Stacocakes Wimbledon Thread

[Stacocakes]

Seems like the French Open just finished and right away we are right back into things with Wimbledon. Should be a great tournament. From a quick look at the men's draw it seems that if you want to bet Federer or Nadal outright's for this tournament that there is little to no value. As always I will seperate the draw into quarters and analyze each section.

Federer's quarter

Federer pretty much has a cake walk until he reaches the quarterfinals. In the quarters Federer will likely face Berdych or Davydenko. I don't really trust Davy at this point...... haha I should probably say that I never trust Davy at any point really but he is not to far removed from an injury so I am going to guess that Berdych will be the one facing Federer in the quarters. Berdych is good on grass so he should be able to put up a good fight in this match but Federer has owned Berdych in their career head to head at a record of 8-2. Four of those matches are in a slam and Roger won all four. Definately have to side with Federer to win this match and get to the semifinals.


Roddick's quarter

Roddick's path to the semifinals is alot harder the Federer's. Roddick will have to face Cilic in the third round, which is definately no easy task. Since Marin is inconsistant as always I am going to guess that he will be OFF on that day and Roddick should be able to get to the quarterfinals where he will face either Djokovic or Hewitt. Really at this point you can't depend on Djokovic, especially in these best of five set matches because they seem to take a toll on him physically. Hewitt isn't the sign of health either in recent years so I am not to confident about him either. Novak is 3-1 career vs Hewitt and will probably beat Hewitt to make it to the quarterfinals but it definately will be a tight match since Hewitt is coming in with tons of confidence from winning Halle. Monfils is in this quarter of the draw but his fitness makes him always a no play in a major. Djokovic/Roddick in the quarters is really a toss up to me. The reason why I am not to concerned about it though is the fact that the winner of the match will have to play Roger in the semifinals and I think Roger Federer will win that match to make it to the finals. Djokovic is 5-9 career vs Federer and we all know that Roger has dominated Roddick throught their careers so Federer making it to the finals seems like the play. Unfortunately Federer's outrights are at +140 and that is really not a price that I want to bet. Would like to get some more return from a Federer outright, especially since he has looked more beatable lately.


Tsonga/Murray quarter

Yikes. This is a tough quarter. Verdasco and Tsonga should both make it to the fourth round where they will meet eachother. Tsonga hasn't played since his withdrawl in the French Open so his fitness could be the issue here. Verdasco has won both of the meetings between the two so you have to favor Verdasco in the match, especially if Tsonga could be possibly injured. The winner of the match will likely face the winner of Murray and Querrey in the quarterfinals. I always have Querrey to go far in the draws that I make up and it seems that he always lets me down. With that being said, if he faces Murray in the fourth round I am going to have to side with Murray there. In the quarterfinals Murray will face the winner of the Tsonga/Verdasco match. I am banking on the winner of the Verdasco/Tsonga match to be exhausted from a potential four or five set match and I am hoping Murray will use that,plus the crowd to win the match and get to the semifinals here at Wimbledon. His outright price to win it all is +950 and I think that is a great price for him. It is definately worth a shot.

Nadal's quarter

I am going to be really happy in the third round when Nadal will face Gulbis and beat him down. I can't stand Gulbis and I have always thought he was overrated but it seemed like everyone jumped on the Gulbis train during the clay season and hopefully the train has derailed with his pitiful showing in the French Open.....oh ya...he was "injured" I forgot. Whether injured or not, Nadal will beat him here in the third round and will face either Youzhny or Isner in the fourth round. The two have faced once with Youzhny winning the match. I really don't know which way to go in that match but I think Nadal will beat either of them in the fourth round so it won't really matter. This will set up a quarterfinal match with Nadal's buddy Soderling, Ferrer or Baghdatis. Baghdatis and Ferrer are pretty much a toss up. Whoever wins their third round match will probably lose to Soderling so I am expecting Robin to face Rafa in the quarterfinals. Rafa will be forever motivated to beat down Soderling so I think it will happen again here. This sets up a semifinal match between Nadal and Murray. Since Nadal's may have possible injury concerns coming into this tournament I may take a chance here and go with Murray. He definately has better value then Nadal as an outright.


Men's outright for Wimbledon

Andy Murray +950


Here's hoping Murray steps up and finally wins a major with the british crowd behind him. I still think the final will be Nadal and Federer but this will make the tournament a bit more interesting. No real value in +140 or +295 for Federer and Nadal.

Will be back tomorrow with an outright from the women's draw.

