Chaz22 picks ----- US Open 2016

[Chaz22]

reviewing yesterday and picks


relatively okey day, but disappointingly unlucky with 3 bigger wagers where only one was successful.
I mean Tipsarevic was so close on winning that one which would help the bad overall situation a lot. And Granollers had his chances as well even though score suggests differently.
all Murray backers shouldnt feel that comfortable as I dont see Andy in semifinals at all. Sure he'll win Lorenzi but after that every match is a potential loss.
Hats off for Karlovic holding on there against the crowd and hot-head Young.
Also Sousa is worth mentioning.


11W-22L-1P
-6.87 units




Look-ahead for the 3rd round


Some interesting match-ups like Sousa vs Dimitrov where Id say you can surely put some money on Sousa +games or +sets.
Same goes for Wawrinka vs Evans.
Thiem - Busta seems as the most even matchup but could be also Thiem's easy win.
Del Po gets a tricky Ferrer but still looks good enough to beat him in straight sets id say.
Nishi - Mahut also one to look for where again I suspect some problems for samurai man.


Murray, Karlovic and Kyrgios should all get through pretty comfortable in their next matches.

Day 5 - Round 3


Ok, today's matches I see some huge upsets. Let's see...

Almagro ML @ 6.79
+ Almagro +2.5 sets @ 1,80 as insurance.


give me a break. at these odds I just cant resist taking spaniard here. You can brag about Monfils super-form all you want I dont buy it. Hhe didnt look that convincing in his first 2 matches
and Almagro didnt spend too much effort in his games as well..It's gonna be close.


Harrison ML @ 2.18


Baghdatis looks in well prepared but if you manage to win Raonic then your game is good as well. So lets keep going for Harris here.


Pouille +1.5 sets @ 2.58


I've waited for this match quite long now. Pouile's game is nowhere near his best possible but if he manages to keep Agut longer in this match his chances of winning will increase every minute.

[JohnHanson]

I like Sousa very much vs. Dimitrov, he playing well so far and if he has the self-confidence he is hard to beat. They played US Open 2013 which Sousa won 3-2. Also h2h from 2015 (hardcourt) was a close one (2-1 Dimitrov).

ml @4,3 and + 5,5 @1,9x are good value imo.

Hard games today. Monfils is in good mode and can win with hc in three sets. Alamagro a bit overrated after win vs. handicapped Cuevas in close 3 sets. Agut can win in three sets too imo, I think Pouille a bit overrated. Harrison is my prediction too, he playing very strong atm but Baghdatis are very unpredictable. At ~ 2,40 I would bet Harrison. 2,20 a bit to close for me. Mahut vs. Nishikori I looking hard, but have to thinking more about it. Nishikori are one of the best return player on the tour. Mahut are not that good in the ralleys, he can getting in very much trouble if his first serves are not hitting. Maybe I bet on Nishikori hc if the lines are dropping to Mahuts side, because people thinking he had a close game vs. Khachanov and the "troll" game vs. Becker. But I see the game from Khachanov he played very strong, also in the ralleys he looked so strong and this with 1,98 m. Have this guy in my mind for the next games. I think we see him in top 50 rankend place in the nearly future.

My bets for today are Anderson - Tsonga over 41 @1,83. Both serving well so far and they played three times each other in 7 sets. They played 5 tie breaks and one 7-5 and 6-4. I dont believe some one go out in straight sets. Also bet on the Anderson ml @2,9x. To high odds here imo. Anderson always hard to beat.

Best play Youzhny + 8,5 @1,95. This Youzhny are this year not the Youzhny in past. He won 3 Challengers in 2016 and has a 26-4 record on hardcourt. Youzhny showed strong first matches. Also I believe the walk over from Vesely are not good for Djokovic, because he has lower rhythm. Both had close games in the past. Also a bet on first set Youzhny @5,4x. + 2,5 sets odds are to low for me for a bet.

Gl today sir

[Chaz22]

as always great input, ans it makes me a bit sad, that your reasonable opinions conflicts most of my selections.


But i cant disagree with you except maybe for Youzhny .... I believe in those who are saying that Djoker free days will help him + Youzhny is an old old man. He cant compete at this level. maybe one set will be 10 games long, but the whole match should be in 25-27 gama range so under 29.5 looks good..




but im more looking at the other big seed here...so far Nadal looking good, but here comes the first big test. i foresee 4 close sets to me and Nadal edging ahead.
so either over 32 or +7.5 games is a gift i think.


Tsonga - Anderson - over seems like the best choice but so i thoought the same yesterday with Mahut/Mathieu and that ended badly. From the 2 of them Anderson looked the better one in his first matches...but it can change from match to match....and i think Tsonga will step it up today...so Ill give one more try for -1.5 sets

so adding:

Nadal - Kuznetsov over 32 @ 2.00

Tsonga -1.5 sets @ 2.00

[JohnHanson]

Russians never get old if they don't drink to much ^^

Youzhny are very good in shape. Played very many games in 2016.

Don't thought much about Kuznetsov - Nadal, but my feeling say I like it. I think I will bet it too. In Doha 2016 on hardcourt he grabbed a set vs. Nadal.

Also a element are, Kuznetsov already played in the US Open two left hander with Bellucci and Ramos with solid 7-1 sets. Kuznetsov has a really good two handed backhand what are important vs. lefties with much spin.

[Lightning]

I love Pouille so much, hope he beats Agut today.

Re. Nadal, the way he's playing, the -7.5 is a gift to me haha. He's covered a -10.5 and a -12.5, and it's not like Kuznetsov is that much better than Seppi.

