Chaz22 late Autumn picks

Lightning · 10-18-16, 10:05 PM

Well done man. I'm pissed off at myself because I had Kovalik initially as well, but was then like 'nah, probably won't happen' and dropped him. Should've trusted myself to begin with.

Chaz22 · 10-19-16, 01:39 AM

Nice sweep to begin the week.

Marchenko in both sets could not serve it out so really unlucky not to come out as a winner.
And as suspected Careno had to work hard to get himself through to next round.

Today's picks:

# Antwerp

1) Seppi ML @ 2.01

Being one of the most unreliable players still think Seppi should win this one. Haase is a better player on clay, Seppi on hard courts.
They have some H2H matches which kinda prove court trend - Seppi won all 5 hard court matches, and lost the only clay court encounter.

2) Kovalik ML @ 2.72

Same like yesterday, think Kovalik has some confidence gained with this little run of wins, while Cuevas has been average at best during this hard-court swing.
It will be tough again form him to get a win.

3) Darcis ML @ 2.25

Simply going against Paire here. I have no idea (which is bad) in what form Darcis is right now, but Paire coming off that Asian trip can easily tank this.

So all 3 picks from Antwerp, I checked Moscow and Stockhlom games but strangely have no leans there. Think overall favorites will roll there, but then again, yesterday proved that at this time of the year
some strange upsets happen more often than you could expect.

Chaz22 · 10-19-16, 11:55 PM

Today's picks:

1) Schwartzman ML @ 2.6

This is a risk bet, I admit. I mean it's based in Fritz's stuggle in 1st round and more or less good win for Diego over Mahut.

2) Lajovic ML @ 2.15

Kohlschreiber is just on a very bad run as of late because of the injury problems. On the other side you have Lajovic who is no hard court player but he still managed to beat Tipsarevic in 2 sets.

3) Bublik +5.5 @ 2.04

After the impressive performance in Shnaghai I cant resist of thinking that letdown spot is here for Agut. Cant see him coming here and destroying this local
guy so +5.5 games is just perfect.

4) Elias G +5.5 @ 1.952

Same as with Agut, I think Monfils is not going to give that much of an effort at the first match of 250 tournament.

Chaz22 · 10-21-16, 12:06 AM

I suppose yesterday was not a bad day, but bit disappointing on missing out those
upsets not only wih Monfils and Agut but overall in these late year tournaments.

Today quite the same with potential upsets and Im sure some of them will result.

So here we go

1) Schwartzman ML @ 2.35

Interesting match-up. Somehow I stick to the thought that Diego feels better on these courts
in this time of the year. Results have certainly proved that.

3) Bellucci ML @ 2.31

One of my favourite games of the day. I still dont buy in Kohlschreiber's game. Yes, he
survived to beat Lajovic which was a good win but now here comes a greater test in Bellucci who
I think plays better at the moment.

4) Anderson ML @ 3

Andersons maybe last chance of this season to get some good result. He didnt start bad with
beating Harrison and Bag-man. Even though the history favors Dimitrov I think odds should be
more equal.

5) Elias ML @ 5.1

Watched him playing against Monfils who was obviously struggling, but I was really surprised
how good the portugese felt on this court. Served well, moved well, hit the ball pretty hard.
Sock had 2 tough rounds against average players which maybe suggests that he as well is feeling
the heavy season on his shoulders. There are 2 scenarios I think. Either Sock wins in 2 sets
most likely covering the spread of -4.5 or it will be a close battle again and I dont think
he will survive another 3-set match.

Miha UtroÅ¡a · 10-21-16, 05:47 AM

Great job man..good predicts

Chaz22 · 10-22-16, 12:45 AM

I suppose it was coming.
Bad day, 2 really bad selections and one unlucky with Anderson who couldn't press down in decider.

From all the semifinals I really like the Moscow's both games.

1) Fognini ML @ 2.01

Going against Kohlshreib for the 3rd time cause I just dont buy into what I see. Being aware of what a crazy animal Fognini is, I still think this will be the biggest win in this tournament for the German if he pulls this out. And Fabio tends to give more damn about tennis when it
comes to these deciding stages.

2) Robert +3.5 @ 2.02

Robert has proved to me he is in good shape and mind right now by beating arguably better players than him. And Carreno really lucky to have gotten that far. I think it will be a 3-set encounter or even Robert's straight set victory.

one more match im considering and most likely will take it is:

Schwartzman +5.5 @ 1.854

Playing on unfavorable courts against local home boy, who also happens to be a top seed and is ranked what? no 12 in the world right now. Last year about the same time they played in Davis cup and Goffin smoked him. Yes, Davis Cup is Davis Cup but still.
Somehow though things do change a bit and this tournament has proven that. Goffin has not been that really good, and Diego has collected some confidence-booster wins. Will be tough but it's possible to cover this.

Chaz22 · 10-23-16, 01:04 AM

Well, what do you know - Diego managed to pull an upset. He deserves a final pick of the week.

Schwartzman +4 @ 2.09

I almost want to pick ML win for him, but have no problem with this spread as well. Hopefully he has something left in him after these
impressive wins and if he does it should be close as Gasquet is probably the same category as Goffin.

In other finals I dont see any problem for Fognini and Del Po to get victories.

So this wraps-up the overall solid week and on Monday we resume with Basel and Vienna.