I look forward to talking tennis with everyone once again. Hope monday gets here fast.

[Genghiz]

Nice preview

[Stacocakes]

Sounds like Safina and Gulbis have both backed out of Wimbledon

I think Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez to

[Stacocakes]

I have not confirmed the Gulbis withdrawl yet. I am looking around and only one place lists it. Will let you guys know

Not that anyone would pick him to win anyways but jfyi

[noober]

mjms is out was thinking she could go far

[Stacocakes]

Women's draw

I've been looking at the women's draw and once again it seems like Clijsters plays Henin very early. I love watching them play eachother but it's a shame that we can't see this match further into the tournament as a semifinal or even a final.

Women's tennis is always a complete toss up so I am just going to look at some of the better players and determine whether or not it is worth it to take a chance on them to win it all.

Serena Williams +235

As was mentioned in another thread, I really don't like it when a player comes into a tournament without having had some match practice, especially if there is a change in court surface. Serena hasn't played since the French Open and she is once again under the impression that she can just do whatever she wants and just show up on the day of the tournament and win it. Sadly, the state of women's tennis is so poor that her current philosophy works more often then not so I guess there is no real reason for her to put in more effort. Serena's draw isn't all that exciting. She plays Petkovic in the second round and Safarova in the third round but she should be able to beat both player's. In the fourth round things get interesting with Serena facing Sharapova but Serena is 5-2 vs Maria in their careers so Serena will probably be able to beat her. If she advances to the quarterfinals she will face either Kuzentsova or Radwanska. Neither will provide any type of real test for Serena. In the bottom half of her draw she will face either Wozniacki or Stosur in the semifinals. As you can see Serena's path to the finals isn't really that hard and because of that, we are given a poor outright price of +235. Since women's tennis is a coin flip and anyone can win, evidence the French Open, a women's outright should be alot higher then +235, especially for a player that is coming into this tournament with no match action since the French Open. I'll pass on Serena Williams here.

Venus Williams +410

Venus is another player that has a fairly easy ride to the semifinals. She will have to face Peer in the fourth round and then either Bartoli or Schiavone in the quarterfinals. Wow. Not much in her way at all. Of course in the semifinals she will have to face either Henin, Clijsters or Jankovic and that is where it gets interesting. Against Clijsters Venus is 6-6 career BUT Kim has won the last four times the two have played. Venus is 7-2 in her career vs Henin but the last time the two played was way back in 2007 so you can throw those stats out. Still very interesting though. Against Jankovic Venus is 6-6 as well in their career head to head. Since Clijsters is coming back after a long layoff I am thinking that she will not make it to the quarterfinals. I would probably side with Henin reaching the semifinals and eventhough Venus has owned Henin in their career's, I think Henin might be able to beat Venus at that point. I will pass on Venus as an outright and once again, I feel that her price should be higher.

Henin +800

+800....now that is value. Henin has a tough third round match vs Petrova but Henin has absolutely owned Nadia in their careers so you would have to side with Henin there. The fourth round match does scare me with Clijsters but I feel the more match fit Henin should be able to beat her. In the quarterfinals Justine will have to face Jankovic or Wickmayer. As you can see from the draw, Henin has alot of quality opponents that she has to beat just to get to the semifinals. It's hard to bet on her as an outright because there are just to many upsets in women's tennis and Justine would have to be absolutely spot on in every match to make it to the finals. With that being said, I think it's probably best to pass on her as an outright.

Clijsters +1050

A long two week tournament makes me wonder if any of her injury concerns will pop back up as the tournament rolls on. I am going to pass on her at this point.Not worth the risk

Sharapova +1550

Some good value here for Sharapova but she has some tough matches to get to the fourth round where she will meet Serena. I don't see her getting past that point, if she even gets to that point. Pass

Stosur +1800

Stosur is going to be a big play for many since she is coming off such a great performance at the French Open. Because of that result, her outrights odds aren't as good as they should be. Stosur actually has a pretty decent draw here with Dulko, Pennetta/Rezai and then Wozniacki in the quarterfinals. Those players are all beatable for Samantha so a birth in the semifinals could happen for her. In the semifinals she would likely face Serena Williams and she is not going to be to happy with Stosur after that French Open defeat. Look for a big revenge angle with Serena there and a big win to put Serena into the finals. Stosur might be worth a shot here since anything can happen but I don't expect her to win Wimbledon.

