My value pick of the day - Another Tommy Haas, another chance to fade?

[gorwin068]

ATP Houston: Opelka R. vs Haas T.

Last time I opened a thread to fade 39-year old Haas and Jiri Vesely got the job done. As I said, whenever I see any match with Haas again, I will probably just fade him. Here is the chance again, the court surface is clay, which he didn't play any match on that since July, 2015.
Opelka is a talented American player with a massive serve(Isner 2.0), the tournament is also in USA so he will probably get support from the home crowd. The only concern is that he has been playing much more on hard court instead of clay court in the ATP/Challenger circuit too.

But with this line, I am happy to fade Haas again. The line of Opelka is also dropping too, opening odds of ML were 1.92 and now dropped to 1.74 only.

My value pick of the day: Opelka handicap -1.5 games @ 1.925(-108) @ Pinnacle

[pattymayo]

Was about to make a thread on this. Only concern is Opelka withdrew in Miami last month, though id assume he's healthy now

[gambleForLife]

I like it. I bet the ML though, as Haas in his last matches played a really tough 1 set and ended up losing in 3, so just to avoid a 4-6 7-5 7-6 scenario.

[Conqueror]

Should have been a nice play but Opelka isn't reliable.

[pistolpeat]

Opelka is also 6'11 not really conducive to clay court play. Haaa has been in terrible form lately but I will be pulling for him but won't be putting money on either.

[pattymayo]

Yeah, scared of Opelka on clay.

[gorwin068]

Opelka lost a tight 1st set, he had 3 break point chances on Haas's serve in 4th game but he couldn't covert it. And also losing 4 straight points when leading 5-3 up on his serve in Tiebreak to lose the 1st set.

[pistolpeat]

Guy has a serve and that's it.

[sunshineSpecial]

I was kind of excited about him last year when he had a few decent upsets, but I think he's ultimately mediocre like Fritz and Tiafoe. If he doesn't win this, he's officially peaked.

[gorwin068]

He finally broke Haas's serve!! leading 3-2 in 2nd set...very likely to have a final set

[pistolpeat]

Yeah probably where or not he can hold is a different story

[gorwin068]

Final set underway...not surprised to see a final set tiebreak though

[pistolpeat]

Just a reminder here Mr. Haas is 39 years old

[jtoler]

I was kind of excited about him last year when he had a few decent upsets, but I think he's ultimately mediocre like Fritz and Tiafoe. If he doesn't win this, he's officially peaked.

Youre giving up too quick on these guys. Fritz lost some this year because he choked in 3rd set, he's young he'll figure it out and will rise, just has to not stay discouraged, love tennis, and always strive to get better. Tiafoe is gonna be fine too, both these guys have the tools, Tiafoe needs to work on focus more sometimes seems he gets down on himself, neither are 20 yet.

[gorwin068]

Loss

[sunshineSpecial]

Opelka trucking along as underdog right now.