4-team parlay

GoldRush7 · 08-24-10, 12:19 AM

Just curious what makes you confident in those challenger matches?

AL1322 · 08-24-10, 12:21 AM

on bartoli as well gl with it

lasker · 08-24-10, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by GoldRush7

Just curious what makes you confident in those challenger matches?

Michael Venus is in top form, won 7 out of his last 8 on hard courts against some tough competition and is facing a total newcomer (hence the -1850 odds)

Kravchuk has been playing well as of late. From his last 16 hard court matches, three of his five losses came to Kukushkin and Venus, two of the very best in the challenger tour. He is punishing almost all sub-par competition, and Kedryuk is definitely sub-par. He has lost 13 of his last 14 matches, most of those on hard courts, usually in straight sets.

Galung is incredibly talented. I've watched him play recently and he has been on a tear. He's mentally strong and until his last match was on a seven match winning streak on clay against some strong opponents. Alund is a capable opponent and, like Galung, a clay court specialist, but he has had a mediocre year at best and doesn't seem to be in good form (having lost four of his last six). Galung has been serving well, and when his first serve goes in he is very hard to beat. His serve is really a notch above Alund's.

GoldRush7 · 08-24-10, 01:35 AM

nice, good luck

pat venditto · 08-24-10, 01:38 AM

Good luck man i don't know about these though.

Glitch · 08-24-10, 06:51 PM

that -1850 in there was probably worth an extra 75 cents worth of winnings if it hit

lasker · 08-24-10, 07:27 PM

Would have added another $6, not 75 cents. He won 6-1, 6-1. That result was never in doubt -- one of the top challengers playing a total newcomer with no experience on the tour.

Unfortunately Galung really struggled to get his first serve in, and lost a tight match. But I more than made up for his loss yesterday with today's parlay:

Ticket Accepted Date Risk To Win Amount Paid Status Wager
56580251-1 8/24/10 8:02am $50.00 $100.48 $150.48 Win 4 Team Parlay
Win 8/24/10 11:15am WTA Tennis 214 Marion Bartoli -355* vs Alona Bondarenko
Win 8/24/10 11:30am Challenger Tennis 522 Robin Haase -650* vs Juan-Martin Aranguren
Win 8/24/10 11:00am Qualifying Tennis 701 Ricardo Hocevar -190* vs Greg Ouellette
Win 8/24/10 11:00am Qualifying Tennis 714 Adrian Mannarino -300* vs Dieter Kindlmann

lasker · 08-25-10, 12:54 AM

So far 1-1 with these (6-1 individually). Trying another:

(risking) $17.76 (to win) $30.54 Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/25/10 3:45pm ATP Doubles Tennis 159 D.Nestor/N.Zimonjic -420* vs E.Butorac/T.Parrot
Pending 8/25/10 7:00pm WTA Tennis 201 Caroline Wozniacki -360* vs Dominika Cibulkova
Pending 8/25/10 11:00am Challenger Tennis 407 Filippo Volandri -375* vs Jiri Vanek
Pending 8/25/10 11:30am Challenger Tennis 610 Eric Prodon -280* vs Adrien Bossel

Bossel might be able to fight hard against Prodon, but Prodon has been in great form and has beaten much better competition lately. Plus Bossel has only played on clay once in his last 11 matches while Prodon has been playing on clay exclusively. Also helps that Prodon is on a six-match winning streak, with a very impressive three in a row over Galung, Alund, and Hernandez (all top guys among the challengers). As for the other three picks, they should completely outclass their overmatched opponents and win in straight sets

In a perfect world, that's what will happen.

noober · 08-25-10, 01:04 AM

in the long run u are better off not playing parlays

lasker · 08-25-10, 01:13 AM

True.

Wulfman14 · 08-25-10, 01:42 AM

parlays in tennis are hard to win. i look for matches with high odds and bet on those. single bets . good luck to you though . i like bettanie mattek sands today in WTA. petrova has been streaky and sands has beaten some good opponents of late.

lasker · 08-25-10, 06:58 AM

I'll be staying away from that one, myself. Mattek-Sands has been on fire lately but I can't back her at these odds against Petrova, who is in the top 20 and just recently in the top 10 and whose serve can cause serious problems when it's "on." I agree Mattek-Sands is in better form at the moment and Petrova is streaky... but who knows if Petrova will be on the good side of streaky today? Good luck to you!

