A -500 tennis play with value.....

[Netprofit]

Okay, but that doesn't mean the fair value of the line wasn't -800.

with all due respect ...

Caroline Wozniacki is -500 versus Sorana Cirstea is a bad play in my opinion, for these reasons:

1. Wozniacki lost first set to Dushevina, a so-so Russian player in the first round and barely recovers with a 7-5 second set before winning;

2. Cirstea is in good form, beating Cornet easily in the second round and was good before Roland Garros,

3. This is Roland Garros where the likelihood of non clay-court top players (for whom Wozniacki is) losing in upsets is the highest among the 4 Slams;

-500 might win but i think it is not value above -300 here, instead i will play Cirstea for a juicy +425

[daggerkobe]

This is why I always say Crazyl should become a tout if this mod gig doesnt work out.

Just like Lang, neither knows anything about sports or gambling. Both always have excuse after excuse. Its never their fault, it was always the player, coach, ref or weather because they were on the "right" side. Both also hide losses and delete their records.

[Netprofit]

Wozzi was up 4-0 and serving at 40-15 before totally collapsing, guess she may have been injured as earlier reports indicated.

Congrats.

champions dun let opponent back from a 4-0, 40-15 ...

... she can make it at big time if she improves on here killer instinct, that subtle aspect of a sports champion.

[cuteboy86hi]

Djokobitch had already lost me the parlay so this doesnt affect me.

1 thing, whenever this "lock" thread comes up the chances of the fav player decrease.It happened with that mets thread that machinecash made too.
Normally wozniacki wud've won it but a separate thread created too much pressure on her .

Its funny how hard this day looked for the underdogs and just when it looked all dark for dogs 2 of the biggest upsets of the tourney happened.I guess underdog strategy works better than favs.Not gonna lay heavy bets on favs anymore.

[Tsoprano]

He lost???

You can not make this shit up.

[tacomax]

-800?

How did you determine this? Please show your steps.

Blonde hair: -100
Danish: -200
Nice : -300
Very fukkable: -400
Seen some camel toe pictures: -500
Speaks Russian: -600
Probably does it Russian: -700
Reported injury: -800

[pavyracer]

Blonde hair: -100
Danish: -200
Nice : -300
Very fukkable: -400
Seen some camel toe pictures: -500
Speaks Russian: -600
Probably does it Russian: -700
Reported injury: -800

[SBR Lou]

Actually, this play was one that my model indicated was even higher than -800 but I had to account for a number of recent indicators which drove the fair value down slightly.

[Tsoprano]

Lou: As Barkley would say, you are TURRIBLE!

[yisman]

Appreciate the info, but I don't care if she lost a rib, she shouldn't be just -500 against Cirstea. Now if this was semis, OK, Wozniacki is young and has shown some signs of mental collapse, but the pressure isn't on yet and the Great Dane will blast her off the court with precision.

Cirstea>Wozniacki

[mathdotcom]

Guys why are you insulting his model?

A model that consistently picks losers is just as good as one that picks winners.

[twister]

Guys why are you insulting his model?

A model that consistently picks losers is just as good as one that picks winners.

Exactly.

This model is the most amazing fade material, quite possibly ever.

[Fischnasty]

another crazylou classic

[betplom]

Lou: As Barkley would say, you are TURRIBLE!

[Patrick McIrish]

Never lay big wood on women's tennis, they have a bad period and they just don't give a damn if they win or lose. Used to play doubles with the exwife, she taught me that.

[Tsonga]

You don't have to play big favorites to win in tennis betting. Look at LT Profits, he always takes dogs and he's up nicely.

its smart playing but he is down not up.

[yisman]

Tsonga, this is an old thread that was bumped. fearless no longer posts here and LT Profits was up in tennis in 2009.

I play dogs almost exclusively and I'm up a good bit, so you can use me as an example instead.

[tailmypicks]

yisman how come u stopped posting ur plays? an year or two ago u updated ur thread daily not so much now

[yisman]

I haven't had as much time for tennis lately. I still occasionally post and I'm doing quite well this year. I have to update my record.