I think I am going to pass on a women's outright all together at Wimbledon. Just to unpredictable in women's tennis to pick how a player will do from day to day. If I had to pick the final pairing I think it will be Serena Williams vs Justine Henin. I still have another day to think about all this so I might put a sprinkle on Henin outrights but as of right now I am still on the fence about it.

Hope you guys are having a good weekend

[Goat Milk]

nice write ups.

I don't think Tsonga will get far if he starts playing 5 set matches early. He will get tired by the 3rd round.

[Stacocakes]

Well looking at the opening round matches, Gulbis is in there. I guess he didn't withdraw. Don't know why someone on the Betfair forums said he did. Sorry if that information got to anyone here. I doubt many would bet on him anyways

A match I love for opening day, Isner -140 over Mahut. Mahut has been on fire coming into this tournament winning 7 of his last 8 matches BUT he has won those matches over a pile of stiffs. Dancevic, Koubek, Lu, De Voest, Lapentti, Pauffley....come on now. Isner is the play here.He is the better player and at that price he can't be passed on. I have already locked it in.

I also like Dolgopolov at -150 over Chiudinelli. This match has a player on the rise versus a player on the decline in their respective careers. Really like this play.

If you are looking for a parlay and would like some players to put in one, here are some good ideas:

Davydenko -249 (He is just coming off an injury and played for the first time this past week so he is not in match shape. Probably best to stay away)
Querrey -251
Baghdatis -271

Considering Juan Carlos Ferrero over Malisse. Malisse is on fire coming into this tournament though and JCF has been horrible so maybe its not a good play after all.Probably best to pass on it.

Plays for opening day:

Isner -140
Dolgopolov -150

Best of luck guys.Will be back tomorrow with any additional plays

[diop]

Nice previews Stacocakes.
Hows ur previous wimbeldon record like?

[Nard Dog]

Nice previews.
Is there any definitive word on the Almagro injury?

[Stacocakes]

Ok so some definate withdrawls now are Gulbis,Safina and MJMS. The matches have been shuffled to reflect the withdrawls now.

I can't seem to find anything about Almagro. All I know is that he retired in his last match before Wimbledon. Could it be just giving up and saving himself for Wimbledon or could it be something legitimate? Almagro hasn't played much on grass in his career and the times he has played on it he has been rather poor so a combination of the injury concerns and the poor grass court game make him a +110 dog to Seppi of all people. Seppi isn't very good on grass either so I am guessing this line has to reflect some uneasiness in the gamblers mind about Almagro's injury status. Seppi has won 3 of his last 10 matches coming into this tournament and he is a -119 favorite? There is a big red flashing light saying stay away from this match.

Diop I am sure if you search the SBR forums you will find my previous slam threads.I don't usually keep track of units or anything but I post all of my plays and the threads are full of tennis talk each day.

I"m off to play some tennis of my own right now so I will be back a bit later with some more plays possibly. For now I just have the Murray outright, Isner and Dolgopolov locked in.

[JNic]

yea almagro seriously hurt his groin and was on the ground writhing in pain for like 10 minutes. then a stretcher carried him off, i was almost certain he would miss wimbledon. but now he has been practicing, basically it's just a no play like staco said, why would you bet seppi if you don't know what percent almagro will be playing at

[beefcake]

Hey stacko,how bout our Longshots where we have opps to hedge later on.
Was thinking kleybenaova for the women ,maybe fish for the men..
As usual there will be 2-3 in the QF that will be longshots on the chickies,just have to figure out who,which sometimes might as just throw darts...But you get that one biggie its alot easier to hedge..

[Stacocakes]

Beefcake here are some nice darkhorses for you:

Verdasco +16,900

Not 100% sure about his health. He can pretty much sleep until the fourth round where he MIGHT face Tsonga. Tsonga and Almagro have injury concerns so neither of them may even make it to the fourth round to face Verdasco. You would have to favor him over either of those two players. In the quarterfinals he would likely face Murray or Querrey. Both of those players are inconsistant so you never know what you will get from them. He has a decent chance to get to at least the quarterfinals and maybe even to the finals so for an outright price of +16900, he may be worth a chance. Could easily hedge that line later. Good thing you brought this up Beefcake. I am going to check to see if I can find any possible injury information on Verdasco but this outright is definately worth a shot.