Parlays are hard to win in tennis, and I'm indulging just a little bit too much. I guess I'll have to learn the hard way

Here are some plays I like in the Qualifiers:

Pending 8/25/10 2:45pm Qualifying Tennis 804 Bernard Tomic -115* vs Marsel Ilhan (-125)
Pending 8/25/10 11:00am Qualifying Tennis 805 Leonardo Tavares -120* vs Guillermo Alcaide (-120)
Pending 8/25/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 842 Alex Bogomolov Jr -230* vs Niels Desein
Pending 8/25/10 6:15pm Qualifying Tennis 844 Caio Zampieri +280* vs Jesse Levine
Pending 8/25/10 3:45pm Qualifying Tennis 815 Matthew Ebden +180* vs Nicolas Mahut
Pending 8/25/10 11:00am Qualifying Tennis 802 Thiago Alves -260* vs Ruben Bemelmans

lasker · 08-25-10, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by lasker

So far 1-1 with these (6-1 individually). Trying another:

(risking) $17.76 (to win) $30.54 Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/25/10 3:45pm ATP Doubles Tennis 159 D.Nestor/N.Zimonjic -420* vs E.Butorac/T.Parrot

Pending 8/25/10 7:00pm WTA Tennis 201 Caroline Wozniacki -360* vs Dominika Cibulkova

Pending 8/25/10 11:00am Challenger Tennis 407 Filippo Volandri -375* vs Jiri Vanek

Pending 8/25/10 11:30am Challenger Tennis 610 Eric Prodon -280* vs Adrien Bossel

And it hits, with each of them winning in straight sets!

Now 2-1 with these parlays, (10-1 individually)

lasker · 08-25-10, 11:57 PM

Three team parlay @+532:

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 8/26/10 1:00pm WTA Tennis 207 Elena Dementieva +101* vs Marion Bartoli
Pending 8/26/10 1:00am Challenger Tennis 303 Michael Venus -140* vs Miloslav Mecir
Pending 8/26/10 1:45pm Qualifying Tennis 642 Bernard Tomic -120* vs Marsel Ilhan

Adding a two-team parlay @+133:

Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm WTA Tennis 213 Maria Kirilenko -132* vs Dinara Safina
Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 626 Uladzimir Ignatik -310* vs Jordan Cox

Adding a three-team parlay @+350

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 626 Uladzimir Ignatik -310* vs Jordan Cox
Pending 8/26/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 650 Ryan Harrison -115* vs Rui Machado
Pending 8/26/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 654 Adrian Mannarino -122* vs Bobby Reynolds

And a final four-teamer @+318

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 617 Simon Stadler -122* vs Benoit Paire
Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 624 Izak Van Der Merwe -300* vs Martin Klizan
Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 626 Uladzimir Ignatik -310* vs Jordan Cox
Pending 8/26/10 1:45pm Qualifying Tennis 639 Alex Bogdanovic -330* vs Blake Strode

lasker · 08-26-10, 11:48 AM

underdog picks:

Qualifying Tennis 633 Steve Johnson +157* vs Noam Okun
Qualifying Tennis 635 Juan Pablo Brzezicki +200* vs Ivan Dodi

and another 4-team parlay @+468

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/26/10 1:30pm WTA Tennis 219 Nadia Petrova -125* vs Samantha Stosur
Pending 8/26/10 1:45pm Qualifying Tennis 639 Alex Bogdanovic -330* vs Blake Strode
Pending 8/26/10 1:45pm Qualifying Tennis 644 Alex Bogomolov Jr -230* vs Niels Desein
Pending 8/26/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 654 Adrian Mannarino -145* vs Bobby Reynolds

lasker · 08-26-10, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Three team parlay @+532:

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 8/26/10 1:00pm WTA Tennis 207 Elena Dementieva +101* vs Marion Bartoli

Pending 8/26/10 1:00am Challenger Tennis 303 Michael Venus -140* vs Miloslav Mecir

Pending 8/26/10 1:45pm Qualifying Tennis 642 Bernard Tomic -120* vs Marsel Ilhan

Adding a two-team parlay @+133:

Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm WTA Tennis 213 Maria Kirilenko -132* vs Dinara Safina

Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 626 Uladzimir Ignatik -310* vs Jordan Cox

Adding a three-team parlay @+350

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 626 Uladzimir Ignatik -310* vs Jordan Cox

Pending 8/26/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 650 Ryan Harrison -115* vs Rui Machado
Pending 8/26/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 654 Adrian Mannarino -122* vs Bobby Reynolds

And a final four-teamer @+318

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 617 Simon Stadler -122* vs Benoit Paire

Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 624 Izak Van Der Merwe -300* vs Martin Klizan

Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 626 Uladzimir Ignatik -310* vs Jordan Cox
Pending 8/26/10 1:45pm Qualifying Tennis 639 Alex Bogdanovic -330* vs Blake Strode

So far 2-1 with today's parlays, hit the +532 and +133, lost the +318. Still waiting on the +350 parlay.

