Joao Sousa one of the best underdogs?

[Poisec]

Hi,
Not sure how to calculate this but I'd like to take the odds of each match of Joao Sousa since (let's say) 2013 and see if he is profitable. I noticed he is the underdog a lot of times and wins the match (last example against Steve Johnson).
No one else noticed he is underrated in general? Or is it just me?

[ProDane]

Hello mate.

I did a little experiment in a spreadsheet, but I only used data for Joao Sousa for 2019 and 2018, since I didn't want it to take too much of my time. I used tennisexplorer as my data, as this site contains odds - 1 game didnt have any odds, so I removed that one
But it turned out as this:

Matches played: 76
Matches won: 40
Matches lost: 36

Sum of winning odds: 75.9
Sum of losing odds: 113,82

Average win odds: 1,8975
Average lose odds: 3,16

I you played 1 unit on all 76 matches, you would have:

Won: 35,9
Lost: 36

So you would barely breakeven on him during the past 2 years.

If it has any interest for the forum, I could look into making a intuitive spreadsheet, that automatically does the math

- ProDane

[ProDane]

If you have any other players you think might be good backing as dogs, let me know and I can test some more.

[ProDane]

It caught my interest, so here you have stats for Dzumhur and Basilashvili - last one seems good to trail
Both for 2018 and 2019 matches

I think going back further will not really reflect current chances as good

Dzumhur

Number won:	28
Number lost:	39
Total played:	67
Sum of won:	53,46
Sum of lost:	149,99
Avg won odds:	1,91
Avg lost odds:	3,85
Won money:	25,46
Lost money:	39
Profit:	-13,54

Basilashvili

Number won:	47
Number lost:	36
Total played:	83
Sum of won:	95,97
Sum of lost:	120,60
Avg won odds:	2,04
Avg lost odds:	3,35
Won money:	48,97
Lost money:	36
Profit:	12,97

[DavidGoliath5003]

Sousa as a dog on indoor hardcourts or faster hardcourts or faster Clay courts is your only way to go.

[Poisec]

Thanks ProDane, very informative.