[Jeff_Black]

BOL with Youzhny John but I don't trust him
if it was anyone else I would look twice which I did in this case haha but I just can't pull the trigger

i can't remember if I got on him the last time he played him here but djokovic bagelled him in the last set and covered the line so it wouldn't surprise me to see a 6-1 or 6-2 first set

[Chaz22]

Picks for today:

Busta +1.5 sets @ 2.35
Del Potro -2.5 sets @ 2.60
Evans +6.5 games @ 2.06
Karlovic -1.5 sets @ 2.15
Sousa ML @ 4.15

[Chaz22]

Sundays picks:

Sock ML @ 2.28
Baghdatis +6 @ 2.10
Sevastova +1.5 sets @ 2.06
Sevastova ML @ 4.10

Also looking into:

Nadal under 30.5
Djokovic -8

[JohnHanson]

I like Sevastova much. Why this odd are so high?

Men:

Very hard games today and tomorrow. I only bet Djoker under 31 and - 2,5 sets. Bad matchup for Edmund. His second serve are very weak and his backhand also are not good, he only plays the ball back with it when he cant circulate his backhand. Djoker are smart enough to penetrate Edmunds backhand hard.

Last h2h Miami 2016 harcourt 6-3, 6-3. Djoker had 11 breakpoints and only one against hisself. In his 9 serve games, Djoker only had two times 30-30/30-40 (break).

Nadal - Pouille I like also, Nadal playing very well, but Pouille scares me a bit. I think maybe a set can win this kid.

Tomorrow maybe I bet Thiem as 3,3x dog.

gl!

[Chaz22]

Added Nadal under 30.5 @ 2.00

Nadal has convinced me now and Pouille had couple of 5-setters which wont help him.

[Chaz22]

Oh, Nadal, what is it with you?!?!?

Today:

Thiem +1.5 sets @ 2.2 and Thiem ML @ 3.00

I watched Thiem vs Busta and have to admit Thiem was playing excellent tennis (except for the 1st set where he was clearly not in game mode yet)
As for Del Po - well, as much as I like him this will be tough tough match, because Thiem is a better mover and only high 1st server % could boost his chances of winning here. This definitely can be a 5 set match.

Marchenko +2.5 sets @ 2.10

Marchenko is a nobody - agreed. However, when such guys get into 4th round they can find their shots and up their games and unless they play against Novak or Murray things can get tricky. Ill give him a set.


Dimitrov over 36.5 @ 2.00 and Dimitrov ML @ 6.25

Time to go home Andy. It's been a great summer so far, but you are human and last match against Lorenzi proved that. Now Dimitrov should put you away. Knowing how unstable he is I'll give this match a bit longer game time and games. But apart form that what a treat for us at odds 6.25.

Karlovic vs Nishikori deserves Over. Can Ivo win it? I doubt that, but it's not impossible. Still considering options what to take form this match,

[Lightning]

haha we always seem to be on opposite sides. I took Stan -2.5 and you went Marchenko +2.5.

I also think Murray will be too strong for Dimitrov... just because he faltered in one set against Lorenzi, it doesn't mean he's suddenly shit aha.

[Chaz22]

haha we always seem to be on opposite sides. I took Stan -2.5 and you went Marchenko +2.5.

I also think Murray will be too strong for Dimitrov... just because he faltered in one set against Lorenzi, it doesn't mean he's suddenly shit aha.

yes, Lightning, it seems so. You are betting more on favs and cant blame you as they do win more often than lose.

[Lightning]

yes, Lightning, it seems so. You are betting more on favs and cant blame you as they do win more often than lose.

Don't get me wrong, I love a good underdog, but it has to be in the right situation. I just prefer taking the favourites to win and win well, because they are the better player for a reason.

[Chaz22]

Today's picks:

Pouille ML @ 5.25
Sevastova ML @ 3.35


Djoko probably wins, but might add on Tsongas game handicap.

[JohnHanson]

I am hard on Monfils - 6,5. Pouille played 3 x 5 setter in a row. And the last vs. Nadal in 4:11, vs. Nadal its the hardest minutes ever on court. After the game Pouille had much cramps at the press conferences. One day rest after that hard match are not much. Also Monfils covered ~ 90 % the handicap spread in the america tour - US Open, where he won all games straight. He is on this hardcourt season since the america tour 18-2, only lost vs. Djokovic (0-2), and Nishikori (1-2).

Monfils looking very good, he isnt trolling and joking anymore and he switched his game style a bit. He playing more ralleys and longer ralleys. He doesnt have this many all or nothing hits anymore that much. I believe he will over power Pouille hard today in stressfull ralleys.

Parallels to Wimbledon this year imo., afer good peformance and hard game vs. Tomic (3-2) and then lost 7-6, 6-3, 6-2 vs. Berdych. Now the game are even more stressfull on hardcourt with more ralleys than grass. I dont see any chances for Pouille today.

[w@lt]

I'm high on Woz today- if her level of play remains the same as it has been over the past week, her defense and consistency should be too much for Sevastova.

Also think that Pouille isn't going to have much left in the tank.

[Grivas_Digeni]

I'm high on Woz today- if her level of play remains the same as it has been over the past week, her defense and consistency should be too much for Sevastova.

Also think that Pouille isn't going to have much left in the tank.

Spot on with #2.

What about #1...You think 21 games is a little low?.. Sevastova should get to 5 once, no?

[w@lt]

Spot on with #2.

What about #1...You think 21 games is a little low?.. Sevastova should get to 5 once, no?

Sevastova-Woz went pretty much as I had thought. Woz too consistent, defending too well. Sevastova was injured, but I actually don't think that was a huge factor.