2018 Tennis Thread (and some of 2017) Selections

[Jeff_Black]

I have a question for you Jeff. Why $100 on every match? You've watched Bautista Agut and Anderson this week. Two players you know extremely well. You took the time to include a write up. It's a big match with a lot of prize money at stake. And I could go on. Then staking the same on a mug 1st round qualifying match with Monteiro v Seieam Baiaji?It doesn't make any sense to me. At all.

I agree, but also because I am starting out I guess I have to tread with a bit of caution knowing full well it would not be an easy start. If this was like March-April once the season got rolling maybe I would consider differently. But I imagine everyone has gone through this when they've gone through a board and felt really confident in something to add to their plays but it doesn't get up, when other plays do get up. Im no different to that.
Both years I have done the same thing and found some sort of success with it even if I dig myself in a bit of a hole, which I have done, and gotten out of
The problem is most people raise their stakes when they are losing which is like the worst thing one can do haha.

Anyway tournament play is on today so hopefully some good days ahead for me!

YTD: 5 - 11 - 1 (-$570.50)

Moneyline: Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.24 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Total Score: Under 21 Games @ 1.934 on Pinnacle (-$100)

[Jeff_Black]

Friendly advice: Where I think you could improve is stop trying to find solution to every problem. You obviously have a great knowledge of this sport, but it is very important to pick your spots wisely. Cheers!

Yeah most days I tend to do this 2-3 picks a day, I don't know whether it is the excitement of a new tennis season upon us (I saw JC wrote the exact same thing after haha) or whether it's cause I have a bit more time during the holidays season but tennis in January is big especially when you live here and can follow it ALL day which is probably a blessing and a curse (for a bettor) haha.
Normally once the European swing rolls around and the US is when it's a little less hectic but nonetheless...

Thanks and same to you both, we all have a common goal here, and that is

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, R1
Mens Singles: Ryan Harrison vs Leonardo Mayer
Handicap: Ryan Harrison -2 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $99

[JC1186]

but tennis in January is big especially when you live here and can follow it ALL day which is probably a blessing and a curse (for a bettor) haha.

Oh how I can relate haha. It's even worse because of the heat = tennis all day isolated in one room with the air con pumping.

What a healthy way to bring in the new year.

That said, I love it!

[Jeff_Black]

Oh how I can relate haha. It's even worse because of the heat = tennis all day isolated in one room with the air con pumping. What a healthy way to bring in the new year. That said, I love it!

Oh yeah, wouldn't have it any other way

Didn't watch the couple of matches yesterday but Brisbane hardcourts look a bit faster to ya this year somewhat?

Get's worse when it's on multiple channels (Brisbane and Hopman, Sydney and Kooyong) as well at the same time. And then to those of us (like us) who have Tennis TV and can tune in to the other tournaments (when they have them).

Anyway hoping that Mayer continues to outmental midget Harrison here. Seems like teaming up with Michael Russell in the off-season has hardened him up a bit so far.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, R1
Mens Singles: Francis Tiafoe vs Matthew Ebden
Handicap: Matthew Ebden +2.5 @ 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $84

Ugh, the odds had gone down a bit since they opened and since I've been following but I will bite the bullet in this instance and ride his form (finishing winning 19 from 23 matches) going into this year on home soil where he is 10-5. I thought and had him closer to 2.20 so to see him open at 2.50 and still at 2.38s isn't too bad odds.
Followed Tiafoe for some time since he was 14-15 but his less then spectacular win rate on hardcourts and uncertainty here i'll side with the home and more in form guy.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles
Futures/Outrights: To make the Final
Handicap: Fernando Verdasco @ 6.00 on Crownbet
Stake: $50 to profit $300

I look at the Doha draw and I do not see a whole lot of difficult in that bottom half of the draw for Verdasco. A year older (which may not mean much these days for guys in their 30s) but he had a very impressive display here last year losing to Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final in three sets. There isn't a player he can't beat in that side either and at 13.00 isn't a bad shot outright too. But it's a good field, with a lot of players capable of winning the tournament, so instead we'll do this one. Not that it has any bearing on the result possibility, but Verdasco got married in the offseason as well.

[Jeff_Black]

Moneyline: Ryan Harrison -2 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle - (+$99)
Moneyline: Matthew Ebden +2.5 @ 1.84 on Pinnacle - (+$84)

YTD: 7 - 11 - 1 (-$387.50)

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, R1
Mens Singles: Mischa Zverev vs John Patrick Smith
Handicap: John Patrick Smith +3.5 @ 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $84

Kind of been letting this one drag out as the odds for Mischa are dropping and there seems to be some favouritism for him in this match. Playing ability wise he is above John Patrick Smith but he is also vastly inconsistent, and playing against yet another Aussie in Australia makes me feel JPS' odds should be closer to 2.50 and not 3.00. He knocked off the top Qualifier Bublik and grinded out another 3 set win after that.
Not expecting him to win but looking at him to give his opponent a workout and a tougher match then it should be.