Chaz22 · 10-24-16, 05:44 AM

Let's open up new week with couple of picks

1) Johnson ML @ 2.05

I think Karlovic is feeling it a bit at the end of this season. He is quite old now, so despite his playing style, it is more difficult to play at his best through out the year.
Johnson failed in Stockholm, has all the chances here, to be more successful.

2) Marchenko ML @ 2.14

Here I think Marchenko feels much better on indoor-courts than D. Young who likes more space and outdoors. Marchenko has a better serve and only concern is his ability to choke, but Young is a choker himself, so I think this will balance out.

Chaz22 · 10-25-16, 02:10 AM

Poor start....so more selective here with just one pick.

Troicki ML @ 2.11

Not much to say here, other than Troicki had some bad results recently and think he will be willing to bounce back more. Abderson is no gimmie of course and can cause a lot of problems.

Depending on outcome of this ill post more.

pabonaparte · 10-25-16, 08:03 AM

close game here

Chaz22 · 10-25-16, 09:56 AM

Yup, close it was....too darn close.

No more selections from me today.

Chaz22 · 10-26-16, 01:51 AM

Today I fancy more games than usual.

1) Robert ML @ 4.15

This first one is a big one. On normal circumstances you would pick German here easily, and it seems that he has gained some match practice now and will play better and better. Well, I doubt that. There is an equal chance that he will retire early (reason I didnt take spread) if things dont go easy for him.
Robert also played well in last tournament, which may suggest he will drop down a bit, but im absolutely fine to take this risk.

2) Lopez ML @ 2.11

I give higher value to Lopez because he won a tougher match against uprising Pouille than Insner's triumph over Struff. It's never easy against big-John, but Lopez will be ready for this Im sure.

3) Dzumhur +2.5 @ 2.09

Easily the best bet for me today, as Dzumhur has equal chances of winning this one. So if you give me this spread as an insurance im taking it.

4) Verdasco ML @ 2.35

My last pick goes against warrior named Carreno-Busta who just won the tournament in which I thought he'd be tired enough to loose early. No, didnt happen. He instead scrambled through and won the whole thing. Now he should pay the price, and even if he has to play against Verdasco who was really bad and I think he lost to Ymer's younger brother in 2 quick sets. Im still going against Busta here.

I also agree with Lightning on Pellas +4.5. He aint that bad.

Chaz22 · 10-31-16, 03:43 AM

Pella +3.5 games @ 2.03
Johnson in a bad shape. Maybe he'll be fine now, but Pella has been showing some decent tennis as of late. Think this will be close match.

Chaz22 · 11-01-16, 03:44 AM

A bounce back or keep-fallin' day....we shall see

1) Klizan +1.5 games @ 1.952

I really like Klizan's chances today. In normal circumstances you wouldnt pick him over Mahut on indoor courts, but French man has clearly struggled throug-out the October by loosing to some players he should have beaten. Klizan's form isnt better but that last match against Murray showed some positive signs so unless
Mahut gets his serve and volley rolling I do think Klizan will advance. Taking the small spread here over the ML just because Klizan is often retiring because of injuries. Not taking this chance today.

2) Sousa +4.5 games @ 1.877

Is this supposed to tbe the trap-line where Berdych suddenly playes better just because he needs points for the London or because this is ATP Masters event and he does not really care about lower level tournaments? I cant buy into this. He has lost that consistency that carried him over the years and Sousa will not gift him this match. I think Berdych's struggles will ongo here.

3) Lopez F. -2 games @ 1.952

Lopez has picked it up and he will raise his level for the occasion again. Herbert can be good at times, but the experienced lefty should win this and cover the spread.

4) Lajovic +2.5 games @ 1.877

As usual, if you see +2.5 games against Karlovic it should be considered and I think Karlovic will be a bit tired after the longer run in Vienna.

So this is it for now. Depending on first couple selection outcomes I may add some extra picks today.

Chaz22 · 11-02-16, 04:15 AM

3 out of 4, although I have to admit, really upset with Klizan not covering the line yesterday. today I select:1) Lopez F. +2 games @ 1.909They just played and Lopez won in 3-sets, dont think much will change here and 3-set battle is to be seen. Lopez looked decent against Herbert and think it will be tough for home boy to snatch a win here.2) Karlovic ML @ 3.46Yesterday was against Karlovic with this spread, today im backing him with a win. He really has a good H2H with Cilic and Marin coming off that win in Basel may start a bit slow today. If Karlovic's serve will not work then obviously he'll losse the match and not cover the spread, but if we get to tie-breaks or even see some lazy gaem from Cilic then certainly ML has a huge value.3) Sock ML @ 2.21I believe in Sock now, he blew away Kohlschreiber, now comes tired Thiem. Taking a better-form player here.4) Muller +4.5 games @ 1.97My last bet goes against Novak who has not been that sharp and I think it will take again some time before he gets into some rythm. Against big servers in first rounds Novak will focus more on his serve games i think. and my bonus pick:Troicki +4.5 games @ 1.99As much as Troicki struggled yesterday and almost lost it (think he even saved a matchpoint) there is a chance he will improve, but this play goes more against Nishikori who same as Cilic had a long run in Basel and he might be just bad on serve. This is risky for sure, as it might be completely opposite but im backing Troicki here.

pabonaparte · 11-26-16, 04:26 PM

Hello Chaz22, could you send me a PM please?

Chaz22 · 11-28-16, 10:41 PM

Sorry, no, SBR took away that privilege from me.