2016 European/US Hardcourt swing picks

**Jeff_Black** · 02-02-16, 10:40 PM

Bad start

ATP Montpellier 250, R16 - Gilles Simon vs Dustin Brown
Total Score: Over 21.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-02-16, 10:52 PM

ATP Quito 250, R16 - Inigo Cervantes vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Handicap: Pablo Carreno Busta -3.5 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**kj8210** · 02-03-16, 02:30 PM

wow had Busta -3.5 in the last leg of a parlay...not sure how he pulled that one out!

**Jeff_Black** · 02-03-16, 09:29 PM

Me neither! Been on the other side too many times so nice to get on the right side every while and then

**Jeff_Black** · 02-03-16, 09:32 PM

ATP Quito 250 R16 - Renzo Olivo vs Fernando Verdasco
Total Score: Over 22.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-04-16, 09:44 PM

ATP Montpellier QF - John Millman vs Paul Henri Matheui
Handicap: John Millman +1.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-04-16, 09:45 PM

ATP Quito QF - Tomaz Belluci vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Handicap: Pablo Carreno Busta +2.0 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-04-16, 09:47 PM

ATP Quito QF - Victor Estrello Burgos vs Renzo Olivo
Handicap: Renzo Olivo +1.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**kj8210** · 02-04-16, 09:55 PM

Hey Jeff out of curiosity which play do you like the most if you had to pick?? Also if you had to, is there any moneyline parlay you think has a decent shot? Just curious. I'm new to capping tennis so I appreciate the help!

**kj8210** · 02-04-16, 10:19 PM

what do you think about Gasquet ML and Agut ML parlayed @ 1.8?

**fitguy67** · 02-04-16, 10:41 PM

jeff, quick q about bet-sizing format...

A) always risk stated number of units

B) risk the stated number of units if a dog (ie. if price>=2)
but to win the stated number of units if a fave (ie. if price <2)
________
i'm quite sure it's A), given the decimal format, but i've learned to ask rather than just assume...

BTW, congrats on a really good AO

**posey_mvp** · 02-05-16, 01:34 AM

sorry im new to Tennis betting.. what does this mean exactly?

Pablo Carreno Busta +2.0 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle

What does + 2 @ 2.02 mean?

thanks.

**Jeff_Black** · 02-05-16, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by kj8210

Hey Jeff out of curiosity which play do you like the most if you had to pick?? Also if you had to, is there any moneyline parlay you think has a decent shot? Just curious. I'm new to capping tennis so I appreciate the help!

This is one of the games where one doesn't stand out in particular but I'm a bit of a fan of Olivo

**Jeff_Black** · 02-05-16, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

jeff, quick q about bet-sizing format...

A) always risk stated number of units

B) risk the stated number of units if a dog (ie. if price>=2)
but to win the stated number of units if a fave (ie. if price <2)
________
i'm quite sure it's A), given the decimal format, but i've learned to ask rather than just assume...

BTW, congrats on a really good AO

Thanks, had a few bad days otherwise was happy
And yes it's the A one
I know there are a lot of people who use the American system which is fine
If I used 5d more I would too

**Jeff_Black** · 02-05-16, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by posey_mvp

sorry im new to Tennis betting.. what does this mean exactly?

Pablo Carreno Busta +2.0 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle

What does + 2 @ 2.02 mean?

thanks.

Plus 2 is the handicap of the underdog. The bigger the handicap the bigger the underdog is.
To determine who covers the handicap you add up the scores of the players and if the difference is smaller then then 2 then my player covers it's handicap.
2.02 is my odds. For every $1 I risk on that handicap at those odds I receive $2.02 in return. Which is a $1.02 profit

**posey_mvp** · 02-05-16, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Plus 2 is the handicap of the underdog. The bigger the handicap the bigger the underdog is.
To determine who covers the handicap you add up the scores of the players and if the difference is smaller then then 2 then my player covers it's handicap.
2.02 is my odds. For every $1 I risk on that handicap at those odds I receive $2.02 in return. Which is a $1.02 profit

Does it mean your bet is for Busta money line to win?

