Berdych vs. Soderling line

**TennisBabe** · 06-01-10, 12:50 PM

I can't wait for this match. I'll have $ on Soderling to hedge my Berdych futures bet. I do think Soderling will win though

**Goat Milk** · 06-01-10, 12:52 PM

Soderling -190 at least IMO

**JNic** · 06-01-10, 12:53 PM

o wow will this be a good one, no way this match ends in 3. soderling has been cashing for me all tournament i have to back him again

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-01-10, 12:54 PM

I agree with Goat on this. Soderling will be a sizeable favorite to open and I will ride with Berdych. He has been most impressive to me this week. Soderling pulled out the game he had against Nadal last year, question is will he flop in the next match like last year? Should be nothing but blistering serves in this one.

**noober** · 06-01-10, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Soderling -190 at least IMO

Possible. But there will be so much value on Berdych at that price.

**noober** · 06-01-10, 01:00 PM

Betfair:

Soderling to win FO: 6
Berdych to win FO: 15

**beefcake** · 06-01-10, 01:57 PM

ill be on berdych with you guys..

**swiss88** · 06-01-10, 02:37 PM

i think I'll be on Soderling, I don't see how he loses if he plays like today.
Given how well Berdych he's playing, I also understand the play on Berdych with such odds.
But I'll wait before making my pick

**noober** · 06-01-10, 02:49 PM

Pinnacle:

Thu 6/34357R. Soderling
1.526

02:00 AM4358T. Berdych
2.740

**Jrod124** · 06-01-10, 02:55 PM

Soderling at -190 is value. May wait and play the -1.5 set line at 5 dimes. Don't see Berd man getting more than a set here

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-01-10, 03:10 PM

I would definitely wait and watch the money here if you're for Berdych. Soderling should get heavy action just like he did last year when he beat Nadal. Should be able to snag at least +190 at some point I think and maybe if all things fall perfectly, closer to +200.

**noober** · 06-01-10, 03:13 PM

Yeah, I will wait a little and see what happens. But there is good value on Berdych at the current price.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-01-10, 03:18 PM

I think this line will resemble the Serena-Stosur line in activity. Stosur opened at +188 and it's up to I think +206 or so. I'd expect Berdych to do about the same as Stosur as far as a price increase and that should net you around +190 at worst. I still think Soderling will get a lot of public money though based on who he beat today and that could get close to that +200. Definitely worth a wait because I don't think the price on Berdych right now will go down in a worst case scenario.

**fixxer** · 06-01-10, 03:20 PM

Soderling seems unstoppable now.....but don't forget that Berdych destroyed him not long ago in a surface, which is more suitable for Soderling than the one now...

**JNic** · 06-01-10, 03:41 PM

how are the outdoor hardcourts at miami more suitable to soderling than clay at french open?

**tailmypicks** · 06-01-10, 03:54 PM

he will blow everyone off the court
he wins the whole thing now that he has found his last year form

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-01-10, 04:06 PM

Not saying Soderling won't win, but this year's Soderling and last year's I think are a lot different. Soderling to me was much more impressive in 2009 with who he beat at RG. This year outside of today, he hadn't been tested much and didn't have to do anything but serve well and hit big forehands. If Berdych serves as he has for most of this tournament, Soderling will have to play his absolute A game to win IMO.

**skodaka** · 06-01-10, 04:16 PM

go go go soder

**Fthenorm** · 06-01-10, 04:43 PM

tiebreaks and the over

**unpredictable** · 06-01-10, 04:46 PM

tough game to call. I'll favor Soderling and probably this game will go 4 or 5 sets. They both serve pretty well with high first serve percentage. I am also looking at the total number of games.

**Goat Milk** · 06-01-10, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Soderling -190 at least IMO

Just checked it Soderling is -195 right now at 5 dimes

**TennisBabe** · 06-01-10, 05:23 PM

I spent the last 3 hours looking over a lot of numbers and trends. I came to this conclussion. Either I will not make a play in this match or I will "double down" and play Berdych at the dog price. A lot depends on the line movement.

**JNic** · 06-01-10, 05:35 PM

i'm a big soderling believer, but the line went from -190 to -212 on 5dimes? are you kidding me, this line is awful to take soderling here with the form berdych is in

**Goat Milk** · 06-01-10, 06:35 PM

JNic Berdych is in GREAT form.

Mentally I would give Berdych the edge. I'm thinking over taking the over here whatever the number. I don't think the books will be able to set it high enough and it will go 4-5 sets for sure, especially with both holding serve.

Also, what was with Soderling's knee today? That has to come into question.

**JNic** · 06-01-10, 06:51 PM

i wouldnt worry about the knee thing, he didnt really need to move anyway the way he was playing. mentally the edge has to go to soderling - he has all the confidence in the world and with last years run plus this is only berdych's first semi, berdych has a serious knack for losing matches he should win, definitely a big choker. sure he has fell to federer a lot just like soderling has to prevent him from making deep runs into grandslams but he has never really won a big match.
the fact that this match is so big and you have to agree soderling really isnt that much better than berdych makes anything think why this line is so high. soderling plays a completely out of form clay dud in cilic and the line is -240? and then berdych plays another clay dud in murray and murray is a -200? these odds are just bad, berdych is getting no respect.

**JNic** · 06-01-10, 06:52 PM

the only reason i really want to bet soderling here is because i think he has the shot to win the whole thing the way he played fed. I just don't think berdych would have enough mentally to close out this year's nadal in 5

**Goat Milk** · 06-01-10, 07:17 PM

You're underestimating Berdych mentally. I don't know if I can go against Sod here, but I will play the over whatever it is. Both guys are going to consistently hold serve.

Nadal will destroy Soderling after he struggles to get by Berdych. Nadal hasn't even broken a sweat yet.

**TennisBabe** · 06-01-10, 09:54 PM

I've made up my mind and will NOT play Soderling in this match. Definitely not on the ML. I was thinking earlier this afternoon about a Soderling 3-1 or 3-2 set bet, but I've backed off.

I'm going to wait and see how the public plays this line, hoping they pound Soderling or play Berdych in some sort of set betting (got to see the odds).

I do think Berdych will win this match

**Mexes** · 06-02-10, 12:45 AM

both player play great tennis atm. but soderling will win this for sure