Am I on sticks for thinking Kukushkin has a legitimate shot at smacking Nishikori?

[flakeandbake]

Kukushkin ml 200 - 1,132
Kukushkin +6.5 108-100

I'm not sure why I'm feeling confident in this bet even though Nishi owns him Head2Head. The only thing I don't like is that he's +500 which usually indicates a pipe dream.

27.10.18	VIE	Nishikori K. (Jpn)	Kukushkin M. (Kaz)	2 : 0
23.05.17	GEN	Kukushkin M. (Kaz)	Nishikori K. (Jpn)	0 : 2
13.03.16	IND	Kukushkin M. (Kaz)	Nishikori K. (Jpn)	0 : 2
12.02.16	MEM	Nishikori K. (Jpn)	Kukushkin M. (Kaz)	2 : 0
05.01.16	BRI	Kukushkin M. (Kaz)	Nishikori K. (Jpn)	0 : 2
26.06.12	WIM	Nishikori K. (Jpn)	Kukushkin M. (Kaz)	3 : 0
25.04.12	BAR	Kukushkin M. (Kaz)	Nishikori K. (Jpn)	1 : 2
04.11.11	BAS	Nishikori K. (Jpn)	Kukushkin M. (Kaz)	2 : 1
14.08.11	CIN	Nishikori K. (Jpn)	Kukushkin M. (Kaz)	2 : 0

Betting unusual units since I'm taking a shot here at trying to win 1,000 and only lose 100

[flakeandbake]

Also took:

Zah Strycova ml (WTA) 100-114
Martic ml (WTA) 100-104
Riske +5.5 (WTA) risk $30

Goffin -4.5 spread (ATP) risk $50
Sandgren +5 spread (ATP) risk $50
Bautista-Agut -5.5 (ATP) risk $50
Pella +5 (ATP) risk $50

[Poisec]

I feel Kukushkin + the games is a good pick. Nishikori past his best.

[Poisec]

I also like Goffin - 4.5.

[flakeandbake]

I feel Kukushkin + the games is a good pick. Nishikori past his best.

Probably true. And I could also play over 34 or try to play over 3.5 sets. But trying to at least cover 6.5 and have a chance to upset

[flakeandbake]

All of that to win $34. Still good risk/ reward

[flakeandbake]

More like $22 but w/e