SBR's Gary Pearson shares his Sinner vs Alcaraz prediction for the ATP Cincinnati Final on Monday, August 18th:
Pick to win: Sinner ML (-165 via BetMGM)
"While "dominance" is often thrown around as often as a tennis player tossing the ball during service, Alcaraz and Sinner are the living embodiment of the word.
The pair have won the last seven majors, with Sinner taking four. Alcaraz has advanced to the final in six straight tournaments, with Monday's outing the third in the previous four against his Italian adversary.
Sinner not only carries a 26-match win streak on hard courts into the final, but he's also won 12 straight overall. Despite Alcaraz taking five of the previous six meetings, Sinners' winning streaks provide a razor-thin edge.
The importance of Sinner getting over the hump at Wimbledon cannot be overstated, as it proved he could beat Alcaraz on grass while immediately making up for his implosion during the French Open final.
If I'm nitpicking, which I'm forced to do in a head-to-head matchup with such slender margins, Alcaraz can fleetingly lose concentration. Sinner, at least lately, does not. There are no mental lapses from the lanky Italian, who's as relentless as he is unerring in critical moments.
While I disagree with Sinner getting such short odds at our best sports betting apps, I can't swim upstream considering his recent perfection. I backed Sinner at Wimbledon, and at least currently, he's the ever-so slightly better option."
Best prop bet: Over 22.5 games (-122 via FanDuel)
"Four of their previous six meetings between these two went the distance, two of which were five-set classics at Roland-Garros. I backed over 40.5 games ahead of the Wimbledon final, which agonizingly ended at 40.
If just one of those sets went to a tiebreaker, the bet would have cashed. This is my chance at redemption. Two of the previous three-set matches between Sinner and Alcaraz went to a third and decisive set, both of which exceeded the 23-game threshold.
While a straight-sets win is a possibility, I can't envision one being lopsided. Either a three-set match or a nip-and-tuck two-setter will be enough. Alcaraz will get a boost from added motivation after losing at Wimbledon, while Sinner wants nothing more than to carry a 27-game win streak into the US Open.
As an aside, Sinner is the US Open odds favorite right now.
FanDuel's -122 odds are the longest of our best sportsbooks. DraftKings offers -130 and BetMGM is posting -145. Caesars (+105) and bet365 (-110) are setting the total at 23.5. While there's potential extra value in those bets, I'm opting for a slight buffer."
What is your pick for today's match? Comment below.
Pick to win: Sinner ML (-165 via BetMGM)
"While "dominance" is often thrown around as often as a tennis player tossing the ball during service, Alcaraz and Sinner are the living embodiment of the word.
The pair have won the last seven majors, with Sinner taking four. Alcaraz has advanced to the final in six straight tournaments, with Monday's outing the third in the previous four against his Italian adversary.
Sinner not only carries a 26-match win streak on hard courts into the final, but he's also won 12 straight overall. Despite Alcaraz taking five of the previous six meetings, Sinners' winning streaks provide a razor-thin edge.
The importance of Sinner getting over the hump at Wimbledon cannot be overstated, as it proved he could beat Alcaraz on grass while immediately making up for his implosion during the French Open final.
If I'm nitpicking, which I'm forced to do in a head-to-head matchup with such slender margins, Alcaraz can fleetingly lose concentration. Sinner, at least lately, does not. There are no mental lapses from the lanky Italian, who's as relentless as he is unerring in critical moments.
While I disagree with Sinner getting such short odds at our best sports betting apps, I can't swim upstream considering his recent perfection. I backed Sinner at Wimbledon, and at least currently, he's the ever-so slightly better option."
Best prop bet: Over 22.5 games (-122 via FanDuel)
"Four of their previous six meetings between these two went the distance, two of which were five-set classics at Roland-Garros. I backed over 40.5 games ahead of the Wimbledon final, which agonizingly ended at 40.
If just one of those sets went to a tiebreaker, the bet would have cashed. This is my chance at redemption. Two of the previous three-set matches between Sinner and Alcaraz went to a third and decisive set, both of which exceeded the 23-game threshold.
While a straight-sets win is a possibility, I can't envision one being lopsided. Either a three-set match or a nip-and-tuck two-setter will be enough. Alcaraz will get a boost from added motivation after losing at Wimbledon, while Sinner wants nothing more than to carry a 27-game win streak into the US Open.
As an aside, Sinner is the US Open odds favorite right now.
FanDuel's -122 odds are the longest of our best sportsbooks. DraftKings offers -130 and BetMGM is posting -145. Caesars (+105) and bet365 (-110) are setting the total at 23.5. While there's potential extra value in those bets, I'm opting for a slight buffer."
What is your pick for today's match? Comment below.