Why is Fognini only -160?

**Goat Milk** · 10-21-15, 02:52 AM

I know Fognini is bad on indoor hard but Fognini is a different player now than at any point in his career

**DR225** · 10-21-15, 05:22 AM

Outside of Davis Cup (way more motivated), Fog has had five indoor hard court wins since 2003. So if you're feeling lucky...

**MGTennisTipster** · 10-21-15, 05:58 AM

Pretty sure DR225 meant 2013, Fabio only won 5 on Indoor since 2013 is true.

If Fabio wants to do a good performance this week he should have selected Moscow to play instead of Vienna. For sure Vienna has 500 points and courts aren't super fast but the courts in Moscow are really slow and great for his tennis. Fabio did well in Russian Indoors in 2012 when he reached St. Petersburg final and he could do well on them.

Regarding this game, the odds on Fognini have no value at all but you never know what Mathieu is going to bring to court. He's a super agressive player, trying to hit the ball at a very high pace but he sometimes (lately very often) he shows on court with the "self-destruction" mode on. Adding to this the French is always injured and is not unusual to see him retire due.

Good match to avoid but if a bet would have to be made would be on Mathieu (in a bookie that protect retirement) or Over

**DR225** · 10-21-15, 07:10 AM

yeah, I meant 2013, thanks for the correction and hopefully nobody bet Mathieu because of that typo.

**baseballstud** · 10-21-15, 07:25 AM

Fog shot up to -180 was st -140 at heritage

**Geoff_Saari** · 10-21-15, 09:56 AM

Foggy saved 5 straight break points on the first game of the 3rd set, atta boy !

$$

**Jeff_Black** · 10-21-15, 11:20 PM

Could make the same argument today with why the odds are decent against Stepanek with Fognini being in better form. But again he could get into a 3 setter like he did against Matheui.
I personally normally hate betting on Fognini as a favourite, and funnily enough fading Matheiu as a dog with a handicap for the above reasons but I fully expect him to beat Stepanek IMO.

**Dmoneytx** · 10-22-15, 07:07 AM

Hey Goat, that line looked odd to me too because Step is nothing like the player "he" used to be. Not even close. Step had lost 6 of his last 8 matches going into this contest with 1 win the other day against Novak, lol.. I saw he was at -165 & I jumped on it for my max to win 200 (my book blows-lol). I got up early & saw he was at -150! HUH??? Wish I had waited but I thought it would go up towards -200 maybe at match time.

Also, the last few lines that I took that went way down, ended up winning anyways. Sometimes the line movement in tennis is not worth looking into. If I like a player, I take him. The public loves the dogs too much IMO & that always helps out the odds on a small fav

**Dmoneytx** · 10-22-15, 07:10 AM

Just realized this thread was made for his first match with PHM. But I do agree with Jeff.. Fognini is always a tough guy to take, but I usually fade Step & this was another chance to do that and try to make some money. BOL ev1..

**Geoff_Saari** · 10-22-15, 07:46 AM

you need to switch books

**Dmoneytx** · 10-22-15, 07:57 AM

If you saw my balance and what I started with, you wouldn't switch either. I have a wonderful system working for me & I'm not messing with my golden egg.. They pay out so well, up to 2k is free by check & I am A ok with that

I am frustrated that they knocked my limits Down! But it has kept me even more in check, I have used even better money management on amount per play & number of plays..

Good luck on your wagers Geoff, hope you do well..