wed plays

[xdodger19]

errani - 140 over Lucic Baroni (2units)

Mladenovic -120 (1unit) over Gasparyan

Parlay +150 (1unit)
Begu
Anna Schmiedlova (this player may be the most improved womens player since last year) Her record is impressive, and she is 2-0 vs this opponent.

[frugalgambler]

Ugh, Errani on hardcourts against an experienced gamer like Lucic Baroni. Not so sure there, pal. I think Errani loses at least a set. GL though.

[xdodger19]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOGV0IGa6oA Errani vs Lucic Baroni 2014 Usopen highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40Y78zz6ygI Mazatlan


Errani is 2-0 Vs Lucic baroni

Errani ranked 18
Baroni ranked 69 (looked in bad form last match particularly in the first set)

Errani is 5 years younger 28-33

And 80 percent of matches take place on hard court, everyone is a hard court player
I saw a clay court in Puerto vallarta one time

Errani has played well in Asia 11-3
Her best surface is clay 29-12
Hard courts 17-11 63 percent
Indoors 10-3 77 percent

Lucic-baroni is 6-14 on hard courts

This even looks better looking at these stats, and possible a small play on Errani to win the first set
probably at about 6-3, 6-4
Sara is probably feeling very comfortable going into this

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, I get that Errani is a better player in general, but in this spot I am not so sure. Lucic gets an extra day of rest, and Errani just had a tough match against Coin, who is not a good player to say the least. Lucic usually does not like to lose in straight sets so I am liking the over, but not too much: this is the last week of the year and there is always danger that some of these chicks might want to pack it in, especially at this crappy little tourney. If anything, it is Errani who might run out of gas, her game is basically to be a human backboard. The price reflects this. Under normal conditions, Errani would be a ~-200 fav.

[xdodger19]

That is interesting because the line should be -200 particularly looking at those stats

[frugalgambler]

I think Errani was ~-250 vs Lucic in at the US Open in 2014. Anyways, this is WTA so lotsa weird things might happen. What I like about Lucic, this year at least, is that she is usually not a quitter.

[xdodger19]

A couple matches starting in a couple of hours, this is the time to watch some tennis before the season ends

[frugalgambler]

Well, I am on the West Coast so no WTA for me this week. It is usually not the faint of heart, especially if you have some coin riding on these chicks. But I do like waking up to check the results in the morn.

[xdodger19]

Sevastova +105 +1.5 sets (1unit)

[baseballstud]

Errani strong comeback was down 3-1 and other woman was serving in first. Nice first set W and Come baxk

[dlw902]

Errani strong comeback was down 3-1 and other woman was serving in first. Nice first set W and Come baxk

...errani lost the first set 6-3

[baseballstud]

...errani lost the first set 6-3

Thad my bad there. Totally misread that.

[frugalgambler]

Good call on Sevastova. I shoulda googled that chick, she is apparently a fairly experienced player coming back from an injury. Is she any good ? I see that Pliskova is struggling with her big time, even though she should be pretty motivated to win.

[xdodger19]

Man rough Day I should have taken sevostova to beat Pliskova in the full match at +275
Sevastova is one of the few players who wears shorts, She kind of plays like Danka Kovinic
but with more control a bit, Havent seen much, been looking to fade the Pliskova twins all year
because of unforced errors. They play alot alike as twins. K. Pliskova is hitting the ball out of bounds,
into the net, or a winner. Pliskova needs to work on playing out longer points, and let her opponents
make some mistakes on their own. Also she plays a little stiff.
And Initially i thought Tsurenko +1.5 sets was the play.

[frugalgambler]

I see that the Russian chicks are dominating this tourney. Only CSN & Flavia are not speaking Russian in the quarters. Interesting. CSN should be motivated plenty, Flavia not so much. She might even retire after a set or two, Timea-style. Last year, the final rounds in this tourney went 6-1 to the over. Not so sure about this year, though.

[xdodger19]

Flavia already resigned, she got the points necessary to make the finals tourney, cited a foot injury then dropped from the tourney

[frugalgambler]

Wowsa. That was fast and ridiculously brazen. She could have at least played a set tomorrow.