6/27 - 7/3 Wimbledon!

Lightning · 06-26-16, 08:49 PM

Haven't done a huge amount of study myself yet apart from the Cuevas game, but I might have to disagree here. You say 'take away the last week and Kuznetsov would be favoured by far more' - but the fact of the matter is that you can't, and you shouldn't. He got to the final of the tournament, and winning tb and saving bp doesn't take away from his effort, but actually increases how good the victory is. Saving bps is not luck, but skill. Just ask Novak.

I agree that Kuznetsov is playing probably the best he ever has, but Cuevas will be full of confidence. I don't mind the overs though, because I don't imagine either of them taking it 3-0.

nyrb1 · 06-27-16, 08:15 PM

Kuznetsov +100 vs Cuevas 3x
Benneteau +100 vs Marchenko 2x
Dolgopolov -6 -125 vs Donskoy 2x
Almagro/Ferrer/Anderson/Dimitrov parlay +120 2x

On the right track but not the best. Kuznetsov gets it done in 5, Benneteau wins easily. Dolgopolov was coasting and all of a sudden his level dropped. Anderson was up two sets and lost. Both losses had guys on 3rd base and they couldn't score, oh well!

Vesely -130 2x
This one I like. I think Vesely is at a higher level than Sijsling who may have a serve but isn't as consistent. I always like to look at people with good serving rhythm, and Vesley may have lost, but only mostly through a TB against Anderson, Raonic, and Muller. That is some good competiton and if he serves like that agaisnt Sijsling he won't have much trouble.

L. Mayer +100 2x
Yes, The Don played well recently, but he has never won a match at Wimbledon. Leo has reached the 4th and 3rd round past two years and I don't know. Don't trust Young to get it done in a BO5.

F. Mayer +235 2x
You have to, don't you? Former Wimbledon QFist that just beat Thiem and won the Halle championship, who is in good form, and add that this is Thiem's weakest surface. This is a good recipe for a potential upset against a guy who acknowledges his weaknesses and says just getting to the 3rd round would be a positive thing. Thiem has underperformed in slams (until recently at the FO) and has never even made the 3rd round here. This is a massive test for him, and I doubt Mayer will simply lay down.

Burgos +285 2X
I'd like to know exactly why. I mean, I get it, but a proper good reason. Burgos may be a clay guy, but he's a faster clay guy. He did decently enough at Nottingham and the important key is a good start. Granollers has an even worse grass record than Burgos and with weaker opposition. This one could end up being an unexpected fight.

Have locked in for tomorrow: Ferrer -155 (3x), Lisicki -150 (3x), Querrey/Dolgopolov/Cilic (3x)

JohnnyRudeboy · 06-27-16, 09:20 PM

I agree that Granola Bar should not be favored like this vs almost anyone at Wimby. Estrella certainly worth a stab.

Lightning · 06-28-16, 02:18 AM

Really like L Mayer as well, just couldn't bring myself to do it because he hasn't played a match on the surface yet and that's one of my internal rules haha

nyrb1 · 06-28-16, 09:48 PM

Burgos +285 2X

This one was slightly disappointing! I did talk about a good start, and VEB had a horrible one. VEB was right in there after losing the first two, a legitimate 50/50 match except for the early hole. Had one slip-up in the 4th to lose.

Pending:
Vesely -130 2x - 2 sets up.
L. Mayer +100 2x - 1 set down but a break up in the 2nd. Even match as expected.
F. Mayer +235 2x - Very very early but he looked decent.

Ferrer -155 3x
Has Ferrer lost a step? It seems so. Have Mahut/Muller/Karlovic/Isner types ever done well regularly at Wimbledon? No. This seems like a "too good to be true" line but that won't stop me, I have no fear with that type of thing. 5 setters against a defensive master that will make anyone hit balls to win is a tough proposition. If this were a BO3, I'd lay off.. but it's not.

Lisicki -150 3x
Moved up to -170 in the day since. Simple reason: Lisicki at Wimbledon. She has ALWAYS done well here, not just "well" but "at least QF" well. Stosur is always tricky but grass isn't her best and she has a grand total of one upset (barely) win on grass her whole career.

Cilic/Querrey/Dolgopolov -102 3x
Betting on the holy trinity of flakes, maybe should add Dimitrov and frame it on the wall if I win. Ironically it's the biggest favorite I'm worried about most. Stako is a decent player at his best and we all know about Cilic. Querrey I'd almost bet my life on as Bellucci is a truly horrendous grass player and it took an utter scrub like Bemelmans to hand him his first Wimbledon win (watch him lose this one). Dog at a proficient level should beat Evans, but Evans is one of those tricky guys that plays better at home, hence the odds.

