Hedge help

**Conqueror** · 07-06-15, 02:29 PM

Leave Sharapova alone. Hedge Az. Serena has a way with top 10 players.

**bossman71** · 07-06-15, 02:33 PM

How do you think I should hedge? Williams to win match (-360) or Tourney (-118)?

unit amount, etc? Both were played for 1U

such as full hedge, half. What should I take on opposite side?

like I said I'm new to this. Thanks for help

**SlaytheBook** · 07-06-15, 04:03 PM

while I agree that Serena is likely to beat Azarenka... this quarter-final match had to be anticipated and was always the critical hurdle to get past when wagering on this future. wouldn't recommend hedging at -360 now, as you then have 2 more matches to clear afterwards.

now you will have some very strong hedging options if Aza pulls the upset.

or, with 22 units to play with if she wins the next 3 games... you could at least wager 3.6 units to win 1 as a hedge in this match to ensure you at least break even after getting this far.

IMO - the whole purpose in a future is not to take the heavy #1 favorite in the later rounds due to the juice as getting past this round is what gave you the initial 22x. My guess is Aza has probably been a decent size fav up til now... so not a whole bunch of leverage you have in getting to this point.

good luck either way.

**Conqueror** · 07-06-15, 04:41 PM

I'd hedge with a Serena Tourney (-118). If she beats Azarenka, the only other player standing in her way is Sharapova and she's 17-2 vs her or 10-0 (L10). I think Serena was done a huge a favor with the exit of Kvitova whom I thought was the mostly likely to end Serena's run.

**Conqueror** · 07-06-15, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by Conqueror

I'd hedge with a Serena Tourney (-118). If she beats Azarenka, the only other player standing in her way is Sharapova and she's 17-2 vs her or 10-0 (L10). I think Serena was done a huge a favor with the exit of Kvitova whom I thought was the mostly likely to end Serena's run.

And even if Radwanska makes it from the other pool, Serena is 8-0 vs her.

**ManeOnFire** · 07-06-15, 05:17 PM

No offense but those were horrible bets my man.

**Tmuston Beltics** · 07-06-15, 06:47 PM

I would never hedge futures.

**bossman71** · 07-06-15, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by ManeOnFire

No offense but those were horrible bets my man.

They have made it this far haven't they...

**terpkeg** · 07-06-15, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by bossman71

They have made it this far haven't they...

Yes but at poor odds. If you took original stake and rolled over stake plus winnings through the first four rounds you'd be in a better position. You are not in a position to hedge because you have not won anything yet. You'd likely get similar odds on each just playing them from here on out rolling over winnings. Just think of it as you just made a bet on Azaranka, maybe at slightly better odds, like +360, and know you are curious if you should hedge Serena at -360. Hedge is double juice.

Only way it may work is if the original stakes were way larger than your average bet. Generally should only be hedging if you think the implied value in the original bet was large and you intentionally staked larger with the plan to hedge later or you only wanted to play wins quarter and option was not available, now you are willing to play out to win one unit and take the risk if favorites win out with the exception of your wagers, that you could get screwed and be stuck in the final with no profit to be had. I guess there are other reason like new information available which was unanticipated when wager made, but doesn't apply here.

I'm on Radwanska 65:1 and wouldn't consider hedging in QF.

**bossman71** · 07-06-15, 10:21 PM

Sorry didn't mean to come off mean... Thanks all for the insight. I can see as it is just the Qtr but basically I was just looking for an opinion as Serena is killing it. Wanted to get some suggestions on what you all thought.

I do like the fact of atleast covering my bet with Serena 3.6 Units as I do think Serena wins, but then defeats the purpose of the future.

**FlipsideRM** · 07-06-15, 11:22 PM

Let it ride dude, don't listen to these dummies