CrazyLou's warm-up to the US Open thread

[SBR Lou]

I will be keeping track of my tennis picks within this thread.

It is my hope that, headed into the 2009 US Open, I can gain some good form and carry that into the major. Please, do not ask me about futures at this juncture, I'm aware that I am coming off consecutive ATP wins, and at this point there's no sense talking about "can he continue"- I'd rather just make my tennis handicapping selections, and evaluate matches. Thank you.

Pick #1

Ana Ivanovic +104 vs S. Stosur
Listed start time: 4:00PM

[DacBietViet]

I wanna play Ana but stosur been hot. Whats your opinion on Tommy Hass @ -160?

[RogueScholar]

LOL! I knew you were gonna start with Ana. It's a shame Sam's gonna whip her butt all over the court.

[SBR Lou]

I wanna play Ana but stosur been hot. Whats your opinion on Tommy Hass @ -160?

No value. Ivanovic is the play here.

If you want to flip a coin, and have some fun, join the Tennis Contest, not force an ill-advised play on a second-rate version of Marat Safin.

[SBR Lou]

LOL! I knew you were gonna start with Ana. It's a shame Sam's gonna whip her butt all over the court.

Well, it's not about starting with Ivanovic so much as it is, wanting to wait for the right play to begin my return to the tennis community here. This bet is one that I feel enables me to get off to a good start, the last thing anybody wants me to do is have momentum going into the slam. I'll end up posting a record so good all people will be able to blame is variance.

It starts today.

[dwaechte]

I wanna play Ana but stosur been hot. Whats your opinion on Tommy Hass @ -160?

Does this even need to be asked? It has a "-" in front of it, therefore, strong play.

[EaglesPhan36]

Slapstick never dies.

[dwaechte]

Stosur takes 1st set 6-3.

[SBR Lou]

Is the game over? No, thanks.

[yisman]

Yes, it's over.

6-3 6-2

Lou, you're back just in time to get RS out of his slump. He'll be delighted!

[SBR Lou]

ytd 0-1 -1.00

[yisman]

No, that's starting in August, but I'll take it. It's better than before.

[SBR Lou]

No, that's starting in August, but I'll take it. It's better than before.

Uh, hello?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/202527-point-forward-i-will-maintain-public-record.html

[yisman]

I know. But it's not a "ytd" record.

[BeatTheJerk]

CrazyLou is the best tennis fade in the country, but I never seem to have the balls to fade him always thinking this is the time he will go on a run, just from an odds perspective but it never happens ................. Make that 0-5 -9.62 units ytd following Lou this tennis season.

[SBR Lou]

CrazyLou is the best tennis fade in the country, but I never seem to have the balls to fade him always thinking this is the time he will go on a run, just from an odds perspective but it never happens ................. Make that 0-5 -9.62 units ytd following Lou this tennis season.

We'll see what happens as I try to come up with a third ATP championship future W in a row.

I'm expecting to roll this major, no joke.

[yisman]

you say that every time, Lou.

[fiveteamer]

stick to xbox, queerbox.

[RogueScholar]

I've already been telling my friends in chat that the value in the US Open futures lies with the Andys: Andy Murray and Andy Roddick. I'm claiming those, Lou. If you want to sound like a wunderkind, you'll have to pick somebody else. Pick an Andy, and you'll be on my coattails.

[dwaechte]

No worries RS, if Lou doesn't pick Federer I'll shit my pants.

[RogueScholar]

True, just look at his avatar. He can have Fed at +150, I don't consider that any great value for an outright bet.

[SBR Lou]

Radwanska -277
vs S. Cirstea

YTD 0-1 -1.00

[RogueScholar]

Solid bet, Lou. This should get you back to even by all rights. I don't think Sorana will be such a pushover for the Top 15 next year as she's in the middle of a full-fledged evolution on the courts. She has a ton of potential for just being 19 years old, but currently her game just doesn't translate at all to hard courts. Agnieszka on the other hand looks ready to make a push back into the Top 10 that she reached last year.

