Sportsbooks Have Officially Lost It

**noober** · 05-25-10, 11:45 AM

Halep>>> De Los Rios

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-25-10, 11:48 AM

Maybe you can make a case for that, but four times the price? I don't buy that at all. The books have set a lot of players at supremely ridiculous chalk in some of these early matches.

**noober** · 05-25-10, 12:09 PM

Agree on that.

**nulldah** · 05-25-10, 12:15 PM

does these lines appear after most of today games finished? maybe it's because they consider today amazing stats. only 1 in 18 WTA matches so far is upset. maybe they r too afraid too many public will jump in favs.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-25-10, 12:21 PM

Most of them have been up for at least a day or more.

**bass7** · 05-25-10, 12:24 PM

stosur is up to -2500 on the book im using lol

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-25-10, 12:44 PM

I'm starting to think they're doing this to try and deny people who like high chalk parlays for Grand Slams. You have to string a lot of high chalk together at these insane prices to make the return worth a damn and the more plays you have in a parlay, the more likely it is to get boned.

**noober** · 05-25-10, 01:15 PM

A play either has positive expected value or doesn't. Putting it in a parlay won't change anything, other than amplify the house edge.

**shari91** · 05-25-10, 01:23 PM

The one positive is that this gives us a chance to make a run at a highly undervalued player or one against an insanely overvalued opponent. But I agree, a lot of these matches are just unplayable unless you string together a 10 leg parlay and that's just silly.

**Slider612** · 05-25-10, 01:30 PM

Looked like you get most of the good value plays early in the tourney,is this kind of true,is there a trend early in tournys?

**JNic** · 05-25-10, 02:09 PM

yea so much heavy chalk, who would ever back troicki against ball -550 and wow bellucci is -550 vs andujar, bellucci much better fav

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-25-10, 02:11 PM

The problem this high chalk bullshit is causing too is that the medium to low chalk winds up getting POUNDED because no one wants to lay -1000 or worse, so someone like Bellucci gets bought quick from under -500 to probably -600 by match time. Gotta get those early I think.

**noober** · 05-25-10, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by Slider612

Looked like you get most of the good value plays early in the tourney,is this kind of true,is there a trend early in tournys?

Agree. The more inefficient tha market is, the better.

**Jrod124** · 05-25-10, 04:14 PM

Troicki and Bellucci will only go up. For some reason Murray is over 1000 now. Thats crazy Chela won a clay court event this year. Anyone playing Murray should have his/her head checked

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-25-10, 04:29 PM

Watch the numbers closely though, you might be able to pick out that big upset if one is going to happen. Yesterday, the only heavy chalk - I term this -400 or more - that didn't get slammed was Querrey. Not always an accurate predictor, but interesting to watch.

**necro** · 05-26-10, 12:27 AM

Good luck

**sportscash** · 05-26-10, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by shari91

The one positive is that this gives us a chance to make a run at a highly undervalued player or one against an insanely overvalued opponent. But I agree, a lot of these matches are just unplayable unless you string together a 10 leg parlay and that's just silly.

Yeah it is silly but i have actually done that the last couple of days because im having trouble finding a good price also.Luckily ive won them all so far but i better quit while i'm ahead with the multi's i reckon.