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: John Patrick Smith @ -3.5 on Pinnacle (-$100)

YTD: 7 - 12 - 1 (-$487.50)

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, R1
Mens Singles: Jared Donaldson vs Jordan Thompson
Moneyline: Jordan Thompson @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $94.30

[Conqueror]

JB,

Nice to see you back.
BOL this year!

[Jeff_Black]

JB,
Nice to see you back.
BOL this year!

Thanks man, you too as always!

[Jeff_Black]

Moneyline: Jordan Thompson @ 1.943 on Pinnacle (-$100)

YTD: 7 - 13 - 1 (-$487.50)

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, R1
Mens Singles: Denis Shapovalov vs Kyle Edmund
Moneyline: Denis Shapovalov @ 2.139 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $213.90

Bit surprised, think more or less the odds should be flipped. Can't really trust Edmund outside of clay, let alone in another country outside of Europe. I remember watching his first game here in Brisbane last year. He was awful, and was probably fortunate he was playing someone erratic and who hadn't played much on the main tour.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, R1
Mens Singles: Gilles Muller vs Hyeon Chung
Handicap: Gilles Muller +2 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $95.20

Chung might have been the winner of the NextGen Tournament in Milan, but despite what people say about Muller I think he's had an alright year. He has to defend his Sydney title next week, but it wouldn't hurt to pick up some points here either. And despite Chung being pretty much ready for the ATP Tour for this year he did play in a lot of challenger players as opposed to Muller who played pretty much all of his matches on the ATP Tour. On the tour on Hardcourts Chung is less then spectacular with a win rate of less then 50%. Sure he'll get better but we'll take the better value with Muller.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, R1
Mens Singles: Damir Dzuhmir vs Denis Istomin
Handicap: Damir Dzuhmir -2.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $86.20

[Jeff_Black]

Moneyline: Gilles Muller +2 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Moneyline: Denis Shapovalov @ 2.139 on Pinnacle (-$100)

YTD: 7 - 15 - 1 (-$687.50)

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, R1
Borna Coric vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Moneyline: Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $110

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, R1
Feliciano Lopez vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Total Score: Under 22.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $99

[gambleForLife]

I watched the end of Coric/Busta match and man, that was gross. I had Coric -1, but got really lucky, Busta served twice for the match and choked a couple of match points at the breaker.

[rankslash]

Carreno Busta is 1-13 since US Open SF (which was almost five months ago)

[Jeff_Black]

Carreno Busta is 1-13 since US Open SF (which was almost five months ago)

Thats why I was surprised that Verdasco was such good odds to just make the Final. Cause I think Busta was second seed. I actually went to sleep after a bit through the first set, but eh what can you do, keep on plugging away I guess.

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Damir Dzhumir -2.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Moneyline: Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.10 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Total Score: Under 22.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle (-$100)

YTD: 7 - 18 - 1 (-$987.50)

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, R2
Mens Singles: Nick Kyrgios vs Matt Ebden
Handicap: Nick Kyrgios -4.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $103

Will give Kyrgios the benefit of the doubt to play a good first game in Brisbane and by all reports he's working hard to get rid of the distractions in his life away from tennis to focus more on tennis. Not only is he on a different pedestal to Matt Ebden playing ability wise I watched his match with Tiafoe, and Tiafoe was awful, and played like a teenager. Sprayed errors everywhere, was not consistent enough on his serving. Kyrgios has far superior movement and shot selection then Ebden and if he's determined this Australian summer he should beat him easily.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hopman Cup Exhbition, Round Robin
Germany vs Canada: Mens Singles
Alexander Zverev vs Vasek Pospisil
Handicap: Alexander Zverev -4.5 @ 1.854 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 for a profit of $85.40

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Alexander Zverev -4.5 @ 1.854 on Pinnacle - (+$85.40)
Handicap: Nick Kyrgios -4.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle (-$100)

YTD: 8 - 18 - 1 (-$1002.10)

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, R2
Mens Singles: Mischa Zverev vs Michael Mmoh
Handicap: Michael Mmoh +2.5 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle - Stake: $100 to profit $97
Moneyline: Michael Mmoh @ 2.429 on Pinnacle - Stake: $50 to profit $71.49

There seems to be a lot of favouritism for Mischa Zverev which is sort of understandable but I don't think he was exactly playing great against JPS. He got broken early before having to break and break him back again, he also got broken serving for the match. JPS, while playing hard is a flawed player. While his level is higher then Mmoh I dont mind the young American to win this match outright as he has built up some form and confidence through qualifying as well as his first round match, so far winning six straight sets. And to add to that not being broken as well despite facing break points. I wasn't entirely sold on M Zverev and think Mmoh has a shot here.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, R2
Fernando Verdasco vs Andrey Rublev
Handicap: Fernando Verdasco -2 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $99

