leans.....

[Snowball]

you know you got your work cut out for you when you've
peroused the card and have these for "leans" ........

lajovic 745
simon -170
mahut 345
rosol 325
bellucci 645
monfils -660
fognini -350
kania 240
safarova -490
hesse 890
putintseva 370
cornet -118
lucic 1170
kerber -610
ivanovic -820
hercog 115
azarenka -710
errani -255
goerges 525
pliskova -335
diyas -145

[brodie]

wawrinka is going to destroy lajovic

[DR225]

without doing any research at all, these picks look good to me:

Agut -425
Monaco -255
Tsonga -2.5 sets (-425 -seems a bit too high)
fog -350
gulbis -470 (can't ever back Mahut on clay and gulbis has to turn it around sometime)
beck -325
Muguruza -310
that russian Gavrilova -114
pliskova -335 (keep expecting her to lose as she should be -500, also had low odds last match)

maybe Stakhovsky +1.5 sets (-145)
maybe Belluchi +7 -105
maybe Cuevas (although he had a very lose set vs Groth, which is shocking)-104
maybe Vesnina -145

[Snowball]

Tier 1 monfils -660, fognini -350, kerber -610, azarenka -710, errani -255, pliskova -305
Tier 2 bellucci 645, kania 240, putintseva 385, ivanovic -820, vesnina -145, goerges 545, safarova -675
Tier 3 lajovic 745, mahut 345, cornet -112, simon -170, lucic 1170

[Snowball]

maybe a thread just to post leans, not plays...

[Vinnie Paz]

How can you. Play gulbis -470? Maybe he wins and turns it around but at that price why bother

[DR225]

I'm mostly a parlay + live bettor. And my parlays are usually at least 7 picks (only if there's at least 2-3 -110 picks, otherwise they will be 12 or so picks). I would be very shocked if Mahut wins tomorrow. Gulbis was on a really terrible streak but all the guys he lost to are much better than Mahut on clay. Out of Thiem, Vesely, Goffin, Paire and Haider-Maurer, maybe Mahut beats Haider-Maurer but I would fade him in that spot. I watched part of Gulbis's match vs Sijsling and although the error count wasn't that great, there was enough effort on his part for me to be confident in this one.

and those picks above were just leans. I haven't looked at head to heads or clay records or anything lol.

Why do you like Cornet? She has been so inconsistent lately. The only good clay win she has (other than old Vinci) is over a tanking Halep. And she hasn't had much success here, despite the home crowd. I was surprised to see her come back after dropping the 1st set as she hasn't shown much fight lately.

Tier 1:

Muguruza -280 over Giorgi

Mugu is better suited to clay, Giorgi is way too error prone and while her serve can be strong, it loses her games against top competition more often than it wins them. Neither is in the best of form, Gorgi has only beaten Cornet this clay season in Davis Cup. Mugu only has a couple wins but mostly faced better competition.

Gulbis- already wrote it above.

fog -350. I simply hope that he wants to win and isn't injured. He should crush Paire but if there's one guy on the atp you should be weary of trusting, it's fog.

Agut -470. Agut has been really reliable for me. Rosol is almost the perfect opponent for him too, as Agut extends rallys and unless Rosol is playing really great, the errors will catch up to him. Rosol did play pretty good vs Wawa a week or so ago but I think that was a much quicker clay.

last is pliskova. I have no idea why she isn't getting the same respect as the other top players. Maybe it's the clay and her aggressiveness works against her? That serve is a major weapon though and -350 ish vs Mitu is a gift.

Thanks for any critiques. Also sorry if this isn't what you had in mind for the thread. I usually only make my plays an hour or so before the matches start, so at the moment these are all leans. Although I will probably use them in a parlay with tonights games.

also

*************

disclaimer, I'm not a tennis expert (probably obvious). I would implore you to value the leans of pretty much anyone on this forum over mine lol.

**************

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Was thinking the same earlier today. Plugged them all in out of curiosity to see what it would pay, but haven't played anything yet. Probably throw away anything more than -1100 and just use some open spots, but these were my zero effort point and click plays.

[DR225]

anyone have a magnifying glass handy? lol

[Snowball]

maybe a good thread to throw around ideas
without placing "official" bets..
my official bets are in my thread already, but
sometimes it's good to discuss before reaching conclusions.