Shvedova +178 3x
Love this one for an almost 2/1! Couldn't believe my eyes. Shvedova like Pironkova is always a dangerous floater in tournaments like these, and out of nowhere they go on a good run. Shvedova is generally a super solid fast court player at her best, and guess what.. Svitolina is simply not good on grass. Surprising, yes. Sometimes you understand why the odds are the way they are, but simply see an edge. This is one of those.

Note: Perhaps I should've calibrated the unit sizes better, but oh well. I really am betting bigger at a slam compared to other tournaments. Players are at their peak motivation with nothing else on their mind. No fatigue, no possible tanking, and slams are the only tournaments where you can just focus on the tennis and not all the smaller details.

Lightning · 06-29-16, 03:46 AM

Love Lisicki as well.

Must admit, Mahut tempts me though.

nyrb1 · 06-29-16, 11:10 PM

Vesely -130 2x
F. Mayer +235 2x

Vesely won in straights, and Mayer lost in straights. Thiem elevated his game that much more when it counted.

Pending:
L. Mayer +100 2x
Ferrer -155 3x
Lisicki -150 3x
Cilic/Querrey/Dolgopolov -102 3x
Shvedova +178 3x

Duan +320 2x
Vinci has been horrific on grass for years (for some reason, as she was great before then) and who remembers Duan? Went on a mini-run last year and beat Bouchard, and this year's run is mirroring that one. You never know, and with Vinci's tricks any solid hard-hitter having a good day could beat her.

Watson +130 2x
She was in meltdown mode up 6-3 then 0-6 0-1 but the rain and a Beck slip (she was getting her ankle taped up as the rain started to fall) adds question marks. Watson was an almost -300 favorite and was in the midst of a horrible momentum swing - but the rain stopped it just as it was about to be too late.

Thiem/Vesely Over 35 -120
Vesely +500 1x
These two bets are me certain that Thiem is being way overvalued here. Thiem is good and should be better than Vesely but Vesely is no scrub. He's been playing flawless tennis and has been extremely strong serving, being taken to tiebreaks by Anderson, Raonic, Muller, and Thiem isn't as strong a server as this. An outsider yes, but an undervalued outsider.

Lightning · 06-30-16, 12:46 AM

I agree with you about Vesely. Thiem should beat him but doesn't always dominate throughout the entire match. I thought 3-1 to Thiem at $3.50 (+450 to you) was pretty decent value.

jtoler · 06-30-16, 01:33 AM

Tempted to take Lisicki but she's been having a bad year, Stosur has beaten her on grass 2-1, Lisicki not worth it and when its all over more than likely probably shouldnt have been favored. With that said Im always cautious putting money on nervous Sammy.

jtoler · 06-30-16, 08:06 AM

Good job stayed away myself.

nyrb1 · 06-30-16, 10:43 PM

Finally after the rain delay and multiple pendings, can do a good recap of what's happening so far:

Kuznetsov +100 vs Cuevas 3x
Benneteau +100 vs Marchenko 2x
Dolgopolov -6 -125 vs Donskoy 2x
Almagro/Ferrer/Anderson/Dimitrov parlay +120 2x
Burgos +285 2x
Vesely -130 2x
F. Mayer +235 2x
--------------------------
Today:
L. Mayer +100 2x- Gave it the old college try, DY finally gets his first Wimby win!
Ferrer -155 3x - Got destroyed by Mahut. Grass was always his shakiest surface, and he's lost a step.
Lisicki -150 3x - Easy win.
Cilic/Querrey/Dolgopolov -102 3x - Dog letdown.
Shvedova +178 3x - Awesome win, really dug in there.
Duan +320 2x - Kept up until the business end of each set.
Watson +130 2x - 12-10 in the 3rd always tough.
Thiem/Vesely Over 35 -120 2x- No surprise, Vesely has been serving lights out.
Vesely +500 1x - my only 1x play..... and it hits. Thiem had no answer for the Vesely serve.

7-9 +2.19

nyrb1 · 06-30-16, 11:08 PM

I hate absolutely everything. Not one good even match except Dimitrov/Johnson. Just trying a longshot parlay for fun, but day off.

Lightning · 07-01-16, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by nyrb1

I hate absolutely everything. Not one good even match except Dimitrov/Johnson. Just trying a longshot parlay for fun, but day off.

Yeah it's a bit bare today. Still some value in 3-0 to the good players though.

nyrb1 · 07-01-16, 11:46 PM

Go big or go home, or go big and go home.

Bacsinszky -112 10x
Bouchard +140 10x
Stevens -156 10x

Going with two players who were big favorites coming in, passed a test, and now have to get it done in the 3rd. And Bouchard, because she showed me so much guts against Konta that I think she has a shot at overpowering Cibulkova. For ATP I like Tomic but not when he was looking so tired, and even telling people about it for use as a built-in excuse.