Djokovic +4900

Ok I know that Novak is playing very poor lately but any time you can get +4900 for a top 5 player to win a tournament there is definate value. His conditioning in these five set matches does scare me as the tournament moves on but the price here is very good. He will likely face Hewitt in the fourth round which will be a very tough match but if he is able to get past that match he will face probably Roddick. Roddick hasn't been playing to well since his long layoff during the clay court season so he could definately be beatable in the quarterfinals for Djokovic. If he can get to the semifinals he will likely face Federer which will be very tough. I don't think he will beat Roger but having a +4900 outright player in the semifinals sounds like a great value bet to me.

The women's draw really scares me. Really any of the top 15 players odds wise could win the tournament and I would not be surprised. If you are looking for someone with some good value then Jankovic at +6400 seems like a good play. Kleybanova disapointed me at the French Open when I had her as an outright. I really thought that she could make it fairly far because her draw was opened up nicely but she faltered horribly. Going to pass on her at this time.


Added outrights

Djokovic +4900
Verdasco +16,900

[venice2222]

Do great clay court players find it difficult to play on grass? With exception of Nadal?

[Stacocakes]

Depends on the clay court player Venice. There are some players that are good on clay and absolutely no one else. You know who those players are because they will be playing small tournaments on the clay courts when the big hardcourt tournaments are going on in a month. Of the good clay court players Ferrer, Nadal and Verdasco have all had good success on grass. I am not completely sure about it but I believe that the Wimbledon grass courts used to be very fast so the clay court players would not like the courts because the clay court players are used to the slow courts that they play on. However Wimbledon has changed its surface slightly to slow it down a bit and that helps the clay court players more now which is why you see some of the great clay court players having some success on grass. Whether its due to these players being good on grass or not, I think alot of it has to do with the players also being talented enough to beat a lesser player eventhough they may not like the surface.

[ji03]

Nice analysis Staco. I look forward to following your picks.

[beefcake]

Thought about petkovic,but the value has been taken out after her run in the past tourney,shes down to 90-1..crap odds..

[EaglesPhan36]

Lawdy, lawdy me and you are in agreement.

[Stacocakes]

Murray is due Eagles. No better time to break out then Wimbledon for him.Would be amazing

[birdmanweezy]

good luck

[Stacocakes]

I don't have the balls to bet it but Groenfield +272 over Oudin looks like a great bet.Oudin has been horrible having lost 7 of her last 8 matches and shouldn't really be -300 vs anyone at this point.

Peer -151 over Ivanovic is another match that will probably win

WTA is to unpredictable for me though so I will pass on both these. They both look good though

[raydog]

lets get em cakes...i figured out how to win at soccer (fade fishay)... so this tennis shit cant be too hard...winnnaasssss

[matosh]

lets get em cakes...i figured out how to win at soccer (fade fishay)... so this tennis shit cant be too hard...winnnaasssss

mu tips..
andrev-brands 1 2.20

boziljac-massu 2 3.80

[EaglesPhan36]

Problems with Groenefeld are that she hasn't played since March and sucks on grass [3-10]. I'd never back Oudin at that price, but I'd rather avoid that match.

[beefcake]

How julian Benneteau can be -600 on someone baffles me as as well..

[MUHerd37]

Biggest upset in the history of tennis is about to take place. Falla is up on Federer 2 sets to 1 and up a break in the 4th

[Stacocakes]

Wow I can't believe Federer here.Just waking up right now. Can't belive he was down 2 sets to 0 to Falla. Unbelievable. It is now going to a fifth set and Federer's odds are -640 haha. Surely Roger wins the fifth set here but that is still amazing that its got this far.

Some upsets today incluse Ljubicic and possibly Davydenko. He lost the first two sets and is now currently tied in the fourth set. Another tight match

[Stacocakes]

Falla has been matched as low as -450 on Betfair. Those backers must be about to jump off their balcony's right now

2 bps Federer in the first game of the fifth set. Falla is shot

[Stacocakes]

Break Federer. GSM

[Stacocakes]

Cilic down 2 sets to love. Unbelievable how inconsistant he is

[beefcake]

Glad I got off my cilic train a while ago!

[Stacocakes]

4-0 Federer. Good to see Roger woke up

Davydenko going to a fifth set. Need him to win that match because I picked him in the sbr contest

[MUHerd37]

What an amazing comeback!!! Federer crushed him like 11 days ago I think. 6-3 6-1. Then Federer broke him today as Falla was serving for the match. Incredible.

[Stacocakes]

Federer wins. Eventhough I don't have his outrights for this tournament its good to see him move on for tennis. Pretty sure lots of players on tour would have packed it up in the third set down 2-0.Has nothing left to prove in his career and he gutted this one out