4/30 ATP morning picks

[yisman]

Marin Cilic (+168) over Juan Monaco, risk 2 units
Jurgen Melzer (+410) over Fernando Gonzalez, risk 1 unit
Juan Martin Del Potro (+120) over Stanislas Wawrinka, risk .5 units
Tommy Robredo (+470) over Novak Djokovic, risk 1 unit

odds from Betfair

Gilles Simon (-235) over Mischa Zverev, risk 2 units

WTA

Svetlana Kuznetsova (-130) over Na Li, risk 1.3 units

previous plays:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-handicapping/176601-4-28-morning-picks.html

[yisman]

adding a WTA match.

[yisman]

ugh, bad day. Melzer was thisclose to the upset, too. That would've put me in the black.

[EaglesPhan36]

So is this a system you are using? Or are these just picks? Couldn't remember what you had said originally. Just curious.

[yisman]

trying out a new system. I don't bet tennis much, but I'm testing something for a few days. If it works out, I'll probably post here more often.

One good day, one bad day so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

Care to share what the system is? Just curious when people try systems out - especially in tennis because there often isn't much rhyme or reason to tennis. If you're keeping it bottled up, no biggie.

[yisman]

I'd rather not say. It has like two factors, and it's pretty simplistic. If it does well, I might share it in the future.

It's mostly just looking at underdogs and trying to find ones who have good value. That's what a lot of people do, including LT, but we all have different criteria for what constitutes good value.

2-4, -4.4 on Thursday


I think I'll just start a thread next week and post my daily picks there.