Personally I'll be on A. Radwanska To Win 2-0 @ 1.83 (Bookmaker)

Would you mind listing the book you got your lines at when you post your plays, Lou? I think I've got all the tennis outs I could possibly handle at this point but maybe some others would benefit from seeing where we're placing our bets.

[EaglesPhan36]

Somehow I knew this was going to be the play today. It actually makes sense, but it's pretty difficult to take any women's player at close to -300. Radwanska did just whip the shit out of Cirstea last week, but the WTA seems to evolve from week to week. Never would have thought Cirstea would have beaten Wozniacki on this surface, hopefully for your sake Lou - it was Woz choking & not Cirstea stepping up. Enjoy your Maalox moment.

[SBR Lou]

Radwanska is at -295 now at Pinnacle, talk crap now?

Didn't think so.

[RogueScholar]

Not to rain on your parade Lou, but lately in these smaller tournaments the line movement has been inversely predictive of the winners of matches. I still think that Radwanska is the play (although only with a set outcome) but I wanted to remind people that allegations of match fixing have plagued the Olympus US Open Series so far, even as recently as yesterday's Gicquel/Troicki match where Troicki steamed from ~2.30 to ~1.70 and then retired after the third game of the first set. Crazy happens and market activity of late.

[SBR Lou]

Not to rain on your parade Lou, but lately in these smaller tournaments the line movement has been inversely predictive of the winners of matches. I still think that Radwanska is the play (although only with a set outcome) but I wanted to remind people that allegations of match fixing have plagued the Olympus US Open Series so far, even as recently as yesterday's Gicquel/Troicki match where Troicki steamed from ~2.30 to ~1.70 and then retired after the third game of the first set. Crazy happens and market activity of late.

Any match with a Russian or two involved is susceptible to being fixed, an unfortunate reality that is plaguing both the ATP and WTA. The way I look at it is, with any luck since no one knows how the fixing takes place perhaps it would balance out over enough plays so that you won fortuitously as much as you lost.

[RogueScholar]

Yeah, I share that outlook on the situation. I doubt I've made as much as I've lost on shady matches to date, but I'm getting more adept at recognizing not only the players who full under that suspicion most often but also the circumstances under which they're most likely to agree to it. That's all I can do for now, and be wary when I see such huge price fluctuations.

[RogueScholar]

Damnit, I'm out of this one already, Cirstea takes the first set tiebreak 7-4. Even if Radwanska wins there was no value on playing her at this price... I've got a half unit on Under 21, I hope Cirstea kills her in the second set.

[SBR Lou]

Radwanska will absolutely steamroll from here, if I'm wrong then people can consider myself a failed tennis handicapping veluator.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lou, what did you do to deserve this fate? You must have run over God's puppy or something. Ag-Rad got to serve for the match after getting a break and got broke back and then got broken again to end it. Typical WTA rollercoaster match.

[RogueScholar]

Now I'm really wondering if this bet would've cashed had Lou not been on the same side as me...

Pavy: Did you fade this one too?

[EaglesPhan36]

Rogue, what's the most chalk you'll lay on a match? Do you have a limit? I think WTA matches especially, you really have to stop at a number. All the "value" talk, etc. - it's pretty difficult to make a case for large favorites.

[SBR Lou]

yisman, please update my record as you had stated you would. I do not desire to do so at the moment and would like to take a breath of fresh air from tennis for a day.

[RogueScholar]

Rogue, what's the most chalk you'll lay on a match? Do you have a limit? I think WTA matches especially, you really have to stop at a number. All the "value" talk, etc. - it's pretty difficult to make a case for large favorites.

I cut off WTA matches at -250, and ATP matches at about -350. That's why I bet Radwanska 2-0 for -120. I try not to have any hard and fast rules except to put in as much research as I can to ensure that my plays at least have a good argument for being +EV. Certainly I've made exceptions to these rules, but not often and not comfortably.