Concerning Mahut, he'll probably lose, but you need to remember
this is the FRENCH open, he will be motivated.. and have the crowd.
It's only Gulbis, after all. And Bellucci is playing on full tilt.. he can beat
Nishikori if A-Game Kei is not 95% there for any reason.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

anyone have a magnifying glass handy? lol

Sorry man, screenshots are pesky. Was mostly just obnoxious chalk:
Sushi boy -790
Agut - 407
Tsonga - 4891
Bird-Mann -2775
Monfils -633
Fed -3561
Halepeno - 1777
Navarro -1545
Sam Biceps Stosur - 1223
Pova -2775
= +122.6

[Vinnie Paz]

Halepeno, lmao! Never thought of that!

And pliskova not as good on clay, as evident by odds. I will look to fade her but it's still too early.

I'm gonna go ahead and trust that asshole fog this 1 time.

Any dogs or upsets anyone like? Fading beck/lisicki/makarova tomorrow and will continue if they end up winning.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Played 2 parlays with open spots, a stupid juice one (faves > -1000) and a smaller one that I started with 2h Cleveland Cavs team total o48 (kick him when he's down bet against Atl).

Parlay #1 is Cleveland live (winner) + Bird + Fed + Krygios + Ferrer + 7 open spots

Parlay #2 is Cleveland 2 h team total over (winner) + Agut + Monfils + 4 open spots. Hopefully both still standing when the dust settles Thursday.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Halepeno thoroughly not giving a penetrate. Glad I struck the bitches from the card

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Nice 1st set choke job by RBA in progress

[DR225]

it's been a bloodbath for me so far. I hope RBA can turn things around...

[Snowball]

Lucic and Putintseva nice

Fognini puke

Makarova undervalued ????

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Makarova line kinda gives me the shakes. Agree she is undervalued... and line went the wrong way. Injury, maybe? I'm leaning towards a late add on Kohls

[Snowball]

Makarova was fine over Chirico. Pereira being overpriced because she's great on clay
but doesn't play the same level of opponent. Makrova should overpower her.
I also like Vesnina as Hercog has been slumping and is getting older.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

At least the 2 clowns dropping sets are in the same parlay... Agut you puta

[JohnnyRudeboy]

LOL @ Kohls. Glad that proved to just be a lean

[Vinnie Paz]

Isner

[Snowball]

Isner

Chardy beat Isner on Hard in 2013.
The only other match was a retire in 2009.
Chardy will have the crowd (and possibly the chair) backing him.
Is it worth the risk ? Frenchmen went 5-0 today.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Makarova was fine over Chirico. Pereira being overpriced because she's great on clay
but doesn't play the same level of opponent. Makrova should overpower her.
I also like Vesnina as Hercog has been slumping and is getting older.

Pliskova vs Mitu looks to be a similar situation tomorrow.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

I do think Isner is worth a small play actually. His return game seems to have turned a corner and bombs away on serve as always. He definitely plays up during the slams and masters and plays way down in the other tourneys, too. Don't like fading the home team, but Chardy will lose eventually so may as well here.

[brodie]

i love the americans sock and isner to win. and i like steve johnson/querrey over rojer/tecau

[Vinnie Paz]

Put $10 on Sousa to beat andy lol

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Man, I'm glad these are just leans

[Snowball]

Sock looks befuddled out there.

[Vinnie Paz]

Chardy looking good, nice call there snow.....for now obviously

[Snowball]

Im more concerned with Sock.. although he does appear more confident now.

[Vinnie Paz]

Just took Vekic/cuevas/vesnina

[JohnnyRudeboy]

That's not a lean then

[Snowball]

see Sock facing Coric next.....
yikes.... wouldn't take him there,but probably can't trust Coric either.
Gabashvili Rosol is coin flip.
Mahut Simon no value.
Stevie J vs Stan - want to take Stevie for fun but doubt he wins.
Monfils Cuevas I'll skip.
Paire Berdych no value.
Tsonga has value over Andujar.
Mayer could throw Chili for a loop.
Nadal Joker cruise , no value.
Chardy has value over Goffin.
Kyrgios has value but probably won't beat Andy.
Lucic has value over Cornet.
Svitolina has value over Beck.
Safarova Lisicki pass.
Makarova should handle Vesnina but not enough value.
both Kerber and Muguruza have value - tough call, lean Kerber.
Goerges has value over Falconi.
Errani has value over Petkovic.
Kvitova has value over Begu.
Azarenka has value over Serena.
Mitu and Schiavone both have value - tough call, lean Schiavone.
Bacs has value over Keys, but I'd like to see more.
Pironkova possible over Stephens who could be due to choke.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Agreed on Tsonga and Scuba Stevie.

While I fully expect Monfils to gut out another W, dude seems both fully capable and completely unwilling to best anyone in straights, so maybe spread/set options but I'm stuck till 5D starts offering +2.5 sets.

Makarova to win her quarter did catch my eye, however.