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, R2
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Borna Coric
Handicap: Nikoloz Basilashvili +3.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle - Stake: $100 to profit $94.30
Moneyline: Nikoloz Basilashvili @ 2.84 on Pinnacle - Stake: $50 to profit $92

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, R2
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Richard Gasquet
Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas +3.5 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle - Stake: $100 to profit $106
Moneyline: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 3.47 on Pinnacle - Stake: $50 to profit $123.50

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hopman Cup Exhbition, Round Robin
Australia vs Belgium: Mens Singles
David Goffin vs Thanisi Kokkinakis
Handicap: David Goffin -4.5 @ 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 for a profit of $107

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Michael Mmoh +2.5 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle - (+$97)
Moneyline: Michael Mmoh @ 2.429 on Pinnacle - (+$71.49)
Handicap: Fernando Verdasco -2 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Handicap: Nikoloz Basilashvili +3.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Moneyline: Nikoloz Basilashvili @ 2.84 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Moneyline: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 3.47 on Pinnacle - (+$123.50)
Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas +3.5 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle - (+$106)
Handicap: David Goffin -4.5 @ 2.07 on Pinnacle - (+$107)

YTD: 13 - 21 - 1 (-$797.11)

Was, truth be told more confident in Nikoloz then Stefanos to bag the upset haha oh well

[Jeff_Black]

On a side note, I know a lot of people here have already thrown in their two cents worth for the Australian Open winner, so from what I've seen so far and just in general over time. A player who's definately in the mix (capable of making it to the QF) and from there it's anyones and being able to match it with anyone and who seems undervalued by the odds at the moment is David Goffin. I'll see who offers the best odds for him outright but his form despite exhibition has impressed me and I think as mentioned he's a bit undervalued.

Edit:
ITF Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles
Futures/Outrights: To Win The Tournament
David Goffin @ 26.00 on Sportsbet
Stake: $50 for a profit of $1250

Most bookies have a tad over 20-1 but at those odds I'll take them.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, Mens Singles, R2
Denis Istomin vs Jared Donaldson
Handicap: Jared Donaldson -1.5 @ 2.09 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $109

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, Mens Singles, R2
Kyle Edmund vs Hyeon Chung
Handicap: Hyeon Chung -1.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $90.90

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hopman Cup Exhbition, Round Robin
Russia vs Japan: Mens Singles
Karen Khachanov vs Yuichi Sugita
Handicap: Karen Khachanov -2 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 for a profit of $98

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hopman Cup Exhbition, Round Robin
Switzerland vs USA: Mens Singles
Roger Federer vs Jack Sock
Handicap: Roger Federer -5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 for a profit of $102

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, Mens Singles, R2
Grigor Dimitrov vs John Millman
Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -4.5 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $96.10

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Pune 250, Tata Open Maharashtra, Men's Singles, QF
Robin Haase vs Benoit Paire
Moneyline: Benoit Paire @ 2.23 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $123

ATP Pune 250, Tata Open Maharashtra, Men's Singles, QF
Handicap: Mikhail Kukushkin +4 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Mikhaio Kukushkin @ 4.55on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $104
Stake: $50 to profit $177.55

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, QF
Mirza Basic vs Guido Pella
Moneyline: Mirza Basic @ 2.60 on Pinnacle
Handicap: Mirza Basic +2.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: $50 to profit $80
Stake: $100 to profit $102

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, QF
Dominic Thiem vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Handicap: Dominic Thiem -3.5 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $100

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, QF
Gael Monfils vs Peter Gojowczyk
Handicap: Gael Monfils -3 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $100

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Jared Donaldson -1.5 @ 2.09 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Handicap: Hyeon Chung -1.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Handicap: Karen Khachanov -2 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle - (+$98)
Handicap: Roger Federer -5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -4.5 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Moneyline: Benoit Paire @ 2.23 on Pinnacle - (+$123)
Handicap: Mirza Basic -3.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle (-$50)
Moneyline: Mirza Basic @ 2.60 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Handicap: Mikhail Kukushkin +4 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Moneyline: Mikhail Kukushkin @ 4.55 on Pinnacle (-$50)
Handicap: Dominic Thiem @ 2.00 on Pinnacle - (+$100)
Handicap: Gael Monfils @ 2.00 on Pinnacle - (+$100)

YTD: 17 - 29 - 1 (-$1076.11)

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, Mens Singles, QF
Denis Istomin vs Ryan Harrison
Handicap: Ryan Harrison -1.5 @ 2.139 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $113

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Ryan Harrison -1.5 @ 2.13 on Pinnacle - (+$113)

YTD: 18 - 29 - 1 (-$963.11)




ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, Mens Singles, QF
Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyle Edmund
Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -3.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $102

ATP Hopman Cup Exhbition, Round Robin
Australia vs Germany: Mens Singles
Thanisi Kokkinkas vs Alexander Zverev
Set Handicap: Alexander Zverev -1.5 sets @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 for a profit of $92.50