Hear me out, before you start rolling your eyes.
Collins' odds so far...
vs Goerges - over 4:1, wins
vs Garcia - over 3:1, wins
vs Kerber - over 5:1, wins
Usually bookies get the message after a few scary performances (example, Bautista Agut) and don't offer so much free money to be won, but this still wasn't enough to make her a favourite against Pavlyuchenkova; Collins still won, and had a match point at 5-0 in the third, almost administering a bagel, after already bagelling Kerber in an earlier round.
Against Kvitova, she's 4:1 again.
Am I missing something here, other than a good opportunity to make a shitload of money?
Collins gets no respect. Her actual chances of winning are way higher than any of these odds show. Kvitova is an erratic power striker, sure she's playing well right now, and has molested a few also-rans, but hasn't been seriously tested. I have noticed that Kvitova looks really good, until she plays someone that can take some heat, and hammer some winners home themselves. Then all of a sudden, it does not look like she's playing so well anymore, and her unforced errors become the center of attention and the main reason for her 'bad' performance. At the end of the match stats show that she played awful, but in reality it was the same Kvitova, she just got bullied around a bit more than usual and that made all the difference.
Yes, Kvitova did beat Collins a couple of weeks ago at Brisbane in tough three sets, but it was Collins who served for the match first, having won the first set, up 5:4 in the second with a break.
So how on earth is she 4:1 again after all this?
I'm parlaying her with Jose Aldo (also an undeserved underdog against Renato Moicano) for a combined 11:1.
Collins' odds so far...
vs Goerges - over 4:1, wins
vs Garcia - over 3:1, wins
vs Kerber - over 5:1, wins
Usually bookies get the message after a few scary performances (example, Bautista Agut) and don't offer so much free money to be won, but this still wasn't enough to make her a favourite against Pavlyuchenkova; Collins still won, and had a match point at 5-0 in the third, almost administering a bagel, after already bagelling Kerber in an earlier round.
Against Kvitova, she's 4:1 again.
Am I missing something here, other than a good opportunity to make a shitload of money?
Collins gets no respect. Her actual chances of winning are way higher than any of these odds show. Kvitova is an erratic power striker, sure she's playing well right now, and has molested a few also-rans, but hasn't been seriously tested. I have noticed that Kvitova looks really good, until she plays someone that can take some heat, and hammer some winners home themselves. Then all of a sudden, it does not look like she's playing so well anymore, and her unforced errors become the center of attention and the main reason for her 'bad' performance. At the end of the match stats show that she played awful, but in reality it was the same Kvitova, she just got bullied around a bit more than usual and that made all the difference.
Yes, Kvitova did beat Collins a couple of weeks ago at Brisbane in tough three sets, but it was Collins who served for the match first, having won the first set, up 5:4 in the second with a break.
So how on earth is she 4:1 again after all this?
I'm parlaying her with Jose Aldo (also an undeserved underdog against Renato Moicano) for a combined 11:1.
