Today would've been a nice day to make 1 of those lotto ML dog parlays in Vienna.

**Gaze73** · 10-31-20, 04:17 AM

Sonego closed at +1900 on Pinny.

**Doug tushyterror** · 10-31-20, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Sonego closed at +1900 on Pinny.

Even better..with that line $161 to win $100K

**Gaze73** · 10-31-20, 11:12 AM

You know what's funny? According to efficient market theorists Sonego at +1900 was a bad bet because without juice he would be at like +3000 and according to the efficient market he had a 3-4% chance to win.

**stepaside777** · 10-31-20, 11:14 AM

you know that bookies are bad at setting tennis odds right? if youre long enough in it you would see how often they penetrate up

**Gaze73** · 10-31-20, 11:19 AM

I know that, but the efficient market should correct those odds. There are people in the handicapper think thank who fully believe that there is no such thing as a good value bet on the closing prices.

I thought Sonego should've been the fav today but the bookies and the market disagreed. I thought +160 was a gift but the efficient market says it was a bad bet.

**Doug tushyterror** · 10-31-20, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

I know that, but the efficient market should correct those odds. There are people in the handicapper think thank who fully believe that there is no such thing as a good value bet on the closing prices.

I thought Sonego should've been the fav today but the bookies and the market disagreed. I thought +160 was a gift but the efficient market says it was a bad bet.

Unfortunately I was part of that market because I parlayed Rublev with Evans. Actually I got royally screwed because I had a straight bet on Rublev(750 to win 200) & the parlay was risking 200 so instead of breaking even I wound up losing 200 cuz my book voids retirements.