The final major of the tennis season is here and SBR's Mike Spector breaks down the action with his US Open betting predictions:
Men's Winner: Carlos Alcaraz (+190 FanDuel)
"It wouldn’t be wise to leave both Sinner and Alcaraz out of your US Open futures portfolio given their dominance at Grand Slams for the last two-plus years. After all, they have a 52.38% implied probability to meet in the final based on DraftKings’ -110 odds.
But the difference between Alcaraz’s +190 odds - he is as short as +162 at bet365 - and Sinner’s +110 odds at FanDuel are too big to ignore.
Sinner was forced to withdraw from the mixed doubles tournament after withdrawing from the Cincinnati Open final with an illness. That sparks enough concern with this final Grand Slam being the biggest test of endurance and will in two weeks of New York’s late-summer heat and humidity.
Alcaraz faces a stern test from a former top-20 player in Reilly Opelka in the first round. But that is the sort of match that will heighten the Spaniard’s concentration from the onset, which will only benefit him the rest of the tournament."
Women's Winner: Iga Swiatek (+260 BetMGM)
"Swiatek is the only woman to currently have clinched a Grand Slam title in four straight years, and she's the rightful favorite despite not being the top-ranked player in the world due to what might be her easiest draw in any major this season.
No other player in Swiatek’s quarter has better than +650 odds to reach the semifinals, and some of her biggest challengers (Anna Kalinskaya and Ekaterina Alexandrova) have yet to consistently prove themselves at majors. Meanwhile, Swiatek’s confidence is sky-high after winning the Cincinnati Open - her 11th career WTA 1000 title."
Best Prop Bet: Karen Khachanov to win Quarter 2 (+1100 FanDuel)
"There may not be a better value play to reach the men's semifinals than Karen Khachanov at +1100 at FanDuel - a vast difference from his +800 odds (11.11% implied probability) at BetMGM and Caesars.
Khachanov avoids the top three favorites in Sinner, Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic, as Alexander Zverev is the highest-seeded player in his quarter. Khachanov has already faced Zverev twice this month, winning once. And the biggest obstacle on the path to the quarterfinals is Alex De Minaur, who hasn’t beaten a top-10 player this year."
Best Long Shot Pick: Jasmine Paolini (+5000 FanDuel)
"Jasmine Paolini should have much better than a 1.96% chance to win the US Open - her highest implied probability is 2.94% based on Caesars’ +3300 odds - as she has the most favorable draw of anyone in the 128-player field based on average world rankings of likely opponents.
She is coming off a finals appearance in Cincinnati where she lost to US Open favorite Swiatek. She owns the career head-to-head advantage over Elena Rybakina and would be favored over Emma Raducanu, and those two are her likeliest fourth-round opponents."
Who is your pick to win each side of the draw? Share your predictions below.
Men's Winner: Carlos Alcaraz (+190 FanDuel)
"It wouldn’t be wise to leave both Sinner and Alcaraz out of your US Open futures portfolio given their dominance at Grand Slams for the last two-plus years. After all, they have a 52.38% implied probability to meet in the final based on DraftKings’ -110 odds.
But the difference between Alcaraz’s +190 odds - he is as short as +162 at bet365 - and Sinner’s +110 odds at FanDuel are too big to ignore.
Sinner was forced to withdraw from the mixed doubles tournament after withdrawing from the Cincinnati Open final with an illness. That sparks enough concern with this final Grand Slam being the biggest test of endurance and will in two weeks of New York’s late-summer heat and humidity.
Alcaraz faces a stern test from a former top-20 player in Reilly Opelka in the first round. But that is the sort of match that will heighten the Spaniard’s concentration from the onset, which will only benefit him the rest of the tournament."
Women's Winner: Iga Swiatek (+260 BetMGM)
"Swiatek is the only woman to currently have clinched a Grand Slam title in four straight years, and she's the rightful favorite despite not being the top-ranked player in the world due to what might be her easiest draw in any major this season.
No other player in Swiatek’s quarter has better than +650 odds to reach the semifinals, and some of her biggest challengers (Anna Kalinskaya and Ekaterina Alexandrova) have yet to consistently prove themselves at majors. Meanwhile, Swiatek’s confidence is sky-high after winning the Cincinnati Open - her 11th career WTA 1000 title."
Best Prop Bet: Karen Khachanov to win Quarter 2 (+1100 FanDuel)
"There may not be a better value play to reach the men's semifinals than Karen Khachanov at +1100 at FanDuel - a vast difference from his +800 odds (11.11% implied probability) at BetMGM and Caesars.
Khachanov avoids the top three favorites in Sinner, Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic, as Alexander Zverev is the highest-seeded player in his quarter. Khachanov has already faced Zverev twice this month, winning once. And the biggest obstacle on the path to the quarterfinals is Alex De Minaur, who hasn’t beaten a top-10 player this year."
Best Long Shot Pick: Jasmine Paolini (+5000 FanDuel)
"Jasmine Paolini should have much better than a 1.96% chance to win the US Open - her highest implied probability is 2.94% based on Caesars’ +3300 odds - as she has the most favorable draw of anyone in the 128-player field based on average world rankings of likely opponents.
She is coming off a finals appearance in Cincinnati where she lost to US Open favorite Swiatek. She owns the career head-to-head advantage over Elena Rybakina and would be favored over Emma Raducanu, and those two are her likeliest fourth-round opponents."
Who is your pick to win each side of the draw? Share your predictions below.
