ATP - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) @ Thiemo DeBakker (NED)
Public has been betting on DeBakker all day long and I definitely can say that he's a Friday's public bet. The odds on Tsonga were way worse in the morning (about @ 1.850 on the same spread) and then it might has been closer to truth, though I still see it like a -4 games/+4 games game; now with @ 2.080 as a price I'm taking Frenchman without hesitation. Everyone's fading Tsonga on claycourts because it's his theoretically the worst surface - it's true, although he can play well on it as well and in fact he must have played loads of matches on claycourts during his juniors, as there're a lot of courts with such a surface in France. By the way his bad record is mainly because of his injuries as he's always had some injury issues during claycourts season so far. Right now he's healthy and he's already shown that he's really dangerous. He was rock solid last week, beating Almagro (7-6 7-5) and losing against Ferrero (1-6 6-3 5-7), so as he's continuing playing this way with another win over Almagro (5-7 6-1 6-4) and a straight set one against Hajek (6-3 6-2), I think that he's got all the chances to even win the title here (Ferrer and Soderling are beatable for him in my opinion). I really don't know if DeBakker is already ready for such a big games because it's his first season when he's playing in majors regularly. He's been solid so far, beating both Falla (6-1 6-0) and Gimeno-Traver (7-6 6-3) in straight sets, as well as defeating the same Ferrero (7-6 3-6 7-6), though I think that now we can expect a bit of a letdown spot, playing back to back games against top notch opponents, inside the Top15. Tsonga has already won against Dutch on claycourts (the sole meeting between these two) in Davis Cup last year (7-6 6-2 3-6 7-6), so as it seems that he improved on that surface, I believe that he won't have bigger problems today. Something like 6-3 6-4 will happen and I'm certain that public will be screwed.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-3.5 games) (@ 2.080 Pinnacle)
Public has been betting on DeBakker all day long and I definitely can say that he's a Friday's public bet. The odds on Tsonga were way worse in the morning (about @ 1.850 on the same spread) and then it might has been closer to truth, though I still see it like a -4 games/+4 games game; now with @ 2.080 as a price I'm taking Frenchman without hesitation. Everyone's fading Tsonga on claycourts because it's his theoretically the worst surface - it's true, although he can play well on it as well and in fact he must have played loads of matches on claycourts during his juniors, as there're a lot of courts with such a surface in France. By the way his bad record is mainly because of his injuries as he's always had some injury issues during claycourts season so far. Right now he's healthy and he's already shown that he's really dangerous. He was rock solid last week, beating Almagro (7-6 7-5) and losing against Ferrero (1-6 6-3 5-7), so as he's continuing playing this way with another win over Almagro (5-7 6-1 6-4) and a straight set one against Hajek (6-3 6-2), I think that he's got all the chances to even win the title here (Ferrer and Soderling are beatable for him in my opinion). I really don't know if DeBakker is already ready for such a big games because it's his first season when he's playing in majors regularly. He's been solid so far, beating both Falla (6-1 6-0) and Gimeno-Traver (7-6 6-3) in straight sets, as well as defeating the same Ferrero (7-6 3-6 7-6), though I think that now we can expect a bit of a letdown spot, playing back to back games against top notch opponents, inside the Top15. Tsonga has already won against Dutch on claycourts (the sole meeting between these two) in Davis Cup last year (7-6 6-2 3-6 7-6), so as it seems that he improved on that surface, I believe that he won't have bigger problems today. Something like 6-3 6-4 will happen and I'm certain that public will be screwed.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-3.5 games) (@ 2.080 Pinnacle)
