Bautista Agut vs Karen Khachanov

[DavidGoliath5003]

Bautista Agut +165 vs Karen Khachanov -200 tonight. Who are we on? I know a guy thats putting a pile of money on Khachanov tonight.... i feel if Bautista is fit and its on a slower center court then he could win this? Does anyone know what court this will be on?

[nuxx??]

It's played on 1573 Arena, which is one of the faster side courts. The thing is, most people are piling money because of fatigue factor, so Khachanov probably wins this if this goes the distance.

[DavidGoliath5003]

If its a faster side court then it definately favors Khachanov. Hmm might have to Live wager

[Honeybadger44]

It's played on 1573 Arena, which is one of the faster side courts. The thing is, most people are piling money because of fatigue factor, so Khachanov probably wins this if this goes the distance.

Not sure if it's the fastest side court. I feel like all the small show courts are faster then those main 5 courts. 3 stadiums, 1573 arena and court 3. Among those fives, I'd say Court 3 is the slowest, Rod Laver being second. 1573 and Melbourne arena being fastest and Margaret Court in the middle.

When evaluating speed of playing conditions, weather and time of the day is also crucial. For example, first couple of days, we had high heat and lower humidity, which is good for guys with big game. Today, it will be much cooler (about 10 degrees celsius) and higher humidty.

Roberto did have two tough ones, but market might be overreacting a bit. This will also be the first match out of three, where he has a clear agressor opposite of him and he can just play his counter punching style, where he is most comfortable at. Good luck guys

[DavidGoliath5003]

Not sure if it's the fastest side court. I feel like all the small show courts are faster then those main 5 courts. 3 stadiums, 1573 arena and court 3. Among those fives, I'd say Court 3 is the slowest, Rod Laver being second. 1573 and Melbourne arena being fastest and Margaret Court in the middle.

When evaluating speed of playing conditions, weather and time of the day is also crucial. For example, first couple of days, we had high heat and lower humidity, which is good for guys with big game. Today, it will be much cooler (about 10 degrees celsius) and higher humidty.

Roberto did have two tough ones, but market might be overreacting a bit. This will also be the first match out of three, where he has a clear agressor opposite of him and he can just play his counter punching style, where he is most comfortable at. Good luck guys

Yeah good point. I saw Khachanov struggling a bit vs a returner in nishikoa last round.. consistantly 40-40 on both guys serves. If cool Agut may still be alright

[nuxx??]

Not sure if it's the fastest side court. I feel like all the small show courts are faster then those main 5 courts. 3 stadiums, 1573 arena and court 3. Among those fives, I'd say Court 3 is the slowest, Rod Laver being second. 1573 and Melbourne arena being fastest and Margaret Court in the middle.

When evaluating speed of playing conditions, weather and time of the day is also crucial. For example, first couple of days, we had high heat and lower humidity, which is good for guys with big game. Today, it will be much cooler (about 10 degrees celsius) and higher humidty.

Roberto did have two tough ones, but market might be overreacting a bit. This will also be the first match out of three, where he has a clear agressor opposite of him and he can just play his counter punching style, where he is most comfortable at. Good luck guys

Yeah i kinda agree that market is overreacting a bit, everyone is banking on him being spent.

On the other hand, line on berdych makes no sense. Guy was injured, hasn't played any quallity long matches and Schwartzman is a pest who doesn't give up. In slower conditions today i honestly think he could put Berdychs fitness to test.

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah good point. I saw Khachanov struggling a bit vs a returner in nishikoa last round.. consistantly 40-40 on both guys serves. If cool Agut may still be alright

Cashed with Karen -6 in that one, so I know what you are taking about. And not forget that was on a some faster show court on a much hotter day that should make it easier for Khachanov to punch through those type of opponents. not to meantion Nishioka is nowhere near Bautista's level.

Yeah i kinda agree that market is overreacting a bit, everyone is banking on him being spent.

On the other hand, line on berdych makes no sense. Guy was injured, hasn't played any quallity long matches and Schwartzman is a pest who doesn't give up. In slower conditions today i honestly think he could put Berdychs fitness to test.

Yeah, everybody is banking on that and there was no real signs that he was tired late in those matches. Nor has a history of retirements, cramping late in 5 setters. At least I don't recall it. Seems like one of those guys with incredible stamina that will simply ground you out from the baseline.

Excelent point. I think there is several cases where some guys are priced at absolute premium, base on their recent results. Berdych being prime example. Don't want to take anything away from him. He had couple of solid performances, but -6 seems really high vs a not only pesky, but also qulity guy like Schwartzman.

Similar situation could be Medvedev being -4. Like Medvedev, loves to back him in certain spots, but he is not yet on that level, where he is favored like this vs legit top 25 guy.
I'm bit mad of myself that I haven't been able to caught any of Goffin matches in first two rounds. I would like to know how he looked out there, with those reports about his elbow still healing and so on. Because I suspect that could be bs. And if he's feeling ok, +4 could be a steal in a possible dog fight here.
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[ThinkingTrip]

Odds way too low. Should be 1.90 vs 1.90. It's probably going to be a tight 5 setter.

[leetreaper]

Whoever doesn't bet Agut +3.5, shouldn't be betting tennis at all.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Yeah i actually like Agut ML here

[DavidGoliath5003]

Good discussion guys

[nuxx??]

Excelent point. I think there is several cases where some guys are priced at absolute premium, base on their recent results. Berdych being prime example. Don't want to take anything away from him. He had couple of solid performances, but -6 seems really high vs a not only pesky, but also qulity guy like Schwartzman.

I'm bit mad of myself that I haven't been able to caught any of Goffin matches in first two rounds. I would like to know how he looked out there, with those reports about his elbow still healing and so on. Because I suspect that could be bs. And if he's feeling ok, +4 could be a steal in a possible dog fight here.
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Yeah i have 2u on Scwartzman @4.5, looking good so far. I've watched goffin a bit yesterday vs Copil and he looked solid, dropped first set but came back strong, no signs of injury but you never know.

[Poisec]

I got burned several times in the past for betting on "fatigue", if that can help.

[DavidGoliath5003]

I got burned several times in the past for betting on "fatigue", if that can help.

Same here. I took Agut +3.5

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah i have 2u on Scwartzman @4.5, looking good so far. I've watched goffin a bit yesterday vs Copil and he looked solid, dropped first set but came back strong, no signs of injury but you never know.

thank you for that information

[DavidGoliath5003]

Agut up 2-0 sets now... i would recommend a small hedge on Khachanov as i doubt Agut will be walking if this finds its way to 5

[leetreaper]

Whoever doesn't bet Agut +3.5, shouldn't be betting tennis at all.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Books know it too Khachanov only +420 start of 3rd to win match

[DavidGoliath5003]

All over it bruh... glad we wernt fooled by the foolish line

[JaimeMiro]

Knew this line was fishy as Agut is the better player. Was a pass for me

[DavidGoliath5003]

Knew this line was fishy as Agut is the better player. Was a pass for me

Its not that fishy... RBA is tired if Khachanov wins set 3 he may take this..... just realizing now got my hedge in just incase

[DavidGoliath5003]

Knew this line was fishy as Agut is the better player. Was a pass for me

In current form minus fatigue RBA should be the fave for sure tho

[Poisec]

Great pick so far, but it's a best of 5 sets, with these handicap bets you never know.

[Poisec]

Now it's over, congrats great pick

[DavidGoliath5003]

RBA in god mode... guy barely missed. Now hes got rest wow