Cut It's Friday, Let's Get High on Cash

[EaglesPhan36]

Del Potro +175 (Murray)
Should be a dandy here between two guys who haven't quite taken to playing on clay yet in their young careers. Murray leads the head-2-head battle, but none have come on dirt. Del Potro has at least taken a set off him in their last two match-ups (Miami in '09 & the US Open). After flaming out in Monte Carlo in his first match on clay this year, Del Potro has come back with a 4-1 record. He's beaten a decent clay courter in Wawrinka twice. His lone loss to Djokovic. He is 17-3 in his last 20 on the surface and that's with wins over Gasquet, Andreeve and Davydenko .. all decent on the surface. The Scot meanwhile has played just 10 clay court matches in the past year. He had a nice run in Monte Carlo ended by Nadal, but then got beat by Monaco in the 1st round in Rome. He has wins over Robredo & Bolelli here, but neither brings the package of Del Potro (power/return ability). I'd bank on this being a three setter with the current form of both and once you get that far, there's no reason in my book not to take a shot at the better price. If Del Potro can find success in the 1st set, look for him to make a legit push to win this.

[Spanks]

looks good...how about Lubo +650 over the Joker? He is on a magical run right now and the Madrid mid-day heat and fatigue might help him beat the joker...

[EaglesPhan36]

Also Parlayed: Djokovic, Federer, Wozniacki, Jankovic. Every $50 wagered would earn you $30.67 potentially. All four have about as favorable a match-up vs. their opponent as you can get.

[EaglesPhan36]

looks good...how about Lubo +650 over the Joker? He is on a magical run right now and the Madrid mid-day heat and fatigue might help him beat the joker...

I'd never take Djokovic in a single match at the ridiculous -1000 price, but I think he's playing the best clay court tennis outside of Nadal. In fact, Nadal is the only guy to beat him on the surface in 2009. Ljubicic is lucky to be in this spot. Simon imploded. Djokovic won't. Spanks, Djokovic actually has a fitness coach now and while that work won't truly play out until the summer I think, the forecasts I see only indicate temps in the low 70s. Don't think heat would be a factor anyhow.

[cuteboy86hi]

Del Potro +175 (Murray)
Should be a dandy here between two guys who haven't quite taken to playing on clay yet in their young careers. Murray leads the head-2-head battle, but none have come on dirt. Del Potro has at least taken a set off him in their last two match-ups (Miami in '09 & the US Open). After flaming out in Monte Carlo in his first match on clay this year, Del Potro has come back with a 4-1 record. He's beaten a decent clay courter in Wawrinka twice. His lone loss to Djokovic. He is 17-3 in his last 20 on the surface and that's with wins over Gasquet, Andreeve and Davydenko .. all decent on the surface. The Scot meanwhile has played just 10 clay court matches in the past year. He had a nice run in Monte Carlo ended by Nadal, but then got beat by Monaco in the 1st round in Rome. He has wins over Robredo & Bolelli here, but neither brings the package of Del Potro (power/return ability). I'd bank on this being a three setter with the current form of both and once you get that far, there's no reason in my book not to take a shot at the better price. If Del Potro can find success in the 1st set, look for him to make a legit push to win this.

the site from where i see the records shows that they have played thrice and their first match was on clay last year in rome.It was 1-1 when delpo retired.I'm going with all the favourites.I pick murray cos of his better defense.

[cuteboy86hi]

I'm getting this feeling about verdasco.Should be a more competitive game than their last one.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Question for me is Del Potro's serve. It was phenomenal against Berdych, really exploiting the airspeed and bounce height at altitude in Madrid, but useless against Wawrinka. If he gets a large serve advantage he's a likely winner, because Murray will find it very difficult to handle his relentless pace and depth from the back of the court ..... not to mention the lack of errors. Hard to see where Murray wins points from the back of the court really, although he always seems to find a way - I've no idea how he beat Davydenko in Monte Carlo, for example. He'll need to find his range very precisely, use all the angles, move Potro around all over the place, make plenty uses of slice, try break Potro's rhythm. On hard that's an easy task for Murray, but on clay, under the heavy weight of shot Potro delivers, with the dodgy bounces in Madrid, that sort of precision is far harder to achieve.

There's also the motivation factor. Murray knows if he beats Del Potro, it's Fed in the semis, a matchup he knows he can win (yes, harder on clay, but fundamentally he's a very difficult opponent for Fed). Winning that would mean he highly likely takes the number two ranking in the next month, even with a loss in the final - and seeing the Monte Carlo second set vs Nadal, I really want to see that match on these vastly faster clay courts (winning the tournament means Murray is number 2 on Monday). There's also specific issues between these two - Del Potro made a comment about Murray's mother in a previous match, and it's always been a bit spiky since.

Really stuck on this one. I have a lot more respect for Del Potro than many others - he is the genuine article imo, and I wasn't surprised he beat Nadal in Miami (see my posts at the time!). Breaking down the match, I see advantage Del Potro, particularly in the sheer weight of shot he delivers. Psychology, the winning mentality, it's Murray all the way. One stat is useful to demonstrate this: tiebreak records. Murray is winning 75% of them this last year, which is a country mile beyond ridiculous. Even Nadal on clay only wins 67%, and he's the greatest ever to pick up a racket on that surface, not to mention unbelievably clutch. Tiebreaks crystallise a player's big point mentality, and Murray has that in spades now.

Probably I'll end up on the over. This will likely be a really tough match for Murray, but instinct is he finds the way to nick it, but likely he drops a set in the process - as he did vs Potro in Miami, at the US Open (and won two sets there in tiebreaks), and last year in Rome.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good insight HeeHaw. Like I said when you look at it, this is much closer to a 50-50 match in my opinion, so getting a good price on Del Potro makes more sense to me.

[single shaker]

i took murray at -3.5 games +100

[Phillth]

im all over potro/murray over 22. should be a battle.

[meganie]

I'm gonna go in play in this, Murray had troubles in pretty much every first set on clay, probably wait for the break and then back Murray.

[Phillth]

why are the stands empty at this potro/murray match?

[EaglesPhan36]

Verdasco-Nadal was right before this. I'm sure that was most people's match of the day to see. Spain vs. Spain.

[Phillth]

shit i would get my moneys worth and stay for this match. #3 vs.#5 c'mon

[EaglesPhan36]

No shit and the 1st set was worth it. Murray was up a break at 4-2 and serving, Del Potro breaks him and then closes out the 1st set in a tie break. Let's see if he stays strong in the 2nd and can get Murray down!

[meganie]

Good call, Del Potro was clutch today, Murray wasted way too many chances.

[EaglesPhan36]

It was Friday. And Del Potro giveth thee cash for the weekend. Straight sets smackdown! 7-6, 6-3.

[CaneDawg]

love the avatar eaglesphan

he once had an awkard moment just to see what it would feel like

best commercials going right now

[EaglesPhan36]

I once took a -2000 favorite just to see what Crazy Lou felt like.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Not seen Murray play that badly in over a year. He seemed to be cruising, break up first set, then lost the plot utterly - 11 points in a row, then lost a tiebreak (an extreme rarity for him these days), and was atrocious in the 2nd set. Very odd for him to have such an extended period, unable to find any touch or feel on the racket whatsoever.


Del Potro was OK, nothing more. I figured if he was like this he'd lose comfortably, and until Murray's brainfart that seemed to be happening.