**Jeff_Black** · 02-05-16, 10:02 AM

Busta doesn't have to win
he just has to cover the difference in the handicap in games won between him and his opponent

he can lose 6-7 6-2 6-7 with a +2 handicap and still cover it

**posey_mvp** · 02-05-16, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Busta doesn't have to win
he just has to cover the difference in the handicap in games won between him and his opponent

he can lose 6-7 6-2 6-7 with a +2 handicap and still cover it

Aww so it's just +2 games then?

**fitguy67** · 02-05-16, 10:57 AM

the default hc in tennis is "games"...it very-well may be "sets" sometime, but it'll always be stated clearly in such case..

"+1.5" = +1.5 games

"+1.5sets" or "+1.5s" = +1.5 sets

**Jeff_Black** · 02-09-16, 05:01 AM

Yup that^

A few close losses made me step back and take a short break. With the SB on I probably would have done plays yesterday if it wasn't on but not to be

ATP Memphis 250, John Millman vs Austin Krajicek
Handicap: Austin Krajicek +3.0 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play
Money line: Austin Krajicek @ 2.78 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Don't mind these odds. Krajicek has only lost once on clay since but I thought he was good on hards against Kei Nishikori. Millman has been playing good but I think with a turnaround of a few days and flying from Europe to America I think will be too much and he will be due for a letdown.

**Jeff_Black** · 02-13-16, 08:26 PM

ATP Rotterdam Final, Martin Klizan vs Gael Monfils
Handicap: Martin Klizan +4.0 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**fitguy67** · 02-14-16, 01:40 PM

nice hit on Klizan, Jeff...

once again Gael starts off dazzling/ends up fizzling

**Jeff_Black** · 02-17-16, 08:11 AM

Thanks, was surprised it was 4 and not 3.5 or 3 with the inconsistencies of Monfils

Delray Beach, R16 - Damir Dzumhur vs Grigor Dimitrov
Handicap: Damir Dzumhur +5.0 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Delray Beach, R16 - Steve Johnson vs Benjamin Becker
Handicap: Benjamin Becker +3.0 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-17-16, 08:18 AM

ATP Rio De Janiero, R16 - Fabio Fognini vs Daniel Gimeno Traver
Total Score: Over 21.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Rio De Jeniero, R16 - Albert Ramos Vinolas vs David Ferrer
Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +5.5 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**posey_mvp** · 02-17-16, 05:30 PM

man that Fognini game should of went over 21.5.. Instead he retired..

**Jeff_Black** · 02-17-16, 05:32 PM

Yeah good spot to be in to hit overs but Fognini is a dodgy prick heh

**Jeff_Black** · 02-17-16, 10:37 PM

Good day in Delray, unfortunate rain stopped play at Rio. Dzuhumir unfortunate not to win that game. 7s was crazy for a Dimitrov that hadn't played much...

ATP Marseille 250, R16 - Vincent Millot vs Benoit Paire
Handicap: Vincent Millto +4.0 @ 1.793 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marseille 250, R16 - Andrey Kuznetsov vs Quentin Halys
Handicap: Quentin Halys +3.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marseille 250, R16 - Ernests Gulbis vs Richard Gasquet
Handicap: Ernests Gulbis +3.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marseille 250, R16 - Nick Kyrgios vs Teymuraz Gabashvili
Handicap: Nick Kyrgios -3.5 @ 1.793 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-17-16, 10:55 PM

ATP Rio De Janiero R16, Inigo Cervantes vs Alexandr Dolgopolov
Handicap: Inigo Cervantes +4.0 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-20-16, 10:53 PM

ATP Marseille - Final: Nick Kyrgios vs Marin Cilic
Handicap: Marin Cilic +2.5 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-21-16, 01:28 AM

ATP Rio De Janiero 500: Pablo Cuevas vs Guido Pella
Handicap: Guido Pella +3.0 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-21-16, 01:30 AM

ATP Delray Beach 250, Final: Sam Querrey vs Rajeev Ram
Set Handicap: Sam Querrey -1.5 sets @ 2.23 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-21-16, 03:41 AM

ATP São Paulo 250: R32, Dusan Lajovic vs Luca Vanni
Handicap: Luca Vanni +2.0 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-22-16, 04:52 AM

ATP Dubai R1: Hyeon Chung vs Andreas Seppi
Total Score: Over 22.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 02-22-16, 04:55 AM

ATP Dubai R1: Malek Jaziri vs Mikhail Youhzny
Handicap: Makel Jaziri +5.0 @ 1.80 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play