Also just need Mannarino now to complete this last minute six-teamer @+2361:

Attached Files

lasker · 08-26-10, 08:43 PM

Mannarino wins, so the six-teamer @+2361 hits. Harrison also won, so I just hit the three-teamer @+350 as well.

Originally posted by lasker

Adding a three-team parlay @+350

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 8/26/10 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 626 Uladzimir Ignatik -310* vs Jordan Cox
Pending 8/26/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 650 Ryan Harrison -115* vs Rui Machado
Pending 8/26/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 654 Adrian Mannarino -122* vs Bobby Reynolds

The four-team parlay at +468 did not hit because Bogdanovic retired even though he was a set up, and unlike other books 5dimes doesn't cancel bets for retirements after the first set. Otherwise it would have hit as a 3-teamer. I don't know what was wrong with Bogdanovic that forced him to retire a set ahead.

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/26/10 1:30pm WTA Tennis 219 Nadia Petrova -125* vs Samantha Stosur
Pending 8/26/10 1:45pm Qualifying Tennis 639 Alex Bogdanovic -330* vs Blake Strode
Pending 8/26/10 1:45pm Qualifying Tennis 644 Alex Bogomolov Jr -230* vs Niels Desein
Pending 8/26/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 654 Adrian Mannarino -145* vs Bobby Reynolds

lasker · 08-26-10, 08:51 PM

So officially 4-2 with the parlays today, would be 5-1 with a different book. My current parlay record on this thread:

4 team @+145

4 team @+200

4 team @+172

3 team @+532

2 team @+133

3 team @+350

4 team @+318

4 team @+468

(a reduced payout winner for books that cancel bets when a player retires, but lost on 5dimes)

6 team @+2361

Not bad so far, only two misses out of nine parlays

lasker · 08-27-10, 01:42 AM

A tenth parlay, changed my mind a few times on this one, but decided to go for the following three teamer @+458:

8/27/2010 2:15 AM Challenger Tennis 308 Michael Venus* +130 vs Andrej Martin
8/27/2010 12:00 PM WTA Tennis 218 Nadia Petrova* -115 vs Maria Kirilenko
8/27/2010 11:30 AM Challenger Tennis 407 Filippo Volandri* -335 vs Alberto Brizzi

andywend · 08-27-10, 02:42 AM

Great results there lasker but there is no point in including a -1850 wager in a multi-team parlay.

lasker · 08-27-10, 02:53 AM

Perhaps. I simply saw no way for a newcomer to take on one of the top guys on the tour (who happens to be in the best form of his life). It ended 6-1, 6-1 and was a total mismatch (I saw some of it on a live stream). Six extra bucks is still six extra bucks

Anything can have value, even -1850. I really think it's impossible that a player of Michael Venus' caliber would lose to a guy with no tour experience as much as 5% of the time.

lasker · 08-27-10, 03:13 AM

4-team parlay @+369

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/27/10 11:30am Challenger Tennis 407 Filippo Volandri -320* vs Alberto Brizzi
Pending 8/27/10 11:00am Qualifying Tennis 602 Ivan Dodig -310* vs Blake Strode
Pending 8/27/10 11:00am Qualifying Tennis 612 Tatsuma Ito -285* vs Chase Buchanan
Pending 8/27/10 1:30pm Qualifying Tennis 633 Andreas Haider-Maurer +100* vs Jerzy Janowicz

And adding a 3-team parlay @+179, two of the same picks as above:

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 8/27/10 3:30pm ATP Tennis 117 Viktor Troicki -178* vs Denis Istomin
Pending 8/27/10 11:00am Qualifying Tennis 602 Ivan Dodig -310* vs Blake Strode
Pending 8/27/10 11:00am Qualifying Tennis 612 Tatsuma Ito -285* vs Chase Buchanan

lasker · 08-27-10, 11:53 AM

Volandri, Volandri... how do you go 0 of 12 on break point opportunities?

Win those damn points already!

...A break! Halleluja!

lasker · 08-27-10, 02:09 PM

Volandri loses. His break point conversion rate killed him. I thought he would breeze through Brizzi, but was very mistaken on this one. So two of today's parlays bust. If Troicki wins, though, I'll win the third parlay.

Adding a fourth for today, a 3-teamer @+391

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 8/27/10 3:30pm ATP Tennis 125 V.Troicki Wins 2-0 +152* vs Not V.Troicki In 2 Sets
Pending 8/27/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 621 Marc Gicquel -230* vs Ruben Bemelmans
Pending 8/27/10 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 713 Sania Mirza -280* vs Catalina Castano