

Originally posted by Gee

I got Simon, Peer and Djoko. i'm tempted to hedge... what do you think i should do?

don't think you'll have any problems though mate, but a small hedge to just get your stake back at +744 can't hurt (and can't be for much).

lets face it, the -900 didn't really improve your parlay much and you risk losing it all now...

Just hedged with Errani +710 to guarantee a 4 unit profit. Nice to sit back and relax. Watch the matches stress free. I would be suprised if Djoko doesn't win. Mardy Fish is not someone I'd like to be on the other side of. I would probably hedge out just to take some of the pressure of. Good luck!

**Goat Milk** · 10-06-10, 03:43 AM

i would agree with Gee in most situatiosn unless your very confident.

i don't really see anything i like this morning. i like some nice underdogs later at night. probably lu over ferrer.

**Mikail** · 10-06-10, 03:44 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

i would agree with Gee in most situatiosn unless your very confident.

i don't really see anything i like this morning. i like some nice underdogs later at night. probably lu over ferrer.

I was checking over the Ferrer and Lu match. Not sure yet.

**TheSchafe** · 10-06-10, 04:36 AM

I guess Cilic finally decides to lose to Davydenko when I bet on him...fkin figures...

**Goat Milk** · 10-07-10, 12:01 AM

Lu +425 is worth a small play

**Goat Milk** · 10-07-10, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by TheSchafe

I guess Cilic finally decides to lose to Davydenko when I bet on him...fkin figures...

sorry bud tough break. that line was phony though i tried to warn people that were betting cilic that books were just playing tricks.

**Mikail** · 10-07-10, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Lu +425 is worth a small play

Anyone considering Almagro to upset Soderling? It's currently priced @ +244

**Jrod124** · 10-07-10, 12:59 AM

Mikail interesting. Looking for a late night pup. May take a shot.

Good Luck

**Mikail** · 10-07-10, 01:08 AM

Gotta seek out value when betting tennis. Lost too much on chalky favorite parlays lately. Dogs are barking.

**Goat Milk** · 10-07-10, 01:18 AM

come on Lu 1 time.

no opinion on the almagro match. last time he beat sod, sod was extremely upset and I expect him to get revenge. the odds are a bit short for me to take almagro but if he was +290 or above i'd be all over that.

**Mikail** · 10-07-10, 01:20 AM

I originally liked Lu over Ferrer but never pulled the trigger. Went with Troicki instead and he is fading fast.

**MUHerd37** · 10-07-10, 01:43 AM

Lu may very well win this match. It's in the 3rd set right now and Lu has had Ferrer running all over the place. Lu is really out playing Ferrer badly

**Goat Milk** · 10-07-10, 01:45 AM

Heard I wouldn't say that Ferrer is playing good the guy is relentless he never gives up on any point.

**MUHerd37** · 10-07-10, 01:48 AM

Yeah Ferrer is relentless but Lu has had him running all over the place since the 2nd set. Ferrer has had some break chances but jus can't convert. Of course he breaks Lu as I'm typing this. I think Lu has played great

**Goat Milk** · 10-07-10, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Heard I wouldn't say that Ferrer is playing good the guy is relentless he never gives up on any point.

isn't*

**MUHerd37** · 10-07-10, 02:09 AM

Lu collapsed in the 3rd set and Ferrer won it 6-1. Still like the play tho

**Goat Milk** · 10-07-10, 02:24 AM

thats ok at those odds if you can take a player like ferrer to a third set that is a winning bet in the long run.

Ljubacic +115

i'm taking a shot here with the old man. hes not in good form but this is really a BEEFCAKE system where you got to take the ranked player as a dog. Dolgo is a good player though, I think he'll rise the rankings pretty quickly but I'm going to just keep looking out for dogs in this part of the season, after about 2 months, I have no doubts that I will be ahead in units.

**Mikail** · 10-07-10, 02:27 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

thats ok at those odds if you can take a player like ferrer to a third set that is a winning bet in the long run.

Ljubacic +115

i'm taking a shot here with the old man. hes not in good form but this is really a BEEFCAKE system where you got to take the ranked player as a dog. Dolgo is a good player though, I think he'll rise the rankings pretty quickly but I'm going to just keep looking out for dogs in this part of the season, after about 2 months, I have no doubts that I will be ahead in units.

Good luck. Definitely was "on the right side" with Lu. Shame it didn't cash, but as you stated these picks will be winners in the long run. Dogs seem to be paying off right now and still will be the way to go in tennis for now.

**Mikail** · 10-07-10, 02:30 AM

Any opinion on Dementieva/Ivanovic I know we are looking out for dogs but Dementieva looks like the play. The -215 is scaring me away.

**nulldah** · 10-07-10, 02:31 AM

Originally posted by Mikail

Good luck. Definitely was "on the right side" with Lu. Shame it didn't cash, but as you stated these picks will be winners in the long run. Dogs seem to be paying off right now and still will be the way to go in tennis for now.

Watch how favourites rise at QF, well if what I expect happen.

I like Ljubicic as well. not sure why he's underdog. maybe massive breakdown because of injury in 2010. But when he faced Youzhny, based on how scoreboard went (not watching), it seems the old serve monster is back.

**Mikail** · 10-07-10, 03:33 AM

If Almagro can hold now and take set 2 I like my chances.

**Mikail** · 10-07-10, 03:47 AM

Almagro takes set 2 Looking golden now.

**Mikail** · 10-07-10, 04:15 AM

and Soderling breaks Almagro

Still not over but Soderling has been